After dominating the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round of the playoffs last Saturday, the San Francisco 49ers (14-3) sit one win away from the Super Bowl. The only team standing in their way? The Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers (14-3).
While both teams finished the regular season 13-3, the 49ers were the far better team. Their point differential of 169 was not only best in the NFC but was 106 points better than that of the Packers. San Francisco finished the regular season with the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 2 defense in yards allowed.
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And when these teams met in the regular season, the 49ers absolutely crushed the Packers, beating them 37-8. Green Bay was held to 198 total yards with Rodgers throwing for only 104 yards with a paltry 3.15 yards per attempt – the lowest of his career in a game he started.
All of this adds up to the 49ers being 7.5-point favorites over the Packers on Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium, with a moneyline of -358. But should you bet on them to win the game?
In short: YES.
Can the good fortune last?
The Packers have overachieved to make it this far and weren’t as good as their record during the regular season. They were 18th in total offense and 18th in total defense in 2019, ranking outside the top 10 in passing and rushing, as well. Their saving grace was turnovers – tying for seventh in the NFL with 25 takeaways and finishing second with 13 giveaways. The plus-12 turnover differential was tied for third in the league.
Green Bay scored fewer than 24 points in nine games this season with eight of their wins coming by only one possession. The 49ers, who were said to have played in a lot of close games, actually won only five games by one possession and scored at least 24 points in all but four games this year – including their 27-10 win over Minnesota last weekend.
Strength vs. strength
This game will come down to two key factors: Can the 49ers get pressure on Rodgers, and can the Packers slow down San Francisco’s rushing attack? The 49ers finished fifth in the NFL with 48 sacks this season – and they were well distributed. Arik Armstead had 10, Nick Bosa had nine, DeForest Buckner posted 7.5 and Dee Ford had 6.5 in only 11 games.
Blocking a defensive line with that sort of production spread across the front is a huge challenge, because it’s not as if the Packers can focus all of their attention on one guy. David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are outstanding tackles, and Elgton Jenkins has been great at guard, but the Packers’ offensive line struggled to protect Rodgers the last time these teams met, allowing five sacks.
As for stopping the 49ers’ ground game, the Packers did a great job of that in Week 12. They held San Francisco to only 112 yards rushing in that one, with no player gaining more than 45 yards by himself. On the flip side, Green Bay still lost 37-8 – and that was with 49ers running back Matt Breida out with injury.
This is a game the 49ers should (and will) win.
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