The 5-seed Atlanta Hawks (2-1) host the 4-seed New York Knicks (1-2) Sunday for Game 5 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup at State Farm Arena. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Knicks-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Atlanta beat the brakes off of New York 105-94 as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 3 and PG Trae Young was an offensive maestro for his third consecutive game.
Young scored 21 points with 14 assists and just two turnovers in the win. For the series, he is averaging 27.7 points per game on 59.7% true shooting (.484/.438/.934) with 10.3 assists per game.
The story of the series for New York continues to be the struggles of the Most Improved Player of the Year, PF Julius Randle, who’s averaging just 14.7 points per game on 36.6% true shooting (.241/.300/.857) with a team-high 14.3% turnover rate.
Knicks at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:08 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Knicks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Hawks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Knicks +5 (-110) | Hawks -5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Knicks at Hawks: Key injuries
Knicks
- C Mitchell Robinson (foot) out
Knicks
- SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out
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Knicks at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Knicks 112, Hawks 107
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the KNICKS (+165) for a quarter unit because I “like” New York plus the points and think there’s a little bit of value in the dog’s money line since this feels like a seven-game series.
Game 3 was more of a seesaw affair than the double-digit final margin would indicate and the Knicks actually outscored the Hawks in two of the four quarters, but the lopsided second quarter (29-13) was too much for New York to overcome.
New York is leading this series in three of the “four factors” (offensive, turnover and FTA/FG rates) and if Randle’s shooting can improve from abysmal to just below-average, the Knicks will be in good shape.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the KNICKS +5 (-110) for 1 unit because I think some of PG Derrick Rose‘s teammates will step up in Game 4 after getting adjusted to the playoff atmosphere in Atlanta in Game 3.
After clamoring from the Knicks’ faithful for months, head coach Tom Thibodeau finally started D-Rose in Game 3 and he carried New York offensively with 30 points on 13-for-21 shooting and 5 assists.
Rose is the major reason New York’s bench is outscoring Atlanta’s 49.0-28.0 in points per game this series, but the Knicks’ role players have played better and both Randle and SG R.J. Barrett are due for bounce-back games
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight lean to the Over even though the “sharp” money is on the Under because New York’s 3-point shooting can almost only go in one direction given how terrible it has been this series and Young keeps getting quality looks for his teammates.
However, New York’s ideal game is probably a “rock fight” with a slow pace. There’s a good chance the Knicks can dictate the tempo since they are owning the glass and are tied with the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the postseason.
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