Tag: nfl 2021` free agency

Grading TE Hunter Henry’s deal with the New England Patriots: A-

Bill Belichick continued his spending ways on Tuesday, reaching a deal with another tight end. Is their vision coming into focus?

The puzzle pieces are beginning to illustrate the vision for 2021 in New England.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots continued their spending on Tuesday, adding yet another tight end to their offense. After reaching a deal with Jonnu Smith at the start of the legal tampering period the team doubled down at tight end, reaching an agreement with the other top tight end option available in Hunter Henry.

Adam Schefter from ESPN reported the deal Tuesday morning:

There is an injury concern with Henry, who has missed time during his career including the entire 2018 campaign due to a torn ACL, but you cannot argue with the production. After tearing that ACL Henry came back and put together perhaps his best season as a pro, catching 55 passes for 652 yards and five touchdowns. This past season, as the Los Angeles Chargers transitioned to rookie Justin Herbert, Henry was just as productive, catching 60 passes (a career-high) for 613 yards and four touchdowns.

One of the things that Henry does well is attack the middle of the field. Whether on deep curl routes, crossing routes or sit routes over the football, Henry makes himself available for his quarterback as either a primary or a secondary option. That ability, coupled with Herbert’s consistency at attacking leverage in the secondary, led to Henry converting 35 first downs last season. This play against the New York Jets is a perfect example:

So that is what Henry brings to the table, but how does he fit in?

The Patriots are turning back the clock.

No, they are not going to run the Wing-T — although you know Belichick the football historian could view that as a Plan B — but rather the Patriots are trying to tap into what they did offensively a decade ago, when they used a two tight end package to force defenses into difficult decisions, and punish them no matter what they choose.

As I argued yesterday, before the Henry signing, 12 personnel was their vision for 2021:

For one, this might be a window into the return of 12 personnel in New England. After all, the Patriots drafted a pair of tight ends last year, in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. The addition of Smith could mean that Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are envisioning a lot of two TE packages in the season ahead. At this point it is important to remember that Belichick has raved about Smith in the past, and about his blocking:

He’s just a really good tight end. Can do a lot of things. Blocks well. Runs well. Is a good receiver. Played him at tailback, he looked pretty good back there. He’s a very athletic player. Hard to tackle. Catches the ball well. (He’s) great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I mean, I can’t imagine anyone better than him after the catch.

So you can easily envision a scenario where Smith is moved around in this hypothetical 12 personnel package, with either Asiasi or Keene taking on the more traditional, in-line type of role. Or they can put both Smith and the other TE into the in-line role, given Smith’s blocking prowess. It gives the Patriots a ton of options, and forces the defense to pick their poison. Do they treat such a personnel grouping as a “heavier” group and play base? If so, New England can spread them out given Smith’s versatility. Do they treat it as a lighter package and play nickel or dime? If that happens, New England can line up and run the ball against those sub packages.

Beyond all that, the simple fact is that the Patriots have struggled to get production from the tight end position since the departure of Rob Gronkowski, and the deal with Smith is a nod towards fixing that problem.

As for the receivers, this could be a move in the direction of that 12 personnel package. Both Bourne and Agholor have spent time in the slot as well as in the “Z” receiver mold, and both skillsets are relied upon in that 12 personnel grouping. Remember last year’s discussion of Justin Jefferson, and how he struggled to beat press? That is not as big an issue when you are aligned either in the slot, or as a wide receiver in a 12 personnel package when by alignment you can create that two-way go situation. We again could be seeing something similar being carved out for the Patriots next season.

All of that remains true today, only substitute Hunter Henry in for the Devin Asiasi/Dalton Keene option across from Jonnu Smith. New England is building a 12 personnel package for the year ahead, and envisioning an offense that punishes defenses whether they stay in base personnel, or roll out a sub defensive package.

Belichick has opened up his wallet, and is turning back the clock. It might seem like a lot of money, but as the picture becomes clearer something else is coming into focus: It might just work.

Grading DB Rayshawn Jenkins’ deal with the Jaguars: B

You may not know who Rayshawn Jenkins is, but the Jaguars’ new safety projects very well as a deep-third pass defender.

If there’s been a “Wait, WHAT?” deal in the 2021 free-agency cycle so far, it’d have to be the four-year, $35 million contract agreed upon by former Chargers defensive back Rayshawn Jenkins and the Jaguars. Jenkins gets an $8 million signing bonus, $16 million in guaranteed money, and while his 2021 cap hit is just $3,968,750 once the contract is signed in the new league year, the hits increase precipitously in 2022 and beyond.

