The Celtics’ cakewalk to a championship might signal its time to change the NBA’s playoff format

This isn’t taking away anything from the Celtics! It’s just making a more entertaining product

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a fantastic week and have an even better weekend ahead of you.

Celtics fans, I don’t want you to be mad at me today. Your team will probably win the NBA championship tonight — it feels like a sweep is coming. If it doesn’t happen tonight, then it’ll probably happen the very next game.

READ MORE: The Mavericks and Oilers have given us two incredibly awful Finals

Congratulations! The Celtics deserve it! Boston has been the best team in the NBA all season long. This team deserves to win the NBA Finals for plenty of reasons. The Celtics have earned their place among the greatest teams in NBA history.

That said, I think it’s fair to mention Boston’s relatively easy path to this point. The Celtics had a cakewalk through the Eastern Conference. Boston didn’t have to play a 50-win team until the Mavericks in the Finals.

As we discussed, injuries decimated every team the Celtics saw in these playoffs. That’s not uncommon — you need a bit of injury luck to make deep playoff runs and the Celtics have had plenty of it outside of Kristaps Porzingis. But, in the East, their competition wasn’t up to snuff.

Meanwhile, in the West, the Mavericks had to claw their way through the Clippers (51 wins), the Thunder (57 wins) and the Timberwolves (56 wins). The West has generally been a tougher conference than the East over the last 30 years, but this season shows us exactly how stark that difference is. The best teams in the West totally beat each other down while the Celtics just cruised to the Finals.

To be fair to Boston, that’s not the Celtics’ problem. The team played who it had to play and dominated the competition. This team had three 50+ point wins in a season — we can’t (and shouldn’t!) try to take anything away from that. There are no asterisks here.

I just think that if there was ever a time to consider switching the NBA’s playoff format from a two-conference situation to a 1-16 seeding format, then this is that time.

The league has discussed it before—it was even reportedly close to happening at one point when the NBA was restarting during the pandemic. With how dominant the West has traditionally been, it makes sense to consider it.

Obviously, logistical issues would need to be resolved. Boston traveling to, say, Sacramento for a 1-seed vs. 16-seed matchup would be an issue. But I think there are creative ways to get around that, whether finding neutral sites to host playoff games or even shortening early rounds so that the travel is less hectic.

But I think this format would solve a core problem the NBA has had over the decades: Teams in the West are presented with tougher matchups early on in the postseason than their counterparts in the East. This year’s Nuggets and Timberwolves series felt like the NBA Finals. I’m not sure the Celtics have played a series that’s felt like the Finals yet.

Part of that is just how good that team is. Another part, though, is that they just haven’t gotten any real competition. And maybe there isn’t any. Maybe they’re just that good.

But, man, I would’ve loved to see it.


It’s not Luka’s time

(Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)

I really, really hate the word “exposed” when it comes to discourse about the NBA today.

Folks always use the term in a way that feels so absolutist. If a player’s flaws are “exposed” then the book is written on them. Everyone has to be this weird image of perfection, but no one ever is. So it doesn’t matter.

That said, I do feel like “exposed” is the right word to characterize what the Celtics have done to Luka Doncic in these Finals. He’s not a great defender. I wouldn’t even call him a good one — especially at his size. And the Celtics have driven right at him over and over and over again in these Finals to kickstart their offense. It’s been a huge problem.

Down 3-0 in the Finals, Doncic is acknowledging his defensive shortcomings, our Robert Zeglinski writes. And he’s ready to learn from it.

“It’s not unprecedented for stars of Doncic’s mold to experience a little heartbreak before they finally break through. Losing and learning where you have to improve to succeed has been a rite of passage for every major star in NBA history. Everyone from Michael Jordan and LeBron James to Nikola Jokic went through this kind of challenging trial in some capacity.

Doncic knows what next steps he has to take to lift the Mavericks over the top. That’s half the battle. And no matter what happens during the rest of these Finals, he still has plenty of time to grow.”

The path is there for Doncic. You don’t lead a team to the NBA Finals by osmosis – you’ve got to be good enough to do this. He is.

Let’s see if he’s ready to do what it takes to get better.

