The Houston Texans have a challenging four-game stretch to start the 2020 season. What are their chances for victory in each game?
Every team has a challenge four-game stretch to their season, and the Houston Texans are no different. In fact, their four-game straits are easy to identify as they occur in the first quarter of the 2020 season.
“The Houston Texans’ toughest four-game stretch of the 2020 season comes right out of the gates starting with the season kickoff on Thursday night against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead.
“My model gives Houston a 35.6% chance of winning that game. It does not get any easier for the Texans from there as they return home to host reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the 14-2 Ravens.
“After opening against the last two MVPs, the Texans travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Houston’s toughest stretch is capped off by hosting the Minnesota Vikings. Starting the season with their toughest stretch puts Houston at a disadvantage considering they will be revamping their offense this season after trading DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona. I project the Texans with less than a 40% chance to win any of these games.
“If Houston can get through this incredibly difficult start where they face three playoff teams from a season ago and a future Hall of Fame quarterback in tact, they will have a chance to win the AFC South for the third straight season.”
Frelund gave the Texans a 36.5% chance at the Chiefs, a 37.1% chance in the home opener against Baltimore, a 36.9% chance at the Steelers, and a 37.0% chance against the Vikings at NRG Stadium.
The games that give Houston a chance to win the AFC South are actually the division games, not the intra- and inter-conference games. In the Bill O’Brien era, a 4-2 division record has been good enough to win them the division two out of three times, and a 5-1 division record has secured the AFC South on two occasions. The non-division games help a division winner’s playoff seeding more than anything else.
The Texans started 2018 1-3 and won the AFC South with an 11-5 record. Houston may start out flat in 2020, but how they respond will tell the tale for the rest of the season.
USA TODAY projects the Vikings to have a winning record in 2020, but miss out on the playoffs.
Nate Davis of USA TODAY was optimistic when it came to predicting the Vikings’ record. But even with two extra playoff spots this season, his projection wasn’t good enough for the team to make the playoffs.
Davis had Minnesota going 9-7, and 6-6 against NFC teams. The NFC record is notable, because it eliminated the Vikings from playoff contention. Here’s what Davis said about the team:
“They parted with mainstays Everson Griffen and Stefon Diggs before selecting 15 players, most ever in a seven-round draft. While QB Kirk Cousins and Co. had a playoff breakthrough last season, building on that progress could be a challenge given this schedule takes the Vikes to Indianapolis, Houston, Seattle, Tampa Bay and New Orleans.”
It’s a tough schedule, but Minnesota still has a chance to win a lot of games. However, it’s much better to have a rebuilding year where the team can get a high draft pick, as opposed to the season Davis predicted for the Vikings, where the team has a 9-7 record and still doesn’t make the playoffs.
When the odds come out it will be a shock if Kansas City is favored by anything less than 13.5 points.
The Carolina Panthers are in for a tough road ahead in 2020. In addition to a new coach, a new starting quarterback and a totally remade defense, they’ll face the most difficult schedule in the league according to a projection by Football Outsiders.
The toughest single game of the year? That will come Week 9 when they visit the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, according to Touchdown Wire,
Kansas City has a number of advantages. On top of playing at home, they have the best offensive coach in football, the most-talented quarterback in the NFL and a superb collection of talent at the skill positions. They’ve also added an intriguing new weapon in running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who should thrive in the old Kareem Hunt role.
To stop this juggernaut of an offense the Panthers will rely on an unproven defensive coordinator who’s coaching his first game in the NFL. Phil Snow will lead a unit that was decimated by several free agent losses, one devastating retirement and will probably have at least four rookies starting at key positions.
The Chiefs also got a lot better on defense en route to their first title in 50 years. The additions of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and safety Tyrann Mathieu helped turn around a unit that ranked No. 26 in DVOA in 2018 and improved to No. 14 last season. They should offer a good test for Teddy Bridgewater and a deep, speedy wide receiver corps.
To pull off an upset, the Panthers will have to dominate at the line of scrimmage and get lucky with turnovers. Don’t expect any help from Mahomes in this department, though. Even though he has a reputation as a gunslinger in the same mold as Brett Favre, Mahomes is far less reckless. He only threw a pick on one percent of his passes last season.
