Tag: NextGen Stats

Jared Goff is the master of throwing the in-breaking route

Goff is the NFL’s best at throwing passes to receivers on routes breaking toward the middle of the field

Lions quarterback Jared Goff had an excellent game against the Denver Broncos. Goff threw for five touchdowns in the game, and there was a common denomination to all five. They all came on in-breaking routes.

That’s where Goff thrives, and his ability to connect with receivers breaking from the outside toward the middle of the field is non-pareil. Being able to attack the defense in different layers over the middle realm is an area where Goff is truly elite.

The outstanding Week 15 game against the Broncos is a great example. The force behind Next Gen Stats spotlights just how great Goff was in that capacity in Ford Field last Saturday night.

From Zebra Technologies and their Week 15 media release,

Jared Goff threw all 5 of his TD passes targeting in-breaking routes, the most in a game by a QB over the last 6 seasons. When targeting in-breaking routes he went 14/17 for 195 yards and 5 TDs (+14.9% CPOE). He now leads the NFL in TDs targeting in-breaking routes this season (15). 

One week earlier, Goff struggled when the Chicago Bears emphasized taking away those routes and throwing lanes. The Broncos offered no such resistance and it led to Goff throwing for five TDs in a blowout win.

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Next Gen Stats data shows how well the Lions CBs covered Bengals WRs

Lions rookie CB Jerry Jacobs allowed Ja’marr Chase over a full yard less of separation than what Kalif Raymond got against his Bengals counterpart

The scoreboard might not reflect it, but the young Detroit Lions cornerbacks played about as well as can be reasonably expected in the team’s Week 6 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Their coverage on the Bengals’ receiving weapons was not the problem.

The data from NFL Next Gen Stats detailing how much separation the receivers got on average from the coverage reflects well upon the Lions CBs, notably rookie Jerry Jacobs.

Jacobs was the primary coverage on dynamic Bengals rookie WR Ja’marr Chase. And while Chase did beat Jacobs (and the late safety help) for a couple of big plays, overall the Lions rookie covered Chase well. Chase managed just 2.59 yard of average separation on routes, almost exactly the league average of 2.55 per route. The Lions, primarily rookie slot CB AJ Parker, also bottled up Tyler Boyd to just 1.6 yards per route.

 

By way of comparison, Detroit’s Kalif Raymond averaged well over a yard more of separation (3.94) against the Bengals coverage than what the Lions ceded to Chase and Tee Higgins (2.71). Lions slot receiver Tom Kennedy also did a fine job of getting open at 3.75 yards, though that came on just five routes (one catch). Cincinnati’s Auden Tate averaged over 4.4 yards of separation on his seven routes, though he saw just one target.

Obviously it didn’t make enough of a difference in a 34-11 loss, but it shows that the young secondary is proving capable of growing into something bigger and better. There is more to successful defense than just tight coverage. Detroit missed some tackles and some help assignments, and the pass rush was not impactful most of the game. Given that context, it’s even more impressive how well Jacobs, Parker and Amani Oruwariye fared in the game.

It also demonstrates that the Lions own receivers are generally getting open more than advertised, something film review continues to show every week.

Browns RBs have been exceptional at exceeding expectations in 2020

3 Browns RBs rank in the top 12 in rushing yards over expectations thru Week 4

The Cleveland Browns offensive line is getting loads of credit for its play through the first four weeks. And deservedly so; OL coach Bill Callahan has quickly molded one of the NFL’s best blocking units.

But the guys doing the running behind them are also thriving in the early season. With Nick Chubb leading the way, the Browns running backs are also playing incredibly well regardless of the great blocking up front.

Per NFL NextGen Stats, three Browns running backs are the in top 12 overall of total rushing yards gained above expectation through Week 4. Kareem Hunt leads the NFL with 111 yards above expectation, which comes from broken tackles, cutbacks, avoided would-be tackles and grinding out yards after contact.

Chubb ranks third with 102. Interestingly D’Ernest Johnson vaulted into 11th place almost exclusively on his work in Week 4 in carving up the Dallas defense.

With Chubb now on I.R. for the next few weeks, Johnson will get more chances to exceed expectations and keep the Browns powerful run game rolling alongside Hunt.

Matthew Stafford was the NFL’s most aggressive QB in 2019

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was the NFL’s most aggressive QB in 2019 per NFL Next Gen Stats

Matthew Stafford was in the midst of one of the most prolific passing seasons in NFL history in 2019 before he suffered his back injury. Though he only played eight games, the Lions QB led all NFL passers in aggressiveness rating.

The NFL’s Next Gen Stats tracked all the throws and the coverage on those pass attempts. The aggressiveness percentage is based on the percentage of total throws with a defender one yard or less away from the target.

Stafford tops that list with 23.4 percent of his pass attempts. He was also the NFL’s leader in average air yards per completion (8.3), which means he was throwing the ball down the field to covered receivers more frequently — and better — than any other quarterback.

The aggressiveness is a function of Stafford having incredible trust in his ability to fit the ball into small windows added to a group of wide receivers who get less separation on average than any other group in the NFL. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are both excellent receivers, but they are not wideouts who consistently get a lot of open space between themselves and the coverage.

Stafford was on pace to pass for 5,000 yards, 38 TDs and 10 INTs before his injury. Doing so with a group of receivers that doesn’t get separation and with a rushing attack ranked in the lower third of the league makes it even more impressive.

Matthew Stafford ranked 5th in completion percentage over expectation

Stafford was having a great season before his back injury

Matthew Stafford was in the midst of a very impressive season before getting injured in 2019. Through the Detroit Lions first eight games, Stafford was lighting up the NFL as one of the top quarterbacks.

One area where Stafford thrived was at completing passes that other quarterbacks could not. His ability to get positive plays on difficult throws was one of the best in the entire league. Only four QBs ranked higher in completion percentage over expected on passes.

What exactly does that mean? The completion percentage over expectation is based on the difference between the actual completion percentage and the expected completion percentage based on the level of difficulty of the throw. That incorporates coverage and pass rush elements into the passing equation.

The Lions were the only team with a QB in the top five to not make the postseason.

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