Tag: nfl 2021` free agency

Grading DT Davon Godchaux’s deal with the New England Patriots: B

Bill Belichick has added some help to the interior of the New England defensive line in the form of Davon Godchaux. Smart move?

Bill Belichick entered free agency with the third-most cap space of any NFL franchise, and he is not waiting to spread that money around. First the team reached a deal with tight end Jonnu Smith, looking to address a position group that has struggled to produce the past few seasons, and then Belichick added nose tackle Davon Godchaux.

Adam Schefter — with a nod to agent Drew Rosenhaus — reported on the deal for ESPN:

This deal is perhaps the quintessential Belichick move. The venerable head coach and defensive mind has crafted a number of defenses build around a stout presence at nose tackle. Think back to players like Vince Wilfork and Ted Washington who manned the heart of his 3-4 defensive fronts for so many seasons. While it is true that base defenses such as the 3-4 have gone the way of the dodo, the Patriots and Belichick do utilize a number of three-man fronts even in their sub packages, whether in 3-3-5 groupings or even 3-2-6.

That requires the presence of a nose tackle up front who can command double-teams and even two-gap if asked to depending on the call. Godchaux made the transition from more of an attacking 3-technique during his early days to a read-and-react 1-technique the past two seasons under Brian Flores, who of course spent time in New England with Belichick. Godhaux taled about the transition prior to the 2019 season:

I’m very comfortable. The first couple days, (I was) a little rusty. Each and everybody was a little rusty. Speaking of myself, a little rusty. I’m coming out here each and every day, getting the techniques, going through the growing pains of the 3-4, 4-3 defense.

The ultimate goal is to be a team player (at) my nose position. If I’m in 1-tech, play A-gap, 2-I, play the A-gap, if I move to a three-play B-gap. It’s the same thing we’re doing. We’re playing the same gap. We just went from attacking to read.

There are two reasons that keep this from being a higher-graded signing. First, Godchaux is coming off a bicep injury that ended his season early last year, although he was playing at a high level before his year ended. Second, we are talking about a player whose strength is helping against the run. Godchaux’s four-year career has resulted in total of three sacks, so if the Patriots are going to get pressure on the opposing passer it will have to come from elsewhere.

Plus, adding him to the middle of their defense might mean that Lawrence Guy and/or Adam Butler are going to be moving on from New England. Both players were huge parts of the defensive line last seaon for the Patriots.

Still, this is a textbook Belichick move, and it comes at a position he values. Even in the modern NFL.

Grading Jonnu Smith’s deal with the New England Patriots: A-

The New England Patriots have a new weapon for Cam Newton in the form of Jonnu Smith. Was this a good move?

Last year a hot topic of discussion around the New England Patriots was whether the team had enough weapons around quarterback Cam Newton.

Newton is back in the fold, having reached a one-year deal with the Patriots last week. Now, Bill Belichick has added a weapon. It comes in the form of tight end Jonnu Smith, who has reached a deal to join the Patriots and Cam Newton in Foxborough. The deal was reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter:

Smith is coming off his best season as a professional. Last year he caught 41 passes for 448 yards and eight touchdowns, all of which represent career-high numbers for him.

What makes Smith intriguing as an offensive weapon is the variety to his game. He can serve as both a move-type TE, aligning outside and even in a Y-iso alignment as a pseudo-X receiver, or in the more traditional in-line role. That variety makes him a matchup nightmare for defenses, and it plays out in the passing game. Particularly when you can see him line up next to the tackle and then attack over the middle:

Or you can see him align to the outside and make a great adjustment on a low throw in the end zone for a touchdown:

 

This is a great adjustment for a wide receiver to make, let alone a tight end.

Since losing Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have struggled to get production out of the tight end position. That is what makes this deal a huge move for them. They drafted a pair of tight ends last season — Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene — but struggled to get any production out of the rookies. Given that it sometimes takes time for rookies to acclimate at the tight end position, Smith gives the Patriots a true option at that position in 2021. Plus, Josh McDaniels has shown an ability to maximize tight end production, and use those players wisely to create — and exploit — matchups.

This is a great signing for New England.

Grading G Pat Elflein’s deal with the Carolina Panthers: C+

Interior offensive lineman Pat Elflein has reached a deal to join the Carolina Panthers. Was this a worthwhile investment for the Panthers?

