The end to an exhausting NTT IndyCar Series season is days away and before it’s over, two generational talents will settle the drivers’ championship where one will become a three-time king of IndyCar.

For championship leader Alex Palou, his formidable lead of 54 points over Will Power entering the Milwaukee doubleheader was trimmed to 33 points prior to Sunday’s 206-lap Big Machine Music City Grand Prix at Nashville Speedway. With a maximum of 54 points available to any driver, Power can overtake Palou, but it won’t be easy.

IndyCar’s point structure awards 50 for a win, one for pole, one for leading a lap and two for leading the most laps, and barring a weird scenario where a disqualification takes place and the runner-up is given the win, it’s almost impossible to claim an IndyCar victory without leading at least one lap — the last — to then come away with 51 points.

Since we can’t predict who will win the point for pole and who will lead the most laps, we’ll set those three points aside and work with 51 while looking at what Palou and Power need to do to become IndyCar’s newest three-timer.

The points scenarios for Palou, who could reach the lofty territory of winning his third title in four seasons, aren’t complicated. If the Chip Ganassi Racing driver finishes ahead of Power, no matter where they are in the field, the title obvious goes to the Spaniard.

If Power wins (51 points), Palou has the luxury of needing to place 11th (where he’d lose 32 of his 33 points and win by one point) or better to defeat the Team Penske driver.

If Power isn’t on pole and runs second all day and finishes second (40 points), Palou needs to finish 22nd (where he’d lose 32 of his 33 points and win by one point) or better to earn the Astor Cup.

If Power finishes third (35 points), he can’t beat Palou, who will earn five points once he crosses the starting line on the opening lap and bring his tally from 33 to 38 points.

For Power, it’s win, a second, or bust. If that sounds like a tall task, it is, but we’re also dealing with someone driving for the best oval team in IndyCar, one of the few drivers in the field with experience at the 1.33-mile Nashville Speedway, and a person who’s thrived in medium- to large-size ovals.

Take Power’s wins at Fontana, Texas, Pocono and at the Indianapolis 500, plus all of his trips to victory lane Milwaukee, Gateway, and Iowa, and the driver of the No. 12 Chevy is the perfect candidate to face the long odds of beating Palou to the championship.

Palou has yet to win on an oval, but that doesn’t mean he’s easy prey for the Australian. When things go normally for the driver of the No. 10 Honda on ovals, he’s somewhere on or near the podium, which serves as Palou’s super power and could act as Power’s kryptonite.

At Milwaukee, Penske drivers held an advantage over Ganassi’s drivers, and yet, Power’s run to second in Race 1 was shadowed by Palou, who finished fifth. The last thing Power needs is for Palou to sit a few cars back and cruise home in Nashville, but that’s what tends to happen.

And then we have Milwaukee Race 2 where the rarest occurrence for Palou — poor reliability struck on the parade laps — and he had his second-worst finish of the year, a 19th, which should have handed the championship lead to Power. But Power spun, gave up the advantage and finished 10th.

If Palou can take the green flag and get those five points, the remaining 205 laps become an anxiety-filled affair as concerns for more reliability issues, engine malfunctions, pit stop issues, stalls, and risks of spins and contact will rule the afternoon or racing for both drivers. One needs to soar to earn the crown, the other needs to be good, but not great, and how might the racing gods intervene?

After the pre-race primer begins at 3pm ET on NBC, the drama plays out starting at 3:30.

Before we look at the Leaders Circle competition, let’s quickly divert to another factor that has impacted the championship.

Looking to the start of the season and the disqualifications that set St. Petersburg polesitter and race winner Josef Newgarden and third-place teammate Scott McLaughlin back, Newgarden earned 54 points for his complete domination of the event, which were voided when the push-to-pass cheating penalties was levied. McLaughlin lost his 35 points as well.

For Newgarden, returning the 54 points he surrendered would make no difference in his ability to vie for the championship at Nashville; his deficit today of 160 points to Palou would be reduced to 106 which, with that 54-point maximum at every event, still eliminates him from the championship fight by a wide margin.

His season full of great-or-terrible results — independent of the push-to-pass points forfeiture — took him out of contention a while ago, and where McLaughlin has risen into title contention, Newgarden has been stuck fluctuating between seventh and ninth in the standings since winning the Indianapolis 500. He’s eighth at the moment.

By contrast, McLaughlin would be second in the championship if the scandal didn’t happen and his points from St. Pete were returned. He’s 50 points shy of Palou, and while he’d need a miracle to win the championship, if those 35 points were added back to his tally, he’d be a close second to the leader in the drivers’ standings and need just 16 points to overtake the Ganassi driver at Nashville. Without the DQ, McLaughlin would be vying for his first IndyCar title, which speaks to his amazing consistency since joining the series as a full-timer in 2021.

He was Penske’s top driver in last year’s championship after placing third behind Palou and Ganassi’s Scott Dixon, and he’s third again, 17 points shy of Power. Depending on how Power’s fortunes fall, McLaughlin — a force on ovals as well — could climb to second in the final standings.

Only one Penske driver has a semi-realistic chance of demoting Palou, so it would be a surprise if McLaughlin and Newgarden aren’t running in his draft, but if Power has any issues in the race, the New Zealander is poised to secure his best championship finish if he has a competitive run.

With the Rookie of the Year championship over and done and decided in Linus Lundqvist’s favor, the Leaders Circle scrum to place inside the top 22 in the entrants’ championship and receive one of the 22 $1 million contracts will reach its end in Tennessee.

On the bubble in 22nd, it’s the No. 41 AJ Foyt Racing Chevy of Sting Ray Robb (175 points). But those in front of the No. 41 are by no means in clear water. The No. 30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Honda with Pietro Fittipaldi sits in 21st, but he’s only two points ahead the No. 41 (177 points) and needs to beat Robb.

The No. 66 Meyer Shank Racing Honda driven by David Malukas is safer in 20th (187 points), but an early issue could wreak havoc for the team in the Leaders Circle. The cluster of the Nos. 66, 30 and 41 and their efforts to remain on the good side of the line is the first theme to follow.

The second story centers on the No. 41 and the No. 20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevy driven by Christian Rasmussen, who had the car on the bubble entering Milwaukee 2 and lost it by one point (174). With the razor-thin separation between the Foyt and Carpenter entries, those 206 laps on Sunday will have a Robb vs Rasmussen watch in motion.

Last again among Leaders Circle contenders in 24th is the No. 51 Dale Coyne Racing Honda (160 points), and with 14 points to gain, Katherine Legge would need to have an excellent day while those in front of the No. 51 falter. Coyne’s No. 18 Honda sits 25th and last (137 points) and has no hope of claiming the last contract.

Palou vs Power, with McLaughlin the longest of long shots. Robb and Foyt vs Rasmussen and Carpenter, along with Robb and Rasmussen vs everybody in their vicinity. Let’s go.