Tag: NBA betting odds lines against the spread over-under picks

Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and bets.

The Toronto Raptors play Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series against the Brooklyn Nets Sunday at the HP Field House. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Raptors-Nets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Raptors vs. Nets: Key injuries

Raptors:

  • SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (knee) questionable

Nets:

  • SF Joe Harris (personal) out
  • SG Jamal Crawford (hamstring) out

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Raptors vs. Nets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Raptors 120, Nets 105

Moneyline (ML)

The Raptors (-1250) are monster moneyline favorites over the Nets in Game 4 of this Eastern Conference matchup. Toronto has won the first three games of this series with relative ease and they will look to finish off Brooklyn on Sunday afternoon. While it feels likely that the Raptors will be able to complete the sweep, the moneyline odds just aren’t good enough to consider backing Toronto. PASS on this moneyline in favor of the point spread.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The RAPTORS -13.5 (-110) are huge double-digit favorites over the Nets on Sunday afternoon. While that number may seem large, it’s worth noting that Toronto has won the first three games of this series by a combined 54 points. It’s also worth noting that Toronto has been excellent against the spread as of late, covering in nine of their last 12 games, including the postseason.

With the Raptor’s top-notch defense and ability to score well into the 110s, it’s just a bad matchup for this beat-up Nets’ squad. Expect the Raptors to play with a sense of urgency as they look to close out the Nets in the first round. Take Toronto -13.5 (-110) to cover this huge spread on Sunday.

New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Raptors -13.5 returns a $100 profit if Toronto beats Brooklyn by 14 or more points.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total for this Game 4 matchup between the Raptors and the Nets is set at 217.5 points, which feels just about right considering how much Brooklyn has struggled on the offensive end in this series. The Nets have averaged only 100.3 points per game in the previous three contests as the Raptors’ No. 1 ranked defense in points per game allowed has shown why they were the best unit in the NBA.

However, with that line being as low as it is, expect Toronto to approach 120 points, which should allow the OVER 217.5 (-110) to hit in Game 4.

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks battle in their Western Conference Quarterfinals series Sunday with Game 4 at AdventHealth Arena outside of Orlando, Fla., with a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Clippers-Mavericks NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Clippers vs. Mavericks: Key injuries

Clippers

  • PG Patrick Beverley (calf) doubtful

Mavericks

  • PG Trey Burke (ankle) probable
  • SF Luca Doncic (ankle) questionable
  • SG Courtney Lee (calf) out
  • PF Kristaps Porzingis (heel) probable
  • PF Dwight Powell (Achilles) out

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Clippers vs. Mavericks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Sunday at 5:20 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Clippers 124, Mavericks 111

Moneyline (ML)

The Clippers (-385) look for a commanding 3-1 series lead, and they could be aided by the fact the Mavericks (+290) could be short their biggest star. Luca Doncic rolled his ankle in Game 3, and while an MRI didn’t reveal any serious damage — and it isn’t the ankle he has had a multitude of problems in the past — he is still reportedly in pain and a game-time decision.

If Doncic can’t play because of that rolled ankle, the Clips are going to roll the Mavs. Still, L.A. is much too risky to bet at nearly four times your potential return. PASS.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Clippers returns a profit of just $2.60 if they win. A $10 bet on the Mavericks returns a profit of $29 with a win.

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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The CLIPPERS -8 (-110) looked championship-caliber in Game 2, winning 130-122 to cover for the second time in this series. It doesn’t help that the Mavericks +8 (-110) haven’t seen their two big guns Doncic and Porzingis finish any of the three games together, either due to injuries or ejection. Even if Doncic is healthy enough to play, it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100 percent. Bang the Clips against the number.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 231.5 (-110) is a rather high number with one of the big guns for Dallas a huge question mark. However, Game 2 and Game 3 both cashed over, and that’s the lean here.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics Game 4 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers play Game 4 of their Eastern Conference best-of-seven series Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET in the bubble at Lake Buena Vista, Fla. We analyze the Celtics-76ers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Celtics vs. 76ers: Key injuries

Celtics

  • SG Javonte Green (knee) out
  • SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) out

76ers

  • SG Ryan Broekhoff (personal) out
  • SF Glenn Robinson III (oblique) out
  • SG Ben Simmons (knee) out
  • SG Zhaire Smith (knee) out

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Celtics vs. 76ers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Sunday at 4:55 a.m. ET.

