The Brooklyn Nets (16-16) tangle with the Dallas Mavericks (21-12) at American Airlines Center Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Nets-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Nets at Mavericks: Key injuries
Nets
- SG Garrett Temple (knee) questionable
- SG Caris LeVert (thumb) out
- PG Kyrie Irving (shoulder) out
- SF Kevin Durant (Achilles) out
Mavericks
- SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (hamstring) out
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) out
- SF Luka Doncic (thigh) probable
Nets at Mavericks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mavericks 118, Nets 105
Moneyline (ML)
This matchup lines up nicely for the Mavericks (-333); they defend the three well—ranked sixth in the NBA in opponents’ 3-point percentage (33.6), while the Nets shoot poorly from distance—ranked 28th in 3-point percentage (33.3). Both teams are good rebounding squads—the Nets are ranked second in rebounds per game and the Mavericks are third—but the Nets are 26th in opponents’ rebounds per game so the Mavericks should be able to control the glass.
The Mavericks’ win probability is 78% in their game versus the Nets, but the Mavericks -333 is terrible value. Betting $358 to win $100 is no bueno if you’re trying to win money in the long run. PASS.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
We are on MAVERICKS (-8.5, +105) to win by at least 9 points. PG Spencer Dinwiddie is key to the Nets success with Irving and LeVert sidelined—when Dinwiddie scores 20-plus points in games he starts, the Nets are 11-7 straight up. The problem in this matchup is the Mavericks allow the second-fewest fantasy points for point guards in the NBA. Furthermore, the Nets underperform expectations on the road (7-10 ATS). They are 0-5 straight up on the road against teams above .500.
While there are reasons to fall for the Nets defense—ranked 12th in defensive rating (107.2) and third in opponents’ field-goal percentage (43.1)—I’ll take those metrics with a grain of salt because they’ve played the easiest strength of schedule in the NBA.
Over/Under (O/U)
I am leaning to the OVER 220.5 (-129) for a few reasons. The -129 price is BetMGM trying price us out on an Over bet, the combined Over/Under record of the Nets and Mavericks is 34-30-1 and the Over is 4-1 in the last five Nets-Mavericks games. This is only a lean and not a like for me because of the Mavericks’ early season success defending guards and if they jump out to a big lead on the Nets, then the scoring could die in the fourth quarter.
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