NBA Best Bet of the Day: Thunder covers Game 7 versus Rockets

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Houston Rockets.

The series a majority of the NBA community figured would be the most competitive in the first round, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets, has lived up to the hype. Game 7 of the Thunder-Rockets tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET and is the best bet of the day.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Thunder +5.5 (-110) against the Rockets

The best argument for the Rockets -5.5 (-110) is if you handicapped a victory and aren’t sweating the spread because Houston’s three previous wins this series came by an average margin of 20.6 points. Makes sense.

Positive game script for the Rockets is a high-octane shootout where the Thunder mistakenly tries to keep up with Houston’s 3-point barrage. But for Oklahoma City, they are going to want to slow the pace down (ranked 22nd in the NBA) and get to the foul line (3rd-highest free throw rate in the NBA).


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This is a legacy game for both sides and I like Chris Paul to maestro his team past Houston. He took over in the fourth quarter of Game 6 — scoring 15 points, grabbing 3 boards and getting 2 steals — which is a situation he’s thrived in all season.

The Thunder had the most clutch wins in the NBA during the regular season (30-15). Clutch is when the margin is five or less in the last five minutes of the game. The Thunder’s success in clutch situations is based on having CP3 run the show.

OKC has the 2nd-highest cover % in the NBA (47-31 ATS), including the postseason, and Houston is ranked 22nd (36-42 ATS). The Thunder were 3-0 ATS in the regular season against the Rockets and won outright in both games Russell Westbrook was active in.

The pressure is mounting for Westbrook and James Harden, who both have similar playoff woes as Paul. Westbrook and Harden failed to take advantage of a reeling OKC and faltered down the stretch of Game 6.

If this Game 7 is officiated like the Jazz-Nuggets was Tuesday, we could see the refs swallow their whistles, allowing both teams to pick up their defensive intensity. A game that goes Under the total favors OKC.

I “like” OKC to advance and “LOVE” THUNDER +5.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Thunder +5.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if OKC wins or loses by five or fewer points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Defenses show up in Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Boston Celtics vs. the Toronto Raptors.

We’re going to hear the two most exciting words in sports Tuesday:  Game 7. The slate features a losers-leave-the-bubble matchup with Utah Jazz playing the Denver Nuggets and Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Celtics-Raptors Under 218.5 (-110) 

Boston pounced on Toronto early in Game 1 — outscoring them 39-23 in the 1st quarter — thanks to 6-8 3-point shooting and getting to the foul line 11 times.

But that’s a rare occurrence from the Celtics as they were 21st in the NBA in first-quarter scoring. Also, Toronto holds opponents to the 5th-lowest first-quarter scoring output in the NBA. 

Expect to see a stronger defensive performance from the Raptors in Game 2 in all because the situation calls for it. Nick Nurse was recently named Coach of the Year and that’s in part due to his reputation as a defensive strategist. The Raptors hold their opponents to the lowest 3-point % in the NBA and are the second-most defensively efficient team.


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They would be best served to lean on their defense tenacity since they want to get in a shootout against Jayson Tatum and the rest of the Celtics. Marcus Smart and Brad Wanamaker combined to go 7-13 from 3-point land and we should expect that to regress a little in Game 2.

Don’t sleep on the Celtics defense either. Boston has the 4th-most efficient defense, their opponents shoot the 2nd-lowest % of 3’s and 4th-lowest effective field goal %.

Also, we have a couple of trends backing our Under play:

  • The Under has cashed in three straight Celtics-Raptors games.
  • Boston has a 1-6 Over/Under record in their last seven overall games.
  • Boston has a 7-15 O/U record when they are the underdog.

If the Raptors are going to get back into this series, it’ll most likely be because of its defense. TAKE UNDER 218.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 on Under 218.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if Toronto and Boston score a combined 218 or fewer points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Denver Nuggets keep it close versus Utah Jazz

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Denver Nuggets vs. the Utah Jazz.

The Los Angeles Clippers are hoping to send the Dallas Mavericks home in Game 6 of their first-round series and the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors play Game 1 of the first second-round series to tip-off in the NBA playoffs on Sunday.

