The New Orleans Pelicans (16-26) stop by Barclays Center Saturday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Brooklyn Nets (26-15). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
NOLA has won three of its last four games (4-0 ATS) including two straight at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-125 Tuesday and the Los Angeles Clippers 113-89 Thursday.
The Pelicans are 3-4 straight-up (SU), 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 17th-ranked adjusted net rating at a minus-2.1 and the 11th-best ATS margin at plus-1.9 over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Brooklyn has seesawed between winning and losing over the last seven games (3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS), losing at home to the Oklahoma City Thunder 130-109 in its latest outing.
The Nets have the 18th-ranked adjusted net rating at a minus-2.6 and the second-worst ATS margin at minus-9.9 over the last 14 days.
The Nets beat the Pelicans 120-112 in New Orleans but failed to cover as 9-point road favorites. The Pelicans were missing leading scorer SF Brandon Ingram, who averages 22.9 points per game, in the first meeting.
Pelicans at Nets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pelicans +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Nets -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pelicans +6.5 (-115) | Nets -6.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 230.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Pelicans at Nets key injuries
Pelicans
- None.
Nets
- SG Kyrie Irving (ineligible to play) out
- C LaMarcus Aldridge (foot) out
- C Nic Claxton (hamstring) questionable
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Pelicans at Nets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nets 113, Pelicans 109
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Pelicans (+205) because I’m taking NOLA plus the points and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.
However, F Kevin Durant is going to be out there Saturday and that’s reason enough to stay away from the Pelicans here. The Nets are just 11-11 at home this season, but the Pelicans are just 4-13 as a road underdog.
Against the spread
BET the PELICANS +6.5 (-115) because I think the Nets aren’t profitable at home, the Pelicans have already been bet by sharp money and NOLA has a strength-on-weakness edge on the glass.
Brooklyn is just 4-17-1 ATS at home with a minus-7.8 ATS margin, 2-6 ATS versus teams with a losing record and 2-6 ATS when laying 5-7 points.
This makes sense because what do the Nets have to prove in the regular season? Also, Kyrie’s part-time, road-game-only schedule lowers Brooklyn’s basketball ceiling and the Nets have a weak home crowd.
The Pelicans are fourth in offensive rebounding rate and fifth in second-chance points per game (PPG). Whereas the Nets are 22nd in defensive rebounding rate and 20th in second-chance PPG allowed.
Lastly, New Orleans was a 7.5-point underdog on the world opener before being steamed down to the current price. However, I still think there’s value in the PELICANS +6.5 (-115).
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 230.5 (-112) because this number is way too high. The Pelicans are 5-12 O/U as road underdogs, the Nets are 8-13 O/U as home favorites and both teams score fewer PPG in their respective location splits.
Brooklyn’s defense has also been more reliable than its offense this season and NOLA ranks 20th in pace. Both KD and G James Harden love to play half-court basketball so they’ll be okay with a slower-paced game.
There are a ton of Over-friendly trends in this matchup and the total has already been steamed up from the 228.5-point opener. But, I disagreed with the opening Pelicans-Nets total and this is a good spot to fade the trends.
The UNDER 230.5 (-112) for 1 unit is my favorite wager in this game.
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