It’s NASCAR playoffs time. Here’s what you need to know

Atlanta Motor Speedway marks the beginning of this year’s NASCAR Cup Series postseason, the 11th edition of the elimination format. It is the first time the postseason has started with a superspeedway race. As such, the first round is already being …

Atlanta Motor Speedway marks the beginning of this year’s NASCAR Cup Series postseason, the 11th edition of the elimination format.

It is the first time the postseason has started with a superspeedway race. As such, the first round is already being described by drivers as a wild card, with the Watkins Glen road course and then the Bristol short track filling out the round.

Ryan Blaney is officially in title defense mode. The Team Penske driver is one of six former champions in the playoff field, alongside Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. Only Logano has won the crown more than once.

Kyle Larson starts at the top of the playoff pole. Danny Hansen/Motorsport Images

The favorites for the 2024 crown seem clear (Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, to name a few), but if the last 10 years have taught us anything, it’s that there will be a driver who makes an unexpectedly deep run. Blaney, for instance, was not among the betting favorites last year, but went on a six-race tear at the end of the season and won the championship.

Speaking of Blaney, he can do something no other champion has done in the elimination era: go back-to-back.

Let the postseason begin. And as it does, here is what you need to know ahead of the next 10 weeks.

The drivers (in reseeded order)

1 – Kyle Larson: 40 playoff points

2 – Christopher Bell: 32 playoff points

3 – Tyler Reddick: 28 playoff points

4 – William Byron: 22 playoff points

5 – Ryan Blaney: 18 playoff points

6 – Denny Hamlin: 15 playoff points

7 – Chase Elliott: 14 playoff points

8 – Brad Keselowski: 8 playoff points

9 – Joey Logano: 7 playoff points

10 – Austin Cindric: 7 playoff points

11 – Daniel Suarez: 6 playoff points

12 – Alex Bowman: 5 playoff points

13 – Chase Briscoe: 5 playoff points

14 – Harrison Burton: 5 playoff points

15 – Martin Truex Jr.: 4 playoff points

16 – Ty Gibbs: 4 playoff points

The cutline

Kyle Larson has a 35-point advantage on the cutline as the first round begins. (12 advance from the 16 drivers who made the postseason). Alex Bowman sits on the bubble but is tied with Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton, the first two drivers in the elimination zone. Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. are one point below in the elimination zone.

First-timers

Harrison Burton and Ty Gibbs are in the postseason for the first time. Burton qualified in his third full season in the Cup Series. Gibbs qualifies in his second full season.

Ty Gibbs and Harrison Burton are both playoffs first-timers. Rusty Jarrett/Motorsport Images

The races

1 – Atlanta Motor Speedway (superspeedway)

2 – Watkins Glen (road course)

3 – Bristol Motor Speedway (short track)

4 – Kansas Speedway (intermediate)

5 – Talladega Superspeedway (superspeedway)

6 – Charlotte (road course)

7 – Las Vegas (intermediate)

8 – Homestead-Miami Speedway (intermediate)

9 – Martinsville Speedway (short track)

10 – Phoenix (short track)

Statistical nuggets

18: Playoff appearances for Denny Hamlin (the most of any driver in Cup Series history)

13: Playoff wins for Denny Hamlin (the most of any driver in 2024 playoffs)

12: The seed Ryan Blaney won the championship in 2023. The lowest-seeded driver to win the championship in the elimination era

8: Round of 8 appearances for Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano (the most of any driver in the 2024 playoffs)

5: Championship 4 appearances by Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. (the most of any driver in the 2024 playoffs)

4: Championship 4 appearances for Denny Hamlin

4: Playoff drivers for Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing

4: The number of times the No. 1 seed has won the Cup Series championship in the elimination era

3: Championship 4 appearances for Chase Elliott

2: Championship 4 appearances for Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski

2: The times the No. 5 and No. 7 seeds have won the Cup Series championship in the elimination era

2: Drivers who have won multiple championships in the elimination era (Kyle Busch; Joey Logano)

1: Championship 4 appearance for Ryan Blaney and William Byron

1: The times the No. 2 seed has won the Cup Series championship in the elimination era

0: Playoff wins for Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton and Ty Gibbs

Outlook

The expectation is that drivers like Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Hamlin, and Blaney will make deep playoff runs. It will simply come down to execution for the top teams. Others like Elliott, Keselowski, and Truex can undoubtedly put themselves in the picture.

But it will be a taller task for drivers with few playoff points. A win, of course, would negate that worry, but when thinking about points and mulligans to fall back on, drivers like Logano and Truex don’t have the playoff points they would want.

Longshots like Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez (No. 99) don’t figure in many playoff calculations, but the format gives them an outsized opportunity. John Harrelson/Motorsport Images

Briscoe is giving one last ride for Stewart-Haas Racing, and the emotion and determination that goes with that shouldn’t be overlooked. But it will be a tough fight unless the No. 14 team can start putting together some incredible consistency and win again. Darlington was just his seventh top-10 finish of the season, among the fewest of the playoff drivers.

And then there are the long shots. Daniel Suarez hasn’t shown that he has what it takes to contend consistently against the top teams. Harrison Burton and Wood Brothers Racing are happy to be in the postseason, which will have long-term financial implications for the organization. But neither is expected to make a deep playoff run, let alone find a way to the finale in Phoenix.

The first round could set the tone for the postseason. Atlanta could put drivers in a hole going into Watkins Glen, which is expected to have significant tire falloff that will be a variable for race teams. Tire falloff could also be the storyline at Bristol. Not only will the first cut race be a short track, but Goodyear is bringing the same tire compound to Bristol that was run in the spring, when teams were thrown an unexpected curveball with massive tire wear.

