The NFC East was a dumpster fire in 2020. The Washington Football Team officially won the division but you could make an argument all the other teams lost. Below, we look at the odds to win the NFC East in 2021, with NFL picks, predictions and best bets.
This is the most winnable division as three NFC East head coaches enter their second season and the Philadelphia Eagles replaced former head coach Doug Pederson with former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni this offseason.
On top of that, no team had a winning record last season and each one comes with a slew of question marks.
Odds to win NFC East
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, Aug. 17.
Dallas Cowboys: +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Washington Football Team: +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
New York Giants: +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
Philadelphia Eagles: +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
NFC East picks and predictions
Before I give you my pick to win the NFC East, let’s first discuss the reasons to fade all the other options.
First, the Cowboys had their 2020 campaign derailed in head coach Mike McCarthy’s first year on the job after QB Dak Prescott was lost for the season in Week 5 following one of the nastiest injuries of the season.
Here’s the thing though, Dallas stunk before Dak went down. The Cowboys were just 1-3 before Prescott suffered the injury in Week 5.
Maybe he returns to his pre-injury form but that doesn’t necessarily equate to wins. With an aging offensive line and a defense ranked 23rd by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Cowboys to win the NFC East is a no-go.
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Next, up we have Washington, who is trying to become the first NFC East team to win back-to-back divisional crowns since the Eagles did so from 2001-04. It seems like most of the NFL media is sold on Washington’s offseason addition of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I am not.
Fitzpatrick is 27 games below .500 for his career and I have a hard time believing he’s going to lead the Football Team to a division title when he’s yet to make the playoffs as a starting quarterback for his eight previous squads.
Also, Washington played the easiest schedule in the NFC last season, according to Football Outsiders, but is playing the second-toughest schedule in the NFC based on projected team win totals, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
One of the biggest regression indicators from year to year is a team going from an easy to difficult strength of schedule. If Washington regresses from a 7-9 season then it isn’t winning the NFC East.
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My thoughts on Philly’s case to win the NFC East are much shorter. Eagles starting QB Jalen Hurts is the worst quarterback in the division and who knows what we’re getting out of the new head coach.
However, Philly does play a cupcake schedule and there’s always a “first to worst” team that wins a division. Despite the easy schedule, the Eagles are favored by the opening lines in just two games this season so I’ll pass on Philly.
The pick: New York Giants (+400)
I’m not going to lie, this is mostly me chasing value in a terrible and winnable NFC East; however, the Giants have the most talent of any team in this division on both sides of the ball.
New York added offensive weapons in hope QB Daniel Jones makes a similar third-year leap as Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen last season.
If the offensive line can hold up and the offense gets some good injury luck, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kenny Golladay and TE Evan Engram can all have Pro Bowl-caliber seasons.
Plus, I’m buying stock in New York’s defense because it has been built to fit this era of football. The Giants have one of the most expensive secondaries in the NFL with a lockdown cornerback, three quality safeties and talent on all levels of the defense.
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