Shootaround

— Pat McAfee is stoking the flames of the Woj vs. Shams beef. Here’s Zeglinski with more

— Dan Hurley denies that he used the Lakers as a leverage play. We all know what it is, though. Bryan Kalbrosky has more.

— Speaking of Bryan, our latest NBA Mock Draft is out. Take a peek and see who your favorite team is picking.

— Brian Windhorst had a brutally honest take about Luka that should stick with him for a long time. Charles Curtis has more.

That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for reading Layup Lines today. We’ll be back at it again next week. Until then! Peace.

-Sykes ✌️

NBA Finals Game 3: Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks meet Wednesday for Game 3 of their best-of-7 NBA Finals series, which the Celtics lead 2-0. Tip-off from American Airlines Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics picked up a 107-89 win in Game 1 as 6.5-point favorites as the Under (216) cashed, and Boston exorcised its Game 2 demons with a 105-98 win while pushing as a 7-point favorite at most shops. The Under (214) once again connected.

G Jrue Holiday posted a team-high 26 points on an efficient 11-of-14 shooting in Game 2 while hitting a pair of 3-pointers to go along with 11 rebounds, 3 assists, a blocked shot and a steal in 41 minutes. F Jayson Tatum also had a double-double, finishing with 18 points, 12 assists and 9 rebounds.

The Mavericks have lost 3 of the past 4 playoff games while going 1-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The Under is 3-1 in the 4-game span, too. Dallas is averaging just 93.5 points per game (PPG) in the NBA Finals, its worst offensive production in a 2-game span since the final 2 games of the regular season.

Celtics at Mavericks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Celtics +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mavericks -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Celtics +2.5 (-110) | Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Celtics at Mavericks key injuries

Celtics

  • F Kristaps Porzingis (leg) questionable

Mavericks

  • G Luka Doncic (thoracic) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Celtics at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 105, Mavericks 101

Moneyline

The CELTICS (+120) are a solid play in Game 3, as the series shifts to the Metroplex for the next 2 games.

Dallas is just 5-3 straight up on its home court during the postseason, while Boston is a perfect 6-0 away from home in the playoffs. The Celtics are averaging 106.0 PPG in the 2 games in these Finals, while the Mavs have managed just 93.5 PPG.

Look for Boston to continue its solid work on the road, pushing Dallas to the brink of elimination in the process.

Against the spread

Back BOSTON +2.5 (-110) on the road if you would like a little extra insurance and wiggle room. It’s entirely possible Dallas -2.5 (-110) could show some heart, pulling off a win in a close game.

But again, if you like the Celtics, just play them straight up rather than taking the little bit of points.

Over/Under

UNDER 213.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board in Game 3.

The series shifts to the Metroplex, so perhaps the Dallas offense gets a bump feeding off the energy of its supportive home crowd. But the Mavs have had a devil of a time trying to solve the Celtics defense, and a shift to Texas isn’t likely to change the course of this series. We’ll still get plenty of defense.

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The NBA offseason will be here before you know it, but before your attention turns to the Summer League and next season, sign up at these online sportsbooks to secure the best welcome offers for NBA Finals betting and more.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Dereck Lively II throws down massive dunk in Game 2 of the NBA Finals

Dallas didn’t get the road win on Saturday night, but rookie Dereck Lively II left Boston with a great addition to the highlight reel.

The Dallas Mavericks dropped their second straight game to start the NBA Finals on Saturday night, but rookie 7-footer [autotag]Dereck Lively II[/autotag] still made an impression.

The former Duke Blue Devil threw down a vicious two-handed dunk during the third quarter off a simple pick-and-roll with star Luka Doncic. Lively set a screen for the star, but with both Celtics defenders preoccupied with the Mavericks’ star guard, the center easily slipped into the paint undetected.

Doncic fed Lively from there, and the breakout rookie didn’t even bother to dribble. Boston’s Derrick White tried to meet him at the rim, but at just 6-foot-4, he stood no chance. Lively threw down with both hands over his head mercilessly.

The basket served as Lively’s only points of the night after he played just 19 minutes. So far in his first NBA Finals experience, the Duke product is averaging 2.0 points and 6.0 rebounds through two games.

