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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway Sunday for the 2024 USA Today 301. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET (USA Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 USA Today 301 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2024 USA Today 301: What you need to know
- Qualifying on Saturday was washed out for Sunday’s race on the 1.058-mile oval. While Goodyear brought wet-weather tires for the weekend, NASCAR competition officials deemed the track too wet for time trials
- The starting grid is set by NASCAR’s rule book, meaning series point leader Chase Elliott is on the pole with Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney on the outside of Row 1
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career Cup wins at NHMS, and he has a 9.4 Average-Finish Position (AFP) which also tops the charts in 30 Cup runs at the track
- RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski has a 9.8 AFP in 23 Cup starts, 2nd only to Hamlin. He has picked up 2 wins, 10 top-5 finishes and 598 laps led, mostly during his time with Team Penske
- JGR’s Martin Truex Jr., who announced last week that he is retiring after the 2024 season, is the defending champ at NHMS. His average speed of 101.572 mph last season was the best at Loudon since Kevin Harvick’s 104.062 mph average on July 21, 2019
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson has not won in New Hampshire in 13 Cup tries, but he does have a runner-up finish, while posting 5 top-5 finishes and 7 runs inside the top 10
- Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell has 21 Cup starts under his belt in Loudon, but he has never finished higher than 13th, posting an abysmal 31.5 AFP
- Hendrick’s Alex Bowman has struggled over the years at New Hampshire, posting just a single top-10 finish in 12 Cup starts with a dismal 23.4 AFP
- Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch is tied with Hamlin for the most wins among active drivers at NHMS (3). He has also led 1,134 laps at the flat track, behind only Truex (1,170) among active drivers
- The winner has started 14th or higher in 7 of the past 8 Cup races since July 2017, and 13 times in the past 16 runs since Sept. 2012
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2024 USA Today 301 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:59 a.m. ET.
DENNY HAMLIN (+600) has had his way with the field when it comes to New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Now that Kevin Harvick is retired, the driver of the No. 11 machine is the new King of New Hampshire.
Not only does he have the 3 checkered flag in 30 career Cup starts, but he leads all drivers with a 9.4 AFP, while finishing inside the top 10 on 19 different occasions. He has never had a DNF, while leading all active participants with a 103.6 driver rating, too.
2024 USA Today 301 – Contender
BRAD KESELOWSKI (+1000) has fared well at this track across the years, although most of that solid work was done behind the wheel of a Team Penske car.
Still, Keselowski is slowly starting to resemble the driver we saw during those days. He produced a top-10 run at the inaugural Iowa Corn 350 last weekend. He was 3rd at the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway. He was 2nd at the Coca-Cola 600, and he punched his ticket to the playoffs with a win at Darlington in mid-May. Since the Kansas race May 5, Kes has an AFP of 6.7 in 6 starts.
If you’re not comfortable taking him straight up, a KESELOWSKI TOP-10 FINISH (-160) is not priced out of line.
Check out Motorsports Wire: For the auto racing fan, USA TODAY Sports Media Group’s website covers NASCAR, F1, IndyCar and more.
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