But we turn our attention to the Utah Jazz trying to eliminate the Denver Nuggets in Game 6.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Nuggets +3 (-110) vs. Jazz 

Utah is ahead in the series, 3-2, but Denver is 3-2 ATS in this series. Albeit Game 4, the Nuggets covered thanks to a meaningless 3-pointer by Jamal Murray as time expired, but that’s how it goes betting on sports.

Denver’s defense showed signs of life for the first time this series last game, holding Utah to a series-low 107 points. Also, they are a little healthier heading into this meeting.

Gary Harris Jr. has been activated ahead of Game 6 and, while he’s no stupendous defender, he does give the Nuggets an extra body to throw at the red-hot Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson.

Utah has three players that are shooting 50-plus % from deep (minimum of 15 3-point attempts) and the return of Harris will help Denver’s perimeter defense cool off the Jazz. When Harris has been on the court this season, Denver’s opponents have a worse offensive rating by 5 points and lower effective field goal % (.522 eFG% compared to .543 eFG%).


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It’s obviously a win or go home game for Denver; expect them to lock in on defense again, but anticipate great games again from Nikola Jokic and Murray. Jokic is averaging 26.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5 assists, and Murray is putting up 30.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists in this series.

Let’s say Denver’s All-Stars stay hot and BET NUGGETS +3 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Nuggets +3 (-110) will pay a $100 profit if Denver wins or loses by two or fewer points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Russell Westbrook will slow down Thunder, Rockets scoring

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Houston Rockets.

Both 8-seeds are on the brink of elimination in Saturday’s Game 5 triple-header. The Orlando Magic hope to stay alive against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Portland Trail Blazers try to extend its series with the Los Angeles Lakers without superstar, Damian Lillard, in its rear-view.

Today we are going to focus on the tied Oklahoma City Thunder-Houston Rockets series.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Thunder-Rockets Under 227.5 points (-110)

The major factor of this wager might throw some off originally. Russell Westbrook has been activated ahead of Game 5 in Thunder-Rockets and I think that actually hurts Houston’s offense.

Westbrook will go down as a Hall of Famer so you don’t naturally equate worse offense with his presence. However, Houston’s offensive efficiency drops 2.4 points with Westbrook on the court.

Since Westbrook is a bonafide superstar, wouldn’t it be expected Houston might force him into a gameplan or call specific plays for him? I think it does. But more Westbrook means fewer role players.

The role players are connecting on 3’s in this series and are a big reason why the Rockets are tied 2-2. Here is the order of the top 3-point shooters for Houston thus far in this series: 1-Jeff Green (.481%), 2-P.J. Tucker (.440%), 3-Ben McLemore (.412%), 4-Robert Covington (.400%), 5-Danuel House (.393%) and 6-James Harden (.327%).


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The Under cashed in two of three regular-season meetings between the Thunder and the Rockets (Westbook played in all three). The two games that went Under, Westbrook had 32 and 34 points. Furthermore, Houston’s defensive efficiency improves by two points with Westbrook on the court.

Westbrook likes to use his explosiveness early in possessions to create fastbreak chances, but the Thunder rank first in opponent’s fastbreak points per game. If OKC can force Houston to play more half-court offense, there will be fewer possessions in the game, hence less scoring. That fits what the Thunder like to do anyways since they are ranked 22nd in pace.

Also, OKC defends what Houston does well: Getting to the foul line and 3-point shooting. The Thunder rank third in opponent’s free throw rate and second in opponent’s 3-point %.

TAKE UNDER 227.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 wager on Under 227.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if the total of Thunder-Rockets falls short of 227 combined points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets defenses show up

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Houston Rockets.

Each conference’s 1-seeds try to eliminate its first-round foes as part of a Game 5 NBA triple-feature Wednesday. The Milwaukee Bucks look to close out the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers are hoping to put a Damian Lillard-less Portland Trail Blazers in its rear-view.

But we’re going to hone in on the tied Oklahoma City Thunder-Houston Rockets series.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Thunder-Rockets Under 225.5 points (-110)

The major factor of this wager might throw some off originally. Russell Westbrook has been upgraded to “questionable” ahead of Game 5 in Thunder-Rockets and I think that actually hurts Houston’s offense.

