New York Yankees at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (78-63) meet the New York Mets (71-71) in the second of the three-game “Subway Series” at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets clobbered the Yankees 10-3 in the series opener Friday highlighted by a 5-run bottom of the 3rd and Mets starting RHP Tylor Megill having 7 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 10 K.

Season series: Mets lead 3-1.

RHP Corey Kluber is on the rubber for the Yankees. Kluber is 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA (61 IP, 25 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 12 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB and 5 K in the Yankees’ 8-7 home loss against the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.
  • Road splits: 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA (32 IP, 16 ER), 1.25 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in six starts.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (48 PA): 3.58 FIP with a .133 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .400 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 31.3 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Taijuan Walker gets the nod for the Mets. Walker is 7-9 with a 4.15 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 25 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in the Mets’ 13-6 win at the Washington Nationals Sunday with 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • Walker beat the Yankees, 8-3, July 3 with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Yankees on the current roster (98 PA): 5.52 FIP with a .256 BA, .332 wOBA, .532 xSLG, 18.4 K% and 92.2 mph EV.

Yankees at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Yankees 5, Mets 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the YANKEES (-130) – for a half unit only – because there’s a significant “line freeze” in the betting market and the Yankees are an awful 2-8 over their last 10 games.

According to Pregame.com, over 80% of the cash wagered is on the Yankees, but the consensus line hasn’t budged from the opener. It’s kind of a red flag that oddsmakers haven’t moved the number in lieu of the one-sided action.

However, Kluber’s advanced pitching numbers against these Mets batters are much better than Walker’s vs. the Yankees and the bullpen matchup is effectively a wash. Also, the Yankees are 27-23 overall as road favorites and the Mets are 8-9 as home underdogs.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Yankees -1.5 (+130) needs to be north of +150 considering their 21-29 ATS record as road favorites and the Mets’ 12-5 ATS record as home underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-125) for a tiny wager because it’s both a sharp and public play hence the Over being way more expensive and the Over is 5-1-1 in the past seven Yankees-Mets contests.

However, both teams play more to the Under in their location-based O/U trends and each has a strong bullpen so I definitely don’t love this play.

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