Unless you’re a major Chargers fan, or a Jaguars fan trying to catch up, you may not be familiar with Jenkins at all. But he has been a good player over the last two seasons — in 2019, per Pro Football Focus, he allowed six receptions on 11 targets for 161 yards, 21 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 60.0. Jenkins followed that up with 41 catches allowed on 58 targets in 2020 for 362 yards, 224 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, two picks, and an opponent passer rating of 89.9.

Not bad at all, especially given Jenkins’ versatility. He’s a decent slot defender, and he really shows up as a deep-third safety, where most of his interceptions come from. As he showed on this 2019 interception of a Patrick Mahomes pass to receiver Demarcus Robinson, Jenkins is a click-and-close deep safety with the recovery speed to jump routes all over the place.

Per Sports Info Solutions, Jacksonville’s defense allowed 24 completions on 67 attempts for 850 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions against passes of 20 or more air yards, so parking Jenkins at free safety (which the Chargers didn’t do enough last season) would be a big help. Last season, Jenkins allowed just two completions of 20 or more air yards on nine attempts for 54 yards, and no touchdowns.

Grading QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s deal with the Washington Football Team: A

The Washington Football Team has a new quarterback. Here’s why Ryan Fitzpatrick is a great move for the organization.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has a new home, and he is entering the next training camp of his career as the expected starting quarterback of a playoff team.

Last season the Washington Football Team finished with a 7-9 record, and that was enough to propel them to the NFC East title and a home game in the first round of the playoffs. They would lose that contest — to the eventual Super Bowl Champions — and rewarded the starting quarterback in that game, Taylor Heinicke, with a new contract.

But understanding that the franchise cannot enter the 2021 campaign with just Heinicke as the potential starting quarterback, and sitting 19th overall in the first round, perhaps out of range of the top rookies in the incoming class, the team needed to make another move. That move has been made, as the organization reached an agreement with Fitzpatrick on a one-year deal worth $10 million and potentially up to $12 million with incentives:

Why is this a great signing for Washington? Two big reasons. First, should Heinicke somehow emerge as the starting quarterback Fitzpatrick is the rare veteran QB who has been willing to take on the role of mentor:

With his experience — and as we saw last season — Fitzpatrick can still step in with limited practice time and lead an offense. After all, this is the quarterback almost single-handedly threw the Miami Dolphins into playoff contention, and later in the season threw the Las Vegas Raiders out of playoff contention in dramatic fashion:

And that leads us to the second bit of evidence bolstering why this is a great move for Washington: Fitzpatrick can still play. He might not put up massive numbers, but he is a veteran quarterback who can run the offense and accept defeat on a given play. Why might that matter? As we saw last season the strength of the Football Team is their defense. Sometimes, taking a sack or throwing the ball away on third down and letting the punt team come on the field might be a good move for Washington.

This move gives the team much needed stability at the quarterback position, a veteran who has been willing to take on that mentorship role for younger players, and it allows the organization to address other needs in both free agency and the draft. Washington still might draft a quarterback at 19 should one fall. But they are not forced into that position. They have options. That is always a good thing.

 

 

Bill Belichick opened up the wallet, but will it work?

Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots opened up their wallets as free agency began. Will the moves work?

The New England Patriots entered the start of the NFL’s legal tampering period — whatever that is — with the third-most cap space in the league. They did not hesitate to put that capital to use. During a whirlwind Monday the Patriots reached agreements with a number of new faces in a bevy of deals worth (potentially) north of $170 million dollars. So that begs the question:

Will it work?

Before we try and answer this question first, a quick recap. The day began with the Patriots reaching an agreement with tight end Jonnu Smith. They then added defensive tackle Davon Godchaux. Linebacker/EDGE Matthew Judon was next, followed by Jalen Mills. As day turned to night, Belichick addressed the wide receiver room, reaching deals with both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. That is a ton of player movement. They even snuck in one final deal before the night was over, adding defensive lineman Henry Anderson.

But, Mark. Will it work?

The honest response to that is: Ask me in six months. Because right now a lot of the analysis is speculative, including the grading that myself and Doug Farrar tried to assign to each move. But these are just pieces to a puzzle, and Belichick is putting that puzzle together without showing us what the finished product is supposed to look like.

So we will not know for months whether these moves are going to work, or are going to fail spectacularly.

But we can gleam a few things from them.