Westbrook is a two-time scoring champion, former MVP and future Hall of Famer, so you don’t naturally equate worse offense with his presence. However, Houston’s offensive efficiency drops 2.4 points with Westbrook on the court.

Since Westbrook is a bonafide superstar, wouldn’t it be expected Houston might force him into a gameplan or call specific plays for him? I think it does. But more Westbrook means less role players.

The role players are connecting on 3’s in this series and are a big reason why the Rockets are tied 2-2. Here is the order of the top 3-point shooters for Houston thus far in this series: 1-Jeff Green (.481%), 2-P.J. Tucker (.440%), 3-Ben McLemore (.412%), 4-Robert Covington (.400%), 5-Danuel House (.393%) and 6-James Harden (.327%).


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The Under cashed in two of three regular-season meetings between the Thunder and the Rockets (Westbook played in all three). The two games that went Under, Westbrook had 32 and 34 points. Furthermore, Houston’s defensive efficiency improves by two points with Westbrook on the court.

Westbrook likes to use his explosiveness early in possessions to create fastbreak chances, but the Thunder rank first in opponent’s fastbreak points per game. If OKC can force Houston to play more half-court offense, there will be fewer possessions in the game, hence less scoring. That fits what the Thunder like to do anyways since they are ranked 22nd in pace.

Also, OKC defends what Houston does well: Getting to the foul line and 3-point shooting. The Thunder rank third in opponent’s free throw rate and second in opponent’s 3-point %.

TAKE UNDER 225.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 wager on Under 225.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if the total of Thunder-Rockets falls short of 225 combined points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: All-in on LA Clippers, Utah Jazz parlay

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Denver Nuggets vs. the Utah Jazz and the Los Angeles Clippers vs. the Dallas Mavericks.

Aside from the play-in game for the West’s 8-seed, Tuesday is the first day in the NBA restart to have less than four games on its card. Can Luka Doncic continue his dominance in Game 5 of the LA ClippersDallas Mavericks series? Will the Denver Nuggets stave off elimination by the Utah Jazz in Game 5?

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Utah Jazz and LA Clippers both win (+130)

The Nuggets entered this series as BetMGM’s favorite because of the seeding, Utah’s performance in the bubble prior to the playoffs, and the injury to the Jazz’s second-leading scorer, SF Bojan Bogdanović.

But what bookmakers failed to account for in their pricing was Utah’s edge over Denver in the two things that matter most in the NBA currently: 3-point shooting and getting to the foul line. The Jazz were the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA during the regular season and are tied with the Toronto Raptors for the best 3-point % in the playoffs (.433%).

Utah the 10th-highest free throw rate in the NBA during the regular season and Denver was ranked 26th. In this series, the Jazz have attempted 102 free throws and the Nuggets have just 65 free-throw attempts.

And, yes the loss of Bogdanović hurts the Jazz, the Nuggets’ injuries are what’s doing them in this series. Donovan Mitchell is wreaking absolute havoc on Denver’s backcourt that is without SG Will Barton and SG Gary Harris.


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It’s a little surprising Luka is so effective in his first career postseason, but not shocking because the dude has “superstar” written all over him. The Clippers are without defensive menace — PG Pat Beverley — and it’s hurting their defensive scheme.

Los Angeles fully healthy is usually content switching on screens for ballhandlers, but we see what happens when PG Reggie Jackson gets switched onto Luka. Gametime. Dallas is a legitimate threat to Los Angeles and Game 5 is the time when the Clippers leader — Kawhi Leonard — puts the team on his back.

Paul George has basketball’s version of the yips: George is averaging just 15.3 points per game on .290% field goal and .222 3-point shooting. Leonard and the Clippers can boohoo later about George’s ineffectiveness but on Tuesday they’ll take back control of the series.

TAKE CLIPPERS & JAZZ IN A MONEYLINE PARLAY (+130). New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Clippers and Jazz moneyline parlay (+130) pays a $130 profit if both Los Angeles and Utah win its Game 5s. 