The Carolina Panthers made an addition to their offensive line at the start of free agency, reaching a deal with guard Pat Elflein. After spending time with both the Minnesota Vikings and the New York Jets last season, Elflein is reportedly heading to the NFC South. The terms of the deal were announced on Twitter by Adam Schefter and referenced Elflein’s agent, Jonathan Feinsod.

According to Schefter, the deal is for three years and $13.5 million, including $6 million fully guaranteed.

Elflein was drafted by the Vikings in the third round of the 2017 NFL draft after playing his college football at Ohio State. He earned the starting job at center for Minnesota as a rookie, before shifting over to guard when the team drafted Garrett Bradbury in the first round of the 2019 draft to play center.

In 2020, Elflein moved from left guard to right guard and started in the season opener. But a thumb injury put him on injured reserve, and he was later waived by the organization. The New York Jets signed him and he started the final six games of the season, but his performance was unsettled at best. Over those six games Elflein allowed a sack and 16 quarterback hurries.

His versatility makes this an intriguing addition, given his experience at center and both guard spots. That could prove beneficial as Carolina looks to restructure their offense, perhaps with a new face at quarterback. But he will need to vastly improve on last year’s performance to make this a worthwhile investment for the Panthers.

Grading EDGE Romeo Okwara’s re-signing with the Lions: A-

Romeo Okwara is returning to the Detroit Lions. Here’s why this was a great move for Detroit’s defense.

The list of available pass-rushers has decreased by one, as the Detroit Lions have agreed to a deal with Romeo Okwara for the defender to stay with the organization. According to Ian Rapoport, the parties have agreed to a three-year deal worth $39 million dollars.

Last year was a breakout campaign for Okwara, who posted career-high numbers in a few different defensive categories. In his fifth season, the undrafted Notre Dame alum posted 10 sacks, 29 quarterback hits, 30 quarterback hurries, nine knockdowns, and three forced fumbles. Long and lanky at 6-foot-4 and 236 pounds, Okwara uses his long legs like pistons off the snap for speed and momentum, and he can easily use his hands to get choppy with opposing offensive tackles to run by and get to the quarterback.

Okwara might not be the most impressive athlete on the edge, but his technique is sound as highlighted here by The Scouting Academy:

This move is a solid decision for the Detroit Lions for a number of reasons. First, with Markus Golden returning to the Arizona Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bringing back Shaq Barrett, the number of potential pass-rushers available on the market is dwindling fast.

Second, this incoming class of rookies at the EDGE is intriguing, but uncertain. For example Jaelan Phillips might be the best of the group but he comes with some questions about his medical history. Azeez Ojulari is talented, but needs to fill in some of the blanks around that athleticism. Jayson Oweh is incredibly athletic, but people will question his lack of production in 2020. Joseph Ossai is explosive, but needs refinement. Rather than having to dip into that position early — and roll the dice — the Lions bring back a player they know can produce for them.

This is a solid move that allows Detroit to focus elsewhere in the draft and during free agency.

Grading Dak Prescott’s four-year, $160 million extension: A+ for Dak, D- for Cowboys

Dak Prescott made out like a bandit with his new contract, because the Cowboys waited too long.

On Monday, it was announced that the Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott had agreed to a new deal worth $160 million over the next four years. Since the new deal can’t be official until the new league year, the Cowboys will have to place the franchise tag on Prescott for the second straight season — this will happen on Tuesday, March 9, the deadline for the tag to be applied, just to keep him safe from other NFL teams until March 17, when everything turns over. But it gives Dallas needed security at the game’s most important position, and it gives Prescott the earning power he deserves.

As a fourth-round pick in 2016 with a slotted financial picture based on draft order, Prescott made a grand total of $1,620,000 in his first three seasons. His base salary “jumped” to $2.025 million in 2019, which was still a massive bargain considering what he was giving the team in performance. So when the Cowboys gave him the tag in 2020 because a long-term deal could not be worked out, the one-year guaranteed salary of $31.409 million still seemed like relative chump change if you considered the dollars-to-talent ratio in the years before.