Prediction

76ers 105, Celtics 102

Moneyline (ML)

The 76ERS (+280) are worth a roll of the dice here, as Joel Embiid sounded adamant after Game 3 that he would do everything in his power to not get swept. Words are words, I get that, but the Sixers haven’t played that badly in this series against the Celtics (-358) outside of Game 2. They were in Game 1 down to the wire, eventually falling by eight, and they were in it in Game 3 before losing by eight. They just haven’t played a full 48 minutes, which might be one of the reasons head coach Brett Brown is on the hot seat, win or lose.

New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the 76ers would return a profit of $28, while a $10 winner on the Celtics would fetch a profit of just $2.80.

Also see:

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The 76ERS (+7.5, -110) have yet to cover in three games so far in this series, but I am not only expecting a cover, but an outright win, with the Celtics (-7.5, -110) winning the series in five. Philly has that much pride, at least.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 213.5 (-110) has hit in two of the first three in this series, the two games in which Philly has been competitive. When they were waxed in Game 2, the Over easily connected. Look for Philly to get it done in a lower-scoring, defensive battle.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 3 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

Game 3 of the Western Conference first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder tips off Saturday at 6 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. We analyze the Thunder-Rockets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Series: Houston leads 2-0.

Rockets vs. Thunder: Key injuries

Rockets

  • PG Russell Westbrook (quadriceps) out

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Rockets vs. Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Thunder 110, Rockets 102

Moneyline (ML)

Series odds:

  • Houston (-1112)
  • Oklahoma City (+700)

Two things have stood out in Houston’s wins in Game 1 and 2: Defense and bench performance. The Rockets (-139) defense stifled the THUNDER (+115) in their 111-98 Game 2 win, holding OKC to just 11 made 3’s in 32 attempts — compared to Houston’s 19 made 3’s in 56 attempts. The Rockets’ bench has outscored the Thunder’s 74-47 and made seven more 3’s through two games.

But Oklahoma City is going to be desperate for a win to get back into this series and that should mean less Thunder bench. Plus, PG Chris Paul and SF Luguentz Dort will anchor a strong defensive performance.

Dort held Rockets SG James Harden to just 21 points on 2 of 11 3-point shooting. If Dort can make Harden work a little harder Saturday, the role players should be able to close out on shooters and we’ll see some Rockets regression in 3’s.

TAKE THUNDER (+115) to put forth the defensive effort needed and to get back into the series.

New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Thunder (+115) earns a $57.50 profit if OKC upsets Houston. 

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

This is a bit of a sweet spot line for OKC, which has a 17-7 ATS record when getting 1-2.5 points. The Thunder +2 (-106) can’t go down 3-0, making this a “must-win,” but you could also make the argument that Rockets -2 (-115) want to step on OKC’s throat in Game 3.

We “like” OKC on the moneyline so let’s buy a half-point and GRAB THUNDER +2.5 (-115) in case Rockets win by a single possession or buzzer-beater. It’s always better to be safe than sorry.

A $115 wager on Thunder here earns a $100 profit if OKC wins outright or loses by two or fewer points.

 Also see:

Over/Under (O/U)

If the Rockets get hot from deep, the Thunder won’t be able to keep up the scoring. It would be better for OKC — which needs to make it difficult for Houston and play at its pace — if this game goes UNDER 222.5 (-110).

I’d only wager a small amount though because I won’t bet an Over/Under unless I “love” a total.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and bets.