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers soar Over in first half

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Miami Heat vs. the Indiana Pacers.

Monday’s wall-to-wall NBA schedule is day two of Game 4s in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder look to even the series, 2-2, with the Houston Rockets while the Miami Heat is going for a sweep of the Indiana Pacers.

Let’s stay with Game 4 of the Heat-Pacers for today’s best bet.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Heat-Pacers Over 107.5 first-half points (-115)

Indiana is in a win-or-go-home scenario, so they should play with a little desperation. They are a defensive team without its defensive anchor in PF Domantas Sabonis.

The Pacers have had trouble finding their offense in the first two games of the series, scoring 101 in Game 1 and 100 in Game 2, respectively, but picked it up offensively in their 124-115 Game 3 loss.

Since their backs are to the wall, expect Indiana to shoot more 3’s and be more aggressive at getting to the foul line. This would be a dramatic pivot from what they did in the regular season — the Pacers were last in the NBA in 3’s attempted and free throw attempts per game — but with nothing to lose you’d think Indiana would try some different.


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Miami doesn’t have the offensive stagnancy of the Pacers. The Heat has the best free throw rate, second-best 3-point percentage and seven-most efficient offense in the NBA.

They have elite sharpshooters featuring Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder and Kelly Olynyk. If the Pacers pick up the tempo in an effort to shake things loose with their offense, the Heat will happily engage them in a shootout.

Also, it’s natural for teams to take their foot off the gas when up 3-1 in a series. Miami may come into Game 4 not as buttoned-up and come halftime head coach Erik Spoelstra will get into the team’s ear about stepping up the defensive intensity.

The OVER 107.5 (-115) in the first half is the right play instead of the full game because if Miami takes control of this game in the second half we could really see the scoring die. Indiana will come out motivated to prevent a sweep and we’ll see a higher tempo Pacers team than usual. 

New to sports betting? A $115 bet on Heat-Pacers Over 107.5 first-half points (-115) pays a $100 profit if they combine for 108 or more points in the first two quarters.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers light up the Portland Trail Blazers

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Los Angeles Lakers vs. the Portland Trail Blazers.

Two teams try to get back into their series after falling down 2-0 when the Indiana Pacers meet the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder play the Houston Rockets Saturday.

The other two games in the Game 3 quadruple-header features split series between each conference’s 1- and 8-seeds. Let’s head out West for our best bet and focus on the Los Angeles Lakers versus the Portland Trail Blazers.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Lakers will go Over 116.5 (-110) points 

Damian Lillard dislocating his finger in the second-half of Portland’s 111-88 loss to the Lakers is a concern, to say the least. He’s tough enough to play, but how effective will Lillard be? If he’s even slightly less effective, it’s going to be tough for him to help draw defenders and find open men.

Portland was on fire in the bubble averaging 126 points per game and .414% 3-point shooting before the playoffs. They’ve scored only 188 points in the first two games of the series and, with Lillard banged up, I am less confident in the Trail Blazers’ offense; that’s why I’d avoid the combined total. 

However, like in the “regular” regular season, Portland’s defense has been unreliable in the Orlando bubble. They ranked 28th in defensive efficiency in the regular season, giving up 116.1 points per game but allowed 123 points per game in those final 9 bubble games.


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Game 3 should be a “get right” game for the Lakers offense. Their offense in the bubble has been heavily criticized and LeBron James has scored 30-plus points in just one game since the restart. 

Los Angeles’s role players got it going a little in Game 2:  Lakers went 14-38 on 3-pointers compared to 5-32 from deep in Game 1. But LeBron only pitched in 10 points on 11 field-goal attempts and made zero. 

Anthony Davis can be expected to fill it up against the Trail Blazers (he averages 32 PPG in three meetings with the Blazers this season) and “King James” will awaken from his playoff coma to get his against Portland’s weak defense.

BET THE LAKERS TO SCORE MORE THAN 116.5 POINTS (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 wager on the Lakers to go Over 116.5 (-110) points will earn a $100 profit if Los Angeles scores 117 or more points versus Portland.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Kawhi Leonard gets buckets on Luka Doncic

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Los Angeles Clippers vs. the Dallas Mavericks.