Free agency and the draft are the two periods of time during the NFL season when you get a true sense of how a team feels about their roster, and about the various position groups. You can say you love your tight end room during media availabilities, but making a big signing at that position says otherwise. You can say you love the wide receiver room, but adding two different players on the first day of free agency speaks volumes.

Furthermore, what a team does in free agency also illustrates what they believe their true needs are. Consider this, from Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus:

We all love the draft, but as Renner continues to point out:

If you have a need, it is better to address it via free agency. Unless you are willing to wait and let players develop.

That might also be a lesson. Pin that thought.

So let’s walk through what Belichick might be telling us with these moves, as well as illustrating how they can work out, and how they might just fail.

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Grading DL Denico Autry’s deal with the Titans: B+

The Titans still need more pass-rush help, but agreeing to terms with veteran lineman Denico Autry will move things along.

In 2020, only the Bengals  and Jaguars had fewer sacks than the Titans’ 19. Only the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Jaguars had fewer pressures than Tennessee’s 119. and only the Lions had a lower pressure rate per snap than the Titans’ 17.6%. Tennessee tried to fix its obvious pass-rush issues by signing Jadeveon Clowney to a one-year deal and hoping that Harold Landry would finally become what he was always supposed to be, but it didn’t quote work.

So, general manager Jon Robinson added a more reliable quarterback disruptor in veteran lineman Denico Autry. Per Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network, the Titans and Autry agreed to a three-year, $21.5 million deal with $9 million in guaranteed money. Given Autry’s consistent production of late, it’s a great deal, though it doesn’t completely solve Tennessee’s issues on the edge.

Signed by the Raiders as an undrafted free agent out of Mississippi State in 2014, Autry really started to hit his stride when the Colts signed him to a three-year, $17.8 million contract in 2018. Autry started his Colts career as a hybrid inside/outside defensive lineman, and moved to more of an edge presence in 2020 after the Colts traded their first-round pick for former 49ers defensive lineman DeForest Buckner.

In that role, he had nine sacks, five quarterback hits, 26 quarterback hurries, and 28 stops. Both as an edge-rusher and as an interior quarterback disruptor, Autry brings a heat-seeking ability to swim through gaps, and aggressive speed to get to the quarterback. He’s worth a good contract as an edge-rusher alone at this point in his career, but the smart defensive coordinator with Autry on his roster will move him all over the line.

Grading WR Kendrick Bourne’s deal with the New England Patriots: B

Bill Belichick added yet another wide receiver, reaching an agreement with Kendrick Bourne. What does he bring to the New England Patriots?

Please Bill please. I’m just trying to eat dinner. Save some moves for tomorrow.

It seems, however, that Bill Belichick is not going to listen to me, as the New England Patriots continue their spending spree as the NFL’s legal tampering period kicks off. Having already reached deals with players such as Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor on the offensive side of the football, the Patriots dipped into the skill position group again on Monday, reaching an agreement with wide receiver Kendrick Bourne:

Bourne is an athletic receiver who checks one of the Patriots’ biggest boxes when it comes to evaluating the position: Change-of-direction skills. He posted a three-cone time of 6.73 seconds back in 2017 at the Scouting Combine, and over the years New England has often targeted players with good times in that drill, as they measure a player’s ability to quickly change directions. In their offense, with so many option routes, that skill is a prerequisite to playing the position.

Like many of their signings, Bourne is coming off his best season as a pro. He was targeted 74 times in the passing game, catching 49 passes for 667 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Every statistic there but for the touchdown receptions represents a career-high mark for Bourne.

In the discussion of Nelson Agholor’s deal, it was pointed out that the Patriots might have a glut of players who operate out of the slot. While Bourne’s change-of-direction skills might also peg him for that alignment, his size and ability against press coverage might give him the chance to play on the outside, even as the X receiver in some of New England’s packages. So while the Agholor signing might have been a reach, this move by the Patriots seems like a smarter investment.

Plus, now all of New England media gets to make reference to Jason Bourne and the Bourne movies, so there’s that.

Now, now I’m going to eat dinner.

Grading WR Nelson Agholor’s deal with the Patriots: C+

The New England Patriots added a wide receiver on the first day of tampering. Is Nelson Agholor the answer to fans’ prayers?

Bill Belichick had money to spend, and he’s going to spend it.

A busy day in New England continues as the Patriots made another addition, agreeing to a deal with free agent wide receiver Nelson Agholor. After struggling to make the most of his opportunities in Philadelphia with the Eagles — and struggling to catch the football at times — Agholor joined the Las Vegas Raiders a season ago and had something of a breakout campaign.

