The New York Yankees (78-63) meet the New York Mets (71-71) in the second of the three-game “Subway Series” at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Mets clobbered the Yankees 10-3 in the series opener Friday highlighted by a 5-run bottom of the 3rd and Mets starting RHP Tylor Megill having 7 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
Season series: Mets lead 3-1.
RHP Corey Kluber is on the rubber for the Yankees. Kluber is 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA (61 IP, 25 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 12 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB and 5 K in the Yankees’ 8-7 home loss against the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.
- Road splits: 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA (32 IP, 16 ER), 1.25 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in six starts.
- vs. Mets on the current roster (48 PA): 3.58 FIP with a .133 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .400 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 31.3 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Taijuan Walker gets the nod for the Mets. Walker is 7-9 with a 4.15 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 25 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in the Mets’ 13-6 win at the Washington Nationals Sunday with 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
- Walker beat the Yankees, 8-3, July 3 with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster (98 PA): 5.52 FIP with a .256 BA, .332 wOBA, .532 xSLG, 18.4 K% and 92.2 mph EV.
Yankees at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Yankees 5, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the YANKEES (-130) – for a half unit only – because there’s a significant “line freeze” in the betting market and the Yankees are an awful 2-8 over their last 10 games.
According to Pregame.com, over 80% of the cash wagered is on the Yankees, but the consensus line hasn’t budged from the opener. It’s kind of a red flag that oddsmakers haven’t moved the number in lieu of the one-sided action.
However, Kluber’s advanced pitching numbers against these Mets batters are much better than Walker’s vs. the Yankees and the bullpen matchup is effectively a wash. Also, the Yankees are 27-23 overall as road favorites and the Mets are 8-9 as home underdogs.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Yankees -1.5 (+130) needs to be north of +150 considering their 21-29 ATS record as road favorites and the Mets’ 12-5 ATS record as home underdogs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-125) for a tiny wager because it’s both a sharp and public play hence the Over being way more expensive and the Over is 5-1-1 in the past seven Yankees-Mets contests.
However, both teams play more to the Under in their location-based O/U trends and each has a strong bullpen so I definitely don’t love this play.
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