The Portland Trail Blazers play Game 3 of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series against the Los Angeles Lakers Saturday at AdventHealth Arena in Reunion, Fla. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Trail Blazers-Lakers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: Key injuries

Trail Blazers

  • PF Zach Collins (ankle) out
  • SF Nassir Little (illness) out
  • PG Damian Lillard (finger) probable

Lakers

  • PG Rajon Rondo (thumb) questionable

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Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Trail Blazers 117, Lakers 112

Moneyline (ML)

After an impressive win in Game 2, the Lakers (-358) open Game 3 as huge favorites over the TRAIL BLAZERS (+275). Portland’s defense struggled some to contain the Lakers in Game 2, but it was their offense that was their biggest problem.

Portland shot just 27.6 percent from the three-point line on 29 attempts and had 17 turnovers on offense. That lack of production likely won’t happen again as PG Damian Lillard and SG C.J. McCollum went a combined 12-30 from the field. Look for Portland’s offense to get back on track in this contest and steal Game 3.

 Also see:

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The TRAIL BLAZERS +8 (-110) open this contest as monster underdogs in Game 3 against the Lakers. While the Lakers were able to cover on Thursday night, it was the first time they have done so in their last seven games. Portland will be looking to bounce back after a rough Game 2 and expect a much more competitive game than what we saw two days ago.

If the moneyline is too risky of a bet for you, consider taking Portland to keep this game within eight points. Their excellent three-point and free-throw shooting allow them to stay close in games and that should help them here. Look for the Trail Blazers to cover this spread with ease on Saturday night.

New to sports betting? A $110 wager on the Trail Blazers +8 will fetch a $100 profit if Portland beats Los Angeles or loses by eight or fewer points.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total for this Western Conference playoff game is set at 224.5 points, which feels high considering how the first two games have gone. Neither of the first two contests reached the 200-point mark, which is rare considering how explosive each offense has been this season. With both teams having their own shooting woes, expect some fireworks in Game 3 from each side, allowing the OVER to hit for the first time.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and bets.

The Indiana Pacers will play Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series against the Miami Heat  Saturday at AdventHealth Arena for a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Pacers-Heat NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Miami leads the series 2-0.

Pacers vs. Heat: Key injuries

Pacers

  • SG Jeremy Lamb (knee) out
  • PF Domantas Sabonis (foot) out

Heat

  • SF Jae Crowder (knee) questionable
  • SF Derrick Jones Jr. (ankle) questionable

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Pacers vs. Heat Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Heat 112, Pacers 105

Moneyline (ML)

The HEAT (-223) are big moneyline favorites over the Pacers in Game 3 after taking a 2-0 lead in the series. Indiana just doesn’t match up well against Miami, as they have lost five of their previous six meetings. Miami has out-scored the Pacers by 21 points in the first two meetings and it doesn’t appear anything will change here in Game 3. Given the odds, don’t be afraid of taking Miami and the moneyline once again on Saturday.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The HEAT -5 (-110) open this contest as two-basket favorites over the Pacers on Saturday afternoon. Not only has Miami won the last two games over Indiana, but they’ve also covered the spread in each contest, as well. Indiana just can’t keep up with Miami as they have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five meetings. And with this line being relatively low, expect the Heat to cover this spread for the third-straight game. Take Miami to cover the 5-point spread on Saturday.

New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Heat -5 (-110) will pay a $100 profit if the Miami beats Indiana by six or more points.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total for this Eastern Conference playoff matchup is set at 213.5 points, which feels about right considering how the first two games have gone. In Game 1, only 214 points were scored and in Game 2, that number dropped to 209. While it’s fair to expect Indiana’s offense to bounce back some after two poor outings, Miami’s defense can be stifling at times. Still, 213.5 points is a fairly low number and both sides should have no problem scoring near 110 points in this contest. Take the OVER 213.5 (-110) for this Game 3 matchup between the Pacers and the Heat.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz Game 3 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

Game 3 of the Western Conference first-round series between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz tips off Friday, at 4 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. Utah tied the series with Wednesday’s 124-105 victory in Game 2. We analyze the Nuggets-Jazz NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Nuggets vs. Jazz: Key injuries