When the odds come out it will be a shock if Kansas City is favored by anything less than 13.5 points.
The NFL has placed a bet on a full 2020 season by declining a schedule as it would in any other season.
There is absolutely no way to know whether the 2020 NFL season, released Thursday evening, will come to fruition to any degree. The hope is there, of course, but the complications brought about by the coronavirus pandemic make predicting anything impossible.
But there’s one thing we do know: By starting the 2020 season with divisional games in some instances, and going with a more “normal” schedule in others, the league is betting on certainty to a great degree. As longtime NFL reporter John Clayton said this week, and confirmed to Touchdown Wire on Wednesday, there were league discussions regarding putting all the out-of-conference games in the first month of the season, then the in-conference games, and then the divisional matchups. The reasoning behind this concept was obvious: If the NFL had to truncate its schedule on the front side for any COVID-19-related reason, the out-of-conference games would mean the least from a purely competitive standpoint. This is why the league has scheduled divisional games in the final month of the year in recent times.
But in this case, the league is taking a bold and sure stance by scheduling many of those crucial divisional games right up front. Now, were the season to be shortened, the league could turn around and put those games at the end of the season, and one imagines there are projected schedules that allow for this, but now, the NFL is clearly saying, “Remain calm! All is well!”
Whether the league ends up like Kevin Bacon at the end of Animal House remains to be seen. To be sure, there’s a lot we don’t know.
The Super Bowl champion Chiefs start their march to their title defense against the Texans in the season opener, and then, they travel to Los Angeles to meet the Chargers, their AFC West rival, in Week 2.
The Patriots face the Dolphins in Week 1, so they get the AFC East right up front. But the Seahawks don’t face an NFC West opponent until Week 7, when they welcome the Cardinals to CenturyLink field. And so firth.
Recently, California Governor Gavin Newsom, whose state holds three of the NFL’s 32 teams, said that “it’s difficult to imagine a stadium that filled until we have immunity, a vaccine. It’s difficult for me to imagine what the leagues do when one or two of their key personnel are tested positive. Do they quarantine the rest of the team if an offensive lineman is practicing with a defensive lineman, and they are both tested positive? What happens to the rest of the line, what happens for the game coming up next weekend? It’s inconceivable to me that that’s not a likely scenario, so it’s a very challenging question you’re asking.”
Newsom’s questions take the scenarios beyond the hypothetical idea of the relative safety involved in games played in empty stadiums. Even then, you’re dealing with full rosters, coaching staffs, officiating crews, television and radio crews, catering crews, and everyone else who would make even crowdless games possible.
And for those California teams and their Week 1 games, the 49ers start their season against the Cardinals (divisional), the Rams take on the Cowboys (in-conference), and the Chargers have the Bengals. So, there’s no rhyme or reason to this — no specific up-front plan in case of early cancellations.
This week, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell released a memo outlining protocols for teams opening their facilities to players, and the processes beyond.
“The first phase would involve a limited number of non-player personnel – initially 50 percent of your non-player employees (up to a total of 75) on any single day unless state or local regulations require a lower number,” Goodell’s statement read. “Clubs would decide which employees could return to the facility and when once facilities reopen. No players would be permitted in the facility except to continue a course of therapy and rehabilitation that was underway when facilities were initially closed.”
“While these protocols have been carefully developed and reflect best practices, they can also be adapted and supplemented to ensure compliance with any state and local public health requirements. Clubs should take steps to have these protocols in place by Friday, May 15 in anticipation of being advised when club facilities will formally reopen.
“We are actively working on the next phase of reopening, which will involve both greater numbers of staff and players as well. We are actively working with the NFLPA on the protocols that would apply to player access to facilities and expect to have those protocols developed fairly soon.”
Even then, the NFL will have to deal with the fact that different states are practicing wildly different stay-at-home protocols. It would be far more equitable and easier (not to mention a great deal safer) if the people running Georgia and Florida were as cautious as the people running Washington and California, but that’s not where we are. So, even when team facilities open and teams start to edge back to the concepts of any kinds of pre-season practices, the league will also have to deal with the disparity in caution from state to state. This is when the “National” in “National Football League” presents quite the headache.
So, the NFL has extended itself into the realms of the certain in a time where very little can be categorized as such. We’ll have to see how that plays out.