Last year with Derek Carr, Agholor turned into more of a vertical threat. That led to his increased production, as he caught 48 passes for 896 yards and eight touchdowns. That represented a career-high mark for yardage, tied his career-high mark for touchdowns in a season, and Agholor averaged a whopping 18.7 yards per reception, over six yards higher than his previous best of 12.4 yards per reception back in 2017.

Sounds great, right?

Well…

Let’s consider this. Spotrac’s market value model projected Agholor to receiver a two-year deal for $19.5 million, working out to just under $10 million per year. Pro Football Focus projected something in the realm of $15 million for two years, coming in under $8 million per.

Of course, this contract number requires the usual caveats. It looks like $13 million per season on paper, but the bottom-line numbers might not reflect that in the end. However, this looks like a big overpay for Agholor, particularly when you look at the rest of the New England receiver room. Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd and Gunner Olszewski provide New England with perhaps four different slot receiver options, and while Agholor emerged as more vertical of a threat last season, it is unlikely that Belichick and Josh McDaniels view him as a pure X receiver. In all likelihood, Agholor is going to see snaps at the Z, and he will probably see snaps in the slot.

So this tells us perhaps two things: It could be that the Patriots are going to look to the draft to acquire the X type of player. A wide receiver room with the above players and, say, Dyami Brown or Rashod Bateman could lead to a solid 11 personnel receiver trio. Or, when you look at the Agholor move and combine it with the addition of Jonnu Smith and last year’s pair of rookie tight ends (Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene) perhaps the Patriots are going to move to more of a 12 personnel grouping, where Smith and one of the rising second-year tight ends are on the field along with say Meyers and Agholor.

We’ll learn more about where this offense is heading over the next few weeks. Perhaps the contract is loaded more into the second year, which might see the salary cap rise, but right now, this move does seem like a reach.

Grading G Joe Thuney’s deal with the Kansas City Chiefs: B

The Kansas City Chiefs have reached a deal with Joe Thuney. Is he the right lineman to protect the franchise?

The Kansas City Chiefs are in the process of remaking their offensive line, with players like Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz not returning to the team next season. However, given what the team saw happen in Super Bowl LV, with Patrick Mahomes spending most of the game running for his life, the organization needed to make some moves up front.

They did that on the first day of the legal tampering period, reaching a deal with free agent offensive guard Joe Thuney:

At the outset…yes. That is a lot of money. On paper that would make Thuney the highest-paid interior offensive lineman in the NFL. Of course, the true terms of the deal might bring Thuney in below that $80 million number.

Is he worth it? Well, yes. With Brandon Scherff returning to Washington Thuney became the best player available at his position, and that is going to result in a big payday. Thuney became something of a legend in New England after he helped lock down Aaron Donald in Super Bowl LIII, and since 2018 he has been charged with allowing just three sacks.

The Patriots implement a varied run scheme, with a mix of both zone and gap/power concepts, and Thuney can handle them all. This past season the Patriots rejuvenated their rushing attack with the signing of Cam Newton, and Thuney was a piece of what they did on the ground.

Yet in today’s NFL we all know passing is king, and Thuney is stout in pass protection. He has the awareness and experience to identify twists and stunts up front, and the power, technique and lower-body strength necessary to win many one-on-one matchups. Take this example against the Baltimore Ravens:

When you have invested in a player like Mahomes, you need to be sure that he is going to be protected.  That is something that you can almost struggle to put a price on, although the Chiefs seem to have come up with a number here with the Thuney deal. Plus, depending on how this deal is structured, the Chiefs might have been able to push the bigger money years of the deal down the road a bit, when the salary cap is expected to balloon.

And if the franchise is happy, the fanbase should be as well:

EDITED TO ADD: Okay so the terms of the deal are out and, it changes things a bit.

Instead of back-loading this deal, the Chiefs front-loaded it a bit, so we have to drop the initial grade somewhat. $48 million practically guaranteed, and upfront, is a lot for an interior offensive lineman.

Grading Matt Judon’s deal with the New England Patriots: B

Bill Belichick continues to add players, reaching a deal with defender Matt Judon. Was this a wise investment for New England?