Nuggets

  • SG Will Barton (knee) out
  • SF Vlatko Cancar (foot) out
  • SG Gary Harris (hip) out

Jazz

  • SF Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) out 
  • PG Mike Conley (birth of a child) probable
  • C Ed Davis (knee) out

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Nuggets vs. Jazz: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Nuggets 110, Jazz 107

Moneyline (ML)

Series odds:

  • Nuggets (-176)
  • Jazz (+145)

While the return of Conley is ultimately a good thing for the Jazz (-106), I think it hurts them in Game 2 against the Nuggets (-115). G Joe Ingles, G Donovan Mitchell and C Rudy Gobert are killing Denver in the pick-and-roll. Utah is averaging the most points per possession.

By returning to the lineup, Conley will take the ball out of their hands and impede the recent flow of the Jazz’s offense. In this series, Ingles is at 18.2 usage %, but in the regular season—when Conley played in two of three meetings (both losses)—Ingles was only getting 10.9 usage %.

Mitchell is getting whatever he wants against the Nuggets. He’s averaging 43.5 points, 5 rebounds and 7.5 assists through two games of the series on .617% field-goal shooting and .545% 3-point shooting. Also, Utah’s second-leading scorer this series is SG Jordan Clarkson, and he needs looks to get in a rhythm. Conley being back takes the ball out of these guys’ hands.

The Nuggets were a favorite at (-189) in Game 2 and Conley is NOT worth 74 cents on the dollar. Bet NUGGETS (-115).

New to sports betting? A $115 bet on the Nuggets will pay a $100 profit if Denver beats Utah.

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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

PASS. The line is Denver -1 (-110). There’s no point in laying a point either way. Just bet who you like in this game.

Over/Under (O/U)

My projection says the UNDER 217.5 (-110) will win by a half-point so I am only a “LEAN” here. The Over has cashed in three straight Nuggets-Jazz games, but the Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall. The Jazz’s defense is more stout and pace a little slower with Conley returning to the lineup.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks continue their Western Conference Quarterfinals series Friday with Game 3 at AdventHealth Arena outside of Orlando, Fla., with a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Clippers-Mavericks NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Clippers vs. Mavericks: Key injuries

Clippers

  • PG Patrick Beverley (calf) doubtful

Mavericks

  • PG Trey Burke (ankle) probable
  • SG Courtney Lee (calf) out
  • PF Kristaps Porzingis (heel) probable
  • PF Dwight Powell (Achilles) out

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Clippers vs. Mavericks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Clippers 123, Mavericks 114

Moneyline (ML)

The Clippers (-250) got a wake-up call in Game 2 when the Mavericks (+180) rose up and bit them, squaring this series 1-1. The 127-114 score was especially surprising considering the Mavs dropped all four meetings during the regular season. The Mavericks have gotten 70 points from G Luka Doncic, the second-most points in NBA history in a player’s first two playoffs games. Only George Mikan had more, notching 75 points in two games in 1949.

Anyway, you can’t risk twice as much as your potential return, even if it is a good bet the Clips bounce back in Game 3.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Clippers returns a profit of just $4 if they win. A $10 bet on the Mavericks returns a profit of $18 with a win.

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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The CLIPPERS -5.5 (-110) have covered the spread in five of their past six games against the Mavericks (+5.5, -110), obviously not covering in Game 2. Head coach Doc Rivers will light a fire under his guys, and you can expect LA to fire out of the chute and roll to a wire-to-wire win similar to the one Dallas had last time out.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 231.5 (-110) is worth a small-unit play, as it should connect in the final moments. The Over is 6-2 in the past eight for the Clippers, while hitting in five of their past seven as a favorite.