Then, in the second round, we see another superspeedway with Talladega. It would not be surprising if some of the expected contenders are not around by the time the last eight drivers are decided.

Round of 12 prediction: Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Blaney, Hamlin, Elliott, Keselowski, Logano, Bowman, Truex, Gibbs.

Round of 8 prediction: Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Blaney, Hamlin, Elliott, Truex.

Championship 4: Larson, Bell, Reddick, Hamlin.

2024 Cup Series champion: Larson

Better late than never for Truex’s final NASCAR playoffs stand

Few drivers were more relieved to clinch a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs than Martin Truex Jr., after thinking he made the biggest mistake of his career at the Southern 500. Truex crashed on lap three of Sunday night’s race when he got …

Few drivers were more relieved to clinch a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs than Martin Truex Jr., after thinking he made the biggest mistake of his career at the Southern 500.

Truex crashed on lap three of Sunday night’s race when he got loose in Turns 1 and 2 and came up the track into the path of Ryan Blaney. The collision damaged his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota beyond repair, and Truex left the regular-season finale having earned just one point with a 36th-place finish. He entered the weekend without securing a place the postseason, as he was 58 points above the cutline.

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“It was pretty wild, honestly,” Truex said of the emotions after the crash. “I wanted to leave Darlington, dig a hole and crawl into it for a couple of days. It was a terrible feeling. I felt like it was probably the biggest mistake I had made in my entire racing career, and that’s pretty bad, especially given what the day was and what was on the line.

“Obviously, I’m glad we made it, and we’ve got a lot of work to do. So, I’m ready to get after it.”

It took until the end of the second stage for Truex to punch his ticket to the postseason and it came through the help of Chris Buescher, who was also trying to make the postseason on points. Buescher did not earn enough points through the first two stages to push Truex further into the danger zone. Truex made the postseason by six points.

The 2017 Cup Series champion admitted he couldn’t bear to stay for the remainder of the Southern 500 and watch how it would unfold. He got a text confirming he’d made the postseason after the hour-and-a-half flight back home.

“I did leave; I couldn’t sit there anymore,” Truex said. “I took a shower, calmed down, watched for about 10 minutes and was like, ‘I can’t sit here.’ So, I got out of there, and then as soon as I landed, I found out. It was good to get out of there and try to think about something else.”

Truex enters his final postseason with one last chance at a second Cup Series championship, but he’ll have to do it from the No. 15 seed with four playoff points.

“That’s all I could think of [Sunday night], was it ruined our whole season, and the next 10 weeks are going to suck,” Truex said. “Now we have a chance for the next 10 not to suck. It’s going to be fun.”

Logano eager for a reset as playoffs begin

A long NASCAR Cup Series regular season is over, culminating with the toughest race of the season Sunday night at Darlington Raceway. Joey Logano, for one, was glad to see it end. “Good,” Logano laughed. “Thank God. I was ready for that one to be …

A long NASCAR Cup Series regular season is over, culminating with the toughest race of the season Sunday night at Darlington Raceway.

Joey Logano, for one, was glad to see it end.

“Good,” Logano laughed. “Thank God. I was ready for that one to be over and have the second part of our season fire off and have a reset in points.”

Logano finished eighth in the Southern 500, his first top-10 finish since mid-July at Pocono Raceway. The regular season produced one win for Logano (Nashville Superspeedway) and two stage wins. He finished 15th in the regular season standings.

But now that the field has been reset, the two-time Cup Series champion for Team Penske (the only driver with multiple championships in this year’s playoff field) begins his quest for another title reseeded in the ninth position. But he has just seven playoff points to start the postseason.

“We kind of dug ourselves a pretty deep hole early in the season and honestly, crazy things have happened all year,” Logano said. “I’m glad to have that behind us, and we close the gap there … when the playoffs start. So, we’ll fire it away and get this thing in the Championship 4.”

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Logano has been in the title race five times — along with Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, the most for any driver in the Cup Series. However, on the heels of his second championship last year, Logano was eliminated in the first round.

The team hasn’t won multiple races in a season since its 2022 title run. In 2022 and ’23, Logano ended the season with the same number of top-10 and top-five finishes. And although they continue to be in title contention, it still appears the team is fighting for consistent speed that would keep them near the front.

“We have a lot of experience on this team, I think that’s probably the biggest [strength],” Logano said. “We’ve all been there, done that at this point. We’re a pretty old team. There’s nothing wrong with that; I think that’s a good thing when you can go into the playoffs because for a lot of these guys, it’s some of their first, second, or third time in the playoffs, and maybe some of them haven’t gone very far.

“So, we’ve been there and done that, and I feel confident we can run hard and get something out of it.”

The fight for survival begins with the first postseason race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. It’s the first time a superspeedway race will be the kickoff event, which can quickly put favorites on their back foot early. Logano will be considered a favorite, as Ford drivers are on superspeedways, but he’s not getting ahead of himself.

“Yeah, but it’s still a superspeedway and you saw how the last one ended in Daytona,” the 2023 spring Atlanta winner said. “As confident as you feel about having speed in your race car and being able to win that race, you also have the same thought in your mind that, boy, you can get caught up in something there, and it happens really quick. We just have to stay up front and get stage points when you can and race your guts out until the end of that one.”

No matter what might be ahead, it’s Logano’s favorite time of the year.

“I love it. I love it,” he smiled. “That’s why I said I’m happy the regular season is over. I wish we had a better finish through the points but the positive side is it’s over. So, moving on.”

Wallace pragmatic about missing NASCAR playoffs: “We weren’t good enough”

Bubba Wallace and 23XI Racing “weren’t good enough” to make the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs in their last chance on Sunday night at Darlington Raceway. Wallace finished