Game 3, in front of Lively’s home crowd in Dallas, tips off on Wednesday night.

This Jayson Tatum playoff stat has him alongside LeBron James and Larry Bird

Through Boston’s 14 playoff games, former Duke basketball star Jayson Tatum accomplished something only four other NBA players ever have.

[autotag]Jayson Tatum[/autotag] and the Boston Celtics still need to beat the Dallas Mavericks four times to win the NBA title, but through 14 playoff games, the former Duke basketball star is keeping some crazy company.

Tatum, through the first three rounds of the playoff, finished with 26.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. As ESPN’s Get Up pointed out on Tuesday morning, only four other players in NBA history reached the NBA Finals while averaging 25.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, and they’re all surefire Hall of Famers.

The list includes Larry Bird and LeBron James, who both did so twice. Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo did so in 2021, and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic did so last season.

This stat line isn’t even particularly abnormal for Tatum. The 26-year-old averaged at least 25.0 points per game in each of the last five postseasons, he’s averaged at least 10.0 rebounds in three of the last five, and he’s averaged at least 5.0 assists in four of the last five.

It’s worth pointing out that in the six seasons listed for the above examples, the player listed won the Finals four teams. Bird and James both won one of their two trips, and Antetokounmpo and Jokic won their respective championships.

Jayson Tatum’s NBA career through the years

Take a look back at some of the best photos of former Duke basketball star Jayson Tatum’s first seven years in the NBA.

It’s hard to imagine [autotag]Jayson Tatum[/autotag]’s first seven years in the NBA going much better.

The former Duke basketball star went third overall to the Boston Celtics in the 2017 NBA draft, and all he’s done since is become the first Blue Devil to make multiple All-NBA First Teams, reach five Eastern Conference finals, and make the NBA Finals twice.

With the 2024 Finals set to start on Thursday, the 26-year-old is the betting favorite to win Finals MVP with his Celtics, fresh off a 64-win season and a 12-2 run through the conference bracket, heavy favorites to win the title. He seems like a sure bet to usurp Grant Hill as the best Duke alum in league history by the time he’s done, and he’s arguably the best former Blue Devil in NBA history already.

Here’s a look back at Tatum from 2017 until now with his best photos since draft night.

What are the odds that a former Duke basketball star gets named the NBA Finals MVP?

The Celtics and Mavericks begin their best-of-seven series on Thursday. What are the odds one of the three Duke Blue Devils wins MVP honors?

If an NBA fan wants to bet on who will win Finals MVP, Fanduel Sportsbook thinks smart money is on former Duke basketball star [autotag]Jayson Tatum[/autotag].

With the first game of the NBA Finals set to start later this week, the popular sportsbook has Tatum listed as the odds-on favorite for the prestigious award.

The odds favor Boston in the series to explain Tatum’s low odds. In fact, FanDuel favors the Celtics by a considerable margin. The sportsbook lists Boston as -220 favorites for the series, meaning the team has roughly a 69% chance to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

However, the Dallas Mavericks have two former Blue Devils who want a ring, too. Kyrie Irving already won a title alongside LeBron James in Cleveland back in 2016, and Dereck Lively II’s rookie postseason won the hearts of fans across the country. They might not have the same odds as Tatum, especially on a team with All-NBA First Team star Luka Doncic, but they’re both on FanDuel’s board.

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Here are the odds for any of the three former Blue Devils to walk away with Finals MVP honors as of Monday afternoon.

Player Odds
Jayson Tatum -120
Kyrie Irving +2000
Dereck Lively II +50000

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Get more betting analysis and predictions at Sportsbook Wire

Former Duke basketball star Dereck Lively II sets an NBA playoff record

Dereck Lively II, the rookie 7-footer made a piece of NBA history during the Dallas Mavericks’ Western Conference finals victory.

Former Duke basketball star [autotag]Dereck Lively[/autotag] didn’t just help the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference in his first career postseason. He also made his stamp on NBA postseason history in the process as a rookie.

Lively made all 16 of his attempts from the floor in the five-game series, the most attempts without a miss in any NBA postseason series ever.