The Mavs have also been lighting it up, hitting the Over in nine of their past 11 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, for which the Clippers certainly qualify. Dallas has also hit the Over in six of the past eight as a dog.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers continue their Eastern Conference best-of-seven series for Game 3 Friday at 6:30 p.m. ET in the bubble at Lake Buena Vista, Fla. We analyze the Celtics-76ers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

76ers vs. Celtics: Key injuries

76ers

  • SG Ryan Broekhoff (personal) out
  • SF Glenn Robinson III (oblique) out
  • SG Ben Simmons (knee) out
  • SG Zhaire Smith (knee) out

Celtics

  • SG Javonte Green (knee) questionable
  • SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) out

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Celtics vs. 76ers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Celtics 109, 76ers 100

Moneyline (ML)

The Celtics (-239) look to fire out to a commanding 3-0 series lead against the disappointing 76ers (+190). Unfortunately, as dominant as the C’s have been in the first two games, you still cannot risk more than two times your potential return.

New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Celtics would return a profit of just $4.18, while a $10 winner on the 76ers would fetch a profit of $19.

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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The CELTICS (-5.5, -110) have covered each of the first two games in this series, including a 128-101 coasting in Game 2, easily covering a 4 1/2-point number. The Celtics are 14-5 ATS in their previous 19 meetings with the 76ers, and they’re an even more impressive 14-2-1 ATS in the past 17 Conference Quarterfinals playoff games. On the flip side, the 76ers (+5.5, -110) have covered the number in just three of the past 10.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 216.5 (-110) is the way to go in this one. While the over hit in Game 2, it’s mainly because it was a blowout. The Sixers have scored exactly 101 in each of the first two in this series, and the under is 11-5 in their past 16 quarterfinals appearances and 4-1 in the past five meetings with the C’s.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Thursday’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets Game 2 betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and bets.

Game 2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets Western Conference Quarterfinals tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET Thursday in the Orlando bubble. Houston holds a 1-0 series lead. We analyze the Thunder-Rockets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Thunder vs. Rockets: Key injuries

Thunder

  • SF Luguentz Dort (knee) questionable

Rockets

  • PG Russell Westbrook (quadriceps) out
  • PF Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) out

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Thunder vs. Rockets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Thunder 121, Rockets 114

Moneyline (ML)

Series prices: 

  • Houston (-358)
  • Oklahoma City (+275)

Game 1 went about as bad as it could have for the THUNDER (+110). It was a lot of one on ones and standing around the arc waiting for someone to create something on offense.

The Rockets (-139) hit 20 of 52 3-pointers and G James Harden had his way with OKC. Harden scored a seemingly easy 37 points on 12-22 shooting (6-13 from deep) and consistently opened up looks for teammates.

Also, Houston seemed to win every head-to-head in this game. Houston’s bench destroyed the Thunder which included Jeff Green and Ben McLemore combining for 36 points on 7-14 from three and finishing plus-55 in the game.

Thunder PG Dennis Schroder had an awful game, scoring only six points. It was Schroder’s first game in the bubble so he was expected to be a little rusty, but the possible Sixth Man of the Year had the worst plus-minus on the Thunder at minus-19. 

Rockets SG Eric Gordon played well in his first game back from injury, scoring 21 points, while Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had just 9 points (he averaged 19 points per game in the regular season).

But let’s not overreact to one result, especially in a Rockets game. Since Houston plays a randomized style, the Rockets could easily miss a bunch of threes and catch a beating.

I am BETTING THE THUNDER (+110) to work out their kinks and for the Rockets to have a little regression in 3-point shooting as OKC evens the series.

New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Thunder (+110) returns a profit of $110 if OKC upsets Houston.

Also see:

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

Ideally, you’d like some insurance on an underdog moneyline wager but in Thunder-Rockets I am PASSING on the spread. There’s an argument to be made for buying the Thunder +2 (-110), as Mike D’Antoni teams and opponents go on crazy offensive runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

We should see surgical Thunder PG Chris Paul in Game 2. OKC needs to establish what it does well on offense. The Thunder didn’t move the ball as well as they could have and they didn’t use their size to create more easy looks. Paul and company will have their best offensive performance of the bubble and the Rockets will keep up most of the game.

“LEAN” OVER 225.5 (-110), not “like” or “love”, the total in Thunder-Rockets.

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