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ACC Tournament: NC State vs. North Carolina odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s NC State vs. North Carolina odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The NC State Wolfpack (21-14) square off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (27-6) in the ACC Tournament Championship Game from Capital One Arena Saturday. Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the NC State vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

NC State took Virginia to overtime Friday night and blew the doors off the arena, outscoring it 15-7 in the extra frame to capture a 73-65 win. F DJ Burns Jr. led the way with 19, and C Mohamed Diarra had 9 points and 12 boards. The Wolfpack upset Duke, 74-69, Thursday as 11-point underdogs and stand in the spotlight against their in-state rivals. They lost to the Tar Heels by 9 and 13 in their meetings this season.

UNC, No. 4 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, was given a scare by the Pitt Panthers Friday night as they got down by 9 early on. UNC trimmed the lead to 2 and took control in the 2nd half to win 72-65. F Armando Bacot had 19 points and 11 boards. They walked all over Florida State in a 92-67 laugher Thursday.

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NC State vs. North Carolina odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): NC State +440 (bet $100 to win $440) | North Carolina -610 (bet $610 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): NC State +10.5 (-120) | North Carolina -10.5 (-102)
Over/Under (O/U): 144.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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NC State vs. North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 69, NC State 66

Moneyline

There is 1 way that NC State wins this game and punches its ticket to the Big Dance. It’ll have to slow this game down and use its size in the paint. Burns and Diarra have the advantage underneath. If it goes to them early and gets Bacot into foul trouble, that’s its only recipe for success. NC State was just 3-for-17 from distance in the semis against UVA and tied for 152 at 34.5% on the season. Tar Heels G RJ Davis had 25 against Pitt, and he’s the best player on the floor. However, if NC State gets to Bacot, it’ll expose them.

Can NC State pull off the massive upset in order to get the tournament? Perhaps. I’m just not willing to do anything more than toss a free bet on it because UNC is too talented.

Instead, take DJ BURNS JR. OVER 10.5 POINTS (-120). He has 11+ in 3 of 4 games, and he’s massive in the paint at 6-foot-9, 275 pounds.

Against the spread

I’m all over NC State catching 10.5 points here because I think it could upset the complacent Tar Heels. I didn’t like the energy UNC came out with against Pitt, and if it does that against the Wolfpack, it’ll be too late to awaken from the catnap.

Take NC STATE +10.5 (-120).

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Over/Under

As I mentioned, the only chance NC State has is to slow this down and work it inside. Whether or not they’re successful doesn’t matter, but the effort in itself will peg this one toward the Under. The Under has cashed in 4 straight matchups between the schools, but this one is significantly lower. It sounds like the books agree with my assessment on the pace of play.

LEAN UNDER 144.5 (-110).

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NC State at North Carolina odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s NC State at North Carolina odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (22-6, 14-3 ACC) welcome the NC State Wolfpack (17-11, 9-8) to the Dean E. Smith Center Saturday. Tip is set for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the NC State vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

North Carolina is No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. UNC beat the Miami Hurricanes 75-71 Monday, failing to cover as a 15-point home favorite. The Tar Heels have won 3 straight games and are 4-2 straight up over their last 6. They are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) over the 6 games but 15-12-1 ATS on the season. North Carolina is led by G RJ Davis, who is averaging 21.7 points per game.

NC State lost on the road to the Florida State Seminoles 90-83 Tuesday, failing to cover as a 3-point underdog. The Wolfpack have lost 4 of their last 6 and are 3-3 ATS in that span. NC State is 12-15-1 ATS on the season and is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 on the road. The Pack are led by G DJ Horne, who is averaging 17.5 points per game.

UNC won 67-54 as a 2.5-point road underdog in the 1st meeting with NC State this season (Jan. 10) with the Under (154) cashing.

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NC State at North Carolina odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): NC State +430 (bet $100 to win $430) | North Carolina -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
Against the spread: NC State +10.5 (-110) | North Carolina -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 154.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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NC State at North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 84, NC State 73

Moneyline

PASS.

The Tar Heels (-600) have been too consistently good this season to bet against them at home, where they are 12-1. However, they are also far too expensive to take outright. AVOID a moneyline play.

Against the spread

BET NORTH CAROLINA -10.5 (-110).

The Tar Heels are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games as double-digit favorites. They’re also 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games. UNC is 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games, including 1-1 as a double-digit favorite.

As mentioned, NC State is 12-15-1 ATS on the season, but it is just 3-5 ATS in its last 7 contests. The Wolfpack don’t have the consistency to hang with a team like the rival Heels. They have 4 players averaging more than 5.6 points per game — all 4 average more than 11.6 PPG or more — and 2 of them shoot under 42% from the field.

UNC has more depth in scoring and is more well-rounded side. TAKE NORTH CAROLINA -10.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 154.5 (-115).

North Carolina plays at an ultra-fast pace and has both efficiency scoring and ample size to crash the offensive glass. The Tar Heels have gone Over in 4 of their last 8 games and have scored at least 75 in 6 of their last 7. They have allowed at least 80 in 2 of their last 4.

NC State has gone Over in 5 straight games, scoring at least 80 in 3 straight and allowing at least 83 in 3 of its last 5. That said, expect a high-pace game and TAKE OVER 154.5 (-115).

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