And as great as Prescott was in his first four seasons, 2020 was supposed to be the year he broke out into the stratosphere. Not that he had much to prove — from 2016 through 2019, his first four years in the NFL, the Mississippi State product had already done more than enough to be considered a franchise quarterback. In those four seasons combined, Prescott ranked seventh in the league in passing attempts (2,071), seventh in completions (1,363), sixth in passing yards (15,778) and eighth in passing touchdowns (97). His 36 interceptions tied with Matthew Stafford for the sixth-lowest total over that time among quarterbacks with at least 1,500 passing attempts. Prescott also ranked sixth in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (6.92), seventh in yards per completion (11.58) and seventh in passer rating (97.0).

So, Prescott had firmly established himself as a top-10 quarterback in every possible way even before the Cowboys selected speed receiver CeeDee Lamb out of Oklahoma with the 17th pick in the first round of the 2020 draft. Adding Lamb to a receiver corps that was already stacked with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup? It appeared that Prescott was about ready to dive into the top five.

And until Prescott’s season ended in the fifth game of the season against the Giants due to a gruesome ankle injury, things were headed in that direction. Through the first five weeks of the season, Prescott ranked first in attempts (222), first in completions (151), first in passing yards (1,856) and tied for seventh in passing touchdowns (nine). While he also had four interceptions, there was little doubt that control of Dallas’ offense had switched from running back Ezekiel Elliott to Prescott.

The injury complicated negotiations as Prescott recovered, and it was thought that the second franchise tag was going to be more than a bridge until a larger-scale contract could be made official. But it’s good for the Cowboys that they made the deal, because the cap ramifications of a second tag would have been catastrophic. NFL rules dictate that a second franchise tag has to have a number at least 120% above the first franchise tag salary, so the Cowboys would have been on the hook for $37.68 million. Only Atlanta’s Matt Ryan ($40,912,500) would have presented a larger single-season cap obligation in 2021.

Prescott gets a per-year average of $40 million, which is the second-highest in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes’ $45 million. Prescott also broke Russell Wilson’s record for the most first-year money in any NFL deal.

Prescott’s $126 million guarantee is the highest three-year guarantee in NFL history, exceeding Deshaun Watson’s $124 million. Per Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com, Prescott’s cap figure will drop from $37.68 million to either $25.5 million or $22.2 million depending on the presence or absence of void years in the contract. In the end, as Fitzgerald also pointed out, Jones and the Cowboys really stuck it to themselves by not successfully negotiating a contract extension with Prescott before the first franchise tag became necessary. Dallas’ financial commitment to Prescott will average $38.3 million per season with $157.4 million in guarantees, and there’s no question that would have been less before Mahomes’ 10-year, $450 million contract extension last July reset the market for every superstar quarterback.

Still, the Cowboys escaped the fire of their own making to a point, and Dak Prescott will be paid what the market will bear based on his performance and potential. As contentious as this has been all along for no good reason, that amounts to a win-win situation — it’s just that Jerry Jones negotiated himself out of a much better deal.

Grading Aaron Jones’ four-year, $48 million deal with the Packers: B-

The Packers were right to retain running back Aaron Jones, but the money involved complicates the wisdom of the deal.

Nothing gets Football Twitter going more than a good old-fashioned debate about running back value.

When news broke on Sunday afternoon that the Green Bay Packers were re-signing Aaron Jones to a four-year deal worth $48 million the virtual ink was barely dry on the Ian Rapoport tweet announcing the deal before your timeline was probably filled with various tweets condemning the deal, and perhaps the Packers as well.

First, the actual numbers. According to the NFL Network, Jones’ contract is valued at $48 million, with reportedly $13 million in the form of a signing bonus. That is expected to be the only guaranteed money in the deal. Therefore, releasing Jones would cost the Packers only the remaining signing bonus each season, which prorates over the four years of the contract.

As such, it is not an absurdly ridiculous deal for a running back. Yes, it does make Jones the sixth-highest paid RB in the league. But as we have seen over the past few seasons, Jones is becoming a well-rounded running back, perfect for the modern game. Matt LaFleur is using him as a receiver, both out of the backfield and aligned wide before the snap. When you have a player that can do things like this:

That is more than just a between-the-tackles thumper. That is a true offensive weapon. So while the top-line number looks huge for a running back (in this economy?!) consider what Jones is likely to earn over the time he spends in Green Bay, balance that with what he brings to the offense, and understand that it is not a situation where the sky is falling.

As for why, given this, the deal does not get a higher grade. Well, the Packers will need to make some complementary moves to make the numbers work:

When you start having to make other deals to get the numbers to click on an extension for a running back, that is going to dock you a grade or two…