Bill Belichick continues to wave the money around as the NFL’s legal tampering window opens. In addition to adding tight end Jonnu Smith and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, the New England Patriots added some help on the edge, reaching a deal with pass rusher Matt Judon, formerly of the Baltimore Ravens.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter was among the many covering the NFL to report out the terms of the deal, which is expected to be finalized when the league year officially begins on Wednesday:

Some will discount Judon’s impact as a pass-rusher because Baltimore’s blitz rates have been so high over the last two seasons (a league-high 54.9% in 2019, and a league-high 44.1% in 2020), but that’s not entirely fair, nor does it mean that Judon can’t get to the quarterback without a blitz. He’s sneaky-fast around blockers to get pressure in more static fronts, and yes, given his experience with blitz concepts, he can also read gaps and time his rushes from multiple positions.

Judon had six sacks, 16 quarterback hits, 23 quarterback hurries, and 28 stops last season. He’ll have no issue excelling in any scheme as an edge defender who can also line up as an off-ball linebacker and occasionally reinforce coverage. His 46 pressures from a season ago would have ranked him second on the Patriots, behind Chase Winovich.

Belichick values versatility in his defenders, and Judon’s ability to function both with his hand in the dirt off the edge as well as an off-ball linebacker in coverage will be a huge plus for his fit in New England. Remember, this is a defense that will be returning both Patrick Chung and Dont’a Hightower to the lineup, as both players opted-out of last season.

As for the blitz percentage, this could potentially be an indication that the Patriots are going to bring pressure more often. After blitzing at a rate of 37.1% in 2019 — which was sixth-most in the league — the Patriots brought pressure on just 24.4% of their snaps last year, which dropped the team to tenth-fewest in the league. Whether this was a reflection of their players up front, or concerns in the secondary, can be debated.

What cannot be debated is the impact a player like this can make in New England’s defense:

His scheme fit is almost ideal, as he can play on the edge when the Patriots utilize a four-man surface, or upright in some of their sub packages as you see in the above example. The Patriots could perhaps use him in a manner similar to how they relied upon Kyle Van Noy in the past, with the added bonus of Judon’s ability as a pure pass rusher. Consider him perhaps a hybrid of Trey Flowers and Van Noy from season’s past.

Not bad given their needs up front. Not bad at all. Especially when you consider the contract. Judon was playing under the franchise tag last season, carrying a cap number of $16.8 million. Under the terms of this deal, even if Judon hits the full value that comes with a yearly number of $14 million. Solid for a player that can make that kind of impact.

 

 

 

 

Grading DB Jalen Mills’ deal with the Patriots: B

The Patriots are taking a chance on former Eagles defensive back Jalen Mills, but it’s unwise to bet against Bill Belichick’s DB acumen.

Bill Belichick has always appreciated defensive backs who can full multiple roles, and in former Eagles defensive back Jalen Mills, he will now have another one of those players. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Mills will sign a four-year, $24 million deal with $9 million when the new league years begins on Wednesday.

The obvious story in Philly last season was the implosion of Carson Wentz, but another reason the Eagles finished 4-11-1 was that their defense — especially their pass defense — was not exactly a fountain of greatness. The Eagles finished 24th in pass defense DVOA and allowed 27 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, with linebacker Nathan Gerry, and cornerbacks Darius Slay, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Michael Jacquet III, and Avonte Maddox as the primary instigators.

One guy in that secondary who didn’t wind up with as much egg on his face was Jalen Mills, who alternated between strong safety and slot defender and allowed 30 catches on 49 targets for 374 yards, 188 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 90.0. This after two straight seasons in which he was far more exposed in coverage as an outside cornerback. The Eagles made that move because they needed to replace Malcolm Jenkins, and it worked out pretty well for all involved.

“I feel like at my position, my competitiveness and the position that I (know) this Eagles defense is going to be able to put me in to make the plays that I know I can make, that I’m going to have a breakout season,” Mills told 97.5 The Fanatics’ Rob Maaddi, via NJ.com. “I’m ready for it, so as far as when we’re talking about any type of other players and bringing in other guys, especially at the safety position, I definitely feel like I can hold my own.”

Pretty impressive to make such a switch in a season when COVID limited practice time pretty severely, especially in the preseason. Mills could make even more of an impact as both a safety and slot defender with another year of those concepts under his belt. Mills is a decent fit for a team that loves to play man coverage — in Cover-0, Cover-1, and 2-Man coverages as both a slot defender and safety, he allowed 11 catches on 21 targets for 174 yards, and a touchdown. Not overwhelmingly great, but we’ve seen enough DBs go from other teams to the Patriots and improve exponentially to avoid doubting Belichick on this one.