The rookie 7-footer missed Game 4 with a neck injury, but he went 4/4 in the opening game of the series before making all six of his efforts in the second game. He went 3/3 in both of the last two games of the series, averaging 9.5 points across his four appearances once his six free throws were factored in.

Through the postseason thus far, Lively averaged 8.6 points and 7.2 rebounds with two double-doubles in 16 games. He also averaged 1.2 blocks per game through the Western bracket, and he put together all of this production without a single start. He averaged 21.8 minutes per contest.

Lively and the Mavericks play the Boston Celtics, led by former Duke star Jayson Tatum, in the best-of-seven NBA Finals series beginning on June 6.

Dereck Lively II shares another message to late mother after reaching NBA Finals

After the Dallas Mavericks clinched the Western Conference on Thursday night, Dereck Lively shared an Instagram story in honor of his late mother.

After the Dallas Mavericks clinched the Western Conference with a 124-103 victory over Minnesota on Thursday night, former Duke star Dereck Lively II took to social media to honor his late mother once again.

The rookie 7-footer lost his mother to cancer in early April, sharing a heartfelt tribute on Instagram and calling her his superhero. He earned national love in the second round of the playoffs when he helped the Mavericks beat the No. 1 seed, Oklahoma City, with back-to-back double-doubles. He shared a short message for his mother after defeating the Thunder, saying that he loved and missed her.

In the Western Conference finals, Lively and the Mavericks needed just five games to dispatch the Timberwolves. Lively sat out Game 4 with a neck injury, but he averaged 9.5 points and 7.8 rebounds.

After the clinching win in Game 5, which featured a nine-point, eight-rebound Lively performance, the rookie center shared another quick Instagram story in her honor from the celebratory locker room.

“Just keep watching from above,” Lively wrote.

Lively and the Mavericks take on fellow Blue Devil Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals beginning on June 6.

Duke basketball alums Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II advance to NBA Finals

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Timberwolves for the fourth time on Thursday, advancing Dereck Lively II and Kyrie Irving to the NBA Finals.

Two more former Duke basketball players booked their tickets to the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

The Dallas Mavericks, the team of Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II, defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves for the fourth time, a 124-103 victory that clinched the Western Conference finals.

Irving scored 36 points and finished with four rebounds and five assists for the game, and the veteran guard averaged 27.0 points for the five-game series. He scored at least 30 points in six of his 17 playoff games this postseason.

Lively, who earned national adoration for his second-round performance just weeks after his mother passed away, did not play in Game 4 due to a neck injury after a knee to the head. However, he added nine points and eight rebounds in the clinching win. In the rookie’s last six playoff appearances, he’s finished with three double-doubles and averaged 10.2 points and 9.3 rebounds without playing more than 30 minutes in any game.

Both players were first-round draft picks after a single season with the Blue Devils. The Cleveland Cavaliers took Irving with the first pick in the 2011 NBA draft, and Lively ended up on the Mavericks after he went with the 12th pick in 2023.

This will obviously be Lively’s first Finals appearance as a rookie, but Irving already made three Finals alongside LeBron James in Cleveland. The duo defeated Golden State after trailing 3-1 in 2016 for Irving’s first NBA title, and the former Blue Devil averaged 30.0 points per game over the three-game comeback.

At least one Duke basketball player will win the NBA Finals

The Celtics and Mavericks will meet in the NBA Finals, meaning either Jayson Tatum or Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively will end up with a ring.

The NBA Finals matchup is set, and at least one former Duke basketball star will win his first ring this season.

The Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks will battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy in a best-of-seven series.

Celtics star Jayson Tatum, the third overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, made his third consecutive All-NBA First Team this season. He’s averaged at least 25 points in each of the last five postseasons, and he finished the Eastern Conference run with 26.0 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

Tatum and the Celtics reached the Finals in 2022 but lost to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.

On the other side, the Dallas Mavericks will follow Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively into battle. Irving, the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NBA draft, already won a title with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the rookie Lively would join an elite list of NBA champions from Duke.

Lively, who is playing less than two months after his mother passed away, earned national praise for his breakout performance this postseason.

The first game of the NBA Finals starts on June 6.