What should be the first home games for the lower seeds is instead a continuation of the seven-game series, with four Game 3s, tipping off in the Orlando bubble Friday.

The quadruple-header features Joel Embiid trying to get his Philadelphia 76ers back into their series against the Boston Celtics and Luka Doncic versus Kawhi Leonard continues with the Dallas Mavericks meeting the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers-Mavericks is the game we’ll focus on today.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Kawhi to score more points than Luka (+115) 

This is a specialty prop, aka “Odds Boost”, offered by only BetMGM Sportsbook.

Los Angeles owned Dallas in the regular season, going 3-0, but the Mavericks are tied 1-1 in their first-round series. You could even make the argument that the Mavericks would be up 2-0 if Kristaps Porzingis weren’t thrown out of Game 1 because of the technicality of two technical fouls. 

A big reason why Dallas has looked so good is because of their MVP-contending superstar, Luka (first name basis), balling out of control in the first two games. He’s been a complete maestro out there, orchestrating the Mavericks offense to the tune of 127 points scored in their Game 2 victory.

Luka’s brilliance is made even more possible because of the injury to Clippers’ defensive force PG Pat Beverley, but that’s part of my handicap and why I actually like Kawhi to outscore him in Game 3.


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Kawhi versus Luka is the most entertaining matchup and Leonard will need to take more responsibility in guarding Luka if Los Angeles wants to get past Dallas in the first round. “The Claw,” as Kawhi is otherwise known, is no stranger to suffocating defense and if head coach Doc Rivers demands it, Leonard could oblige. 

These two have played head-to-head five times this season, including the playoffs, and they’ve scored as many points in two games, Kawhi has scored more in two games and Luka has the scoring edge in the other.

Another factor in me taking Kawhi to score more points than Luka is my “fade the market” angle. BetMGM opened the line at Kawhi favored (-118), but bettors have steamed the line to Luka favored (-115).

GRAB KAWHI (+118) since it’s going against the market. The House is usually the better side to be on. New to sports betting A $100 bet on Kawhi to score more points than Luka (+118) pays a $118 profit.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Milwaukee Bucks shutdown Nikola Vučević

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on Milwaukee Bucks vs. the Orlando Magic.

The second day of a Game 2 quadruple-header for the first round of the NBA playoffs is slated for Thursday. Each conference’s 1-seeds try to bounce back from stunning Game 1 losses when the Milwaukee Bucks meet the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers play the Portland Trail Blazers.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all bubble games so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Under Nikola Vučević 22.5 points (-129)

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that something is a little off with the Milwaukee Bucks. They got routed in Game 1 by the 8-seed Magic, 122-110. A big reason why Orlando pulled off the upset is because of the work their big man Nikola Vučević put in.

He scored 35 points (a personal-high against Milwaukee) on 15-24 shooting and 5 of 8 from behind the arc. Essentially the Bucks dared Vučević to shoot and he made them pay. 

Vučević having his best scoring performance of 2019-20 led to an overreaction from BetMGM. We are getting close to three points of cushion compared to his season average of 19.6 PPG.

Also, we should expect regression from the five threes Vučević sank in Game 1, because he averaged 1.7 threes per game in the regular season and the Bucks’ bigs should close out on him more in Game 2.


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Even though the Bucks averaged the most points per game in the regular season, their defense is what will carry them to a title. Milwaukee is ranked first in defensive efficiency this season.

The Bucks allow opponents to shoot the most threes per game in the NBA but that’s by design because opponents score the least amount of points in the paint per game. Vučević averaged the ninth-most paint touches and 11th-most field goal attempts in the paint in the NBA. 

In 24 career starts against the Bucks, Vučević has eclipsed 22.5 points in just three games and he’s averaging 16.7 points per game against Milwaukee. Expect a motivated Bucks team, and both Lopez brothers, to focus on shutting down Vučević. 

New to sports betting? A $129 bet on Under Nikola Vučević 22.5 points (-129) pays out a $100 profit if the Bucks hold him to 22 or fewer points. 

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]