The Washington Nationals (13-16) finish their series against the New York Yankees (17-16) Sunday in Yankee Stadium at 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York evened the series with Washington yesterday with a 4-3 extra-innings victory.
The Yankees, and New York SS Gleyber Torres specifically, spoiled an 8-inning, 1-run, 14-strikeout gem by Max Scherzer after Torres tied the game in the bottom of the 9th with an RBI single and hit a walk-off RBI single in the 11th.
Season series: 1-1.
RHP Joe Ross is on the rubber for the Nationals. Ross is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 across 5 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-1, in 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K vs. the Atlanta Braves Tuesday.
- Career vs. the Yankees: No appearances.
- Career in interleague play: 3-2 with a 4.79 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
RHP Domingo Germán is the projected starter for the Yankees. Germán is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA (25 IP, 12 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 5 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K in New York’s 7-3 victory over the Houston Astros Tuesday.
- Career vs. the Nationals: No appearances.
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Nationals at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Yankees 7, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the YANKEES (-165) for a half unit because their bullpen is more reliable and their lineup is more productive against righties.
For instance, New York’s lineup is middle of the league in several advanced hitting categories while Washington’s lineup is a bottom-10 crew in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Also, the Yankees relievers have the lowest xFIP, SIERA and WHIP in the Majors while the Nationals’ bullpen has the third-highest xFIP and the fifth-highest SIERA.
Lastly, I like the work FanGraphs does, which is a baseball advanced analytics website, and that site gives New York a 63.7% chance of winning this game but the implied probability of the YANKEES (-165) is 62.3%. I.e. there’s still value in New York’s money line based on advanced analytics.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+115) for a quarter unit because New York has the best run line record as a home favorite since the beginning of last season (27-19) and Washington’s pitching staff has been more lucky than good this year.
For example, the Nationals’ arms are 15th in ERA but have by far the lowest BAbip in MLB, which is a luck-based metric, and Washington pitchers have the sixth-worst xFIP and the second-worst WAR.
Over/Under (O/U)
Each lineup could plate some runs vs. the starters and weather forecasts predict nearly 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center which help all the explosive right-handed hitters.
Statcast grades Ross in the 46th percentile of hard-hit rate, 14th percentile of expected wOBA and 23rd percentile in K%. Germán doesn’t grade out much better in advanced pitching metrics.
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for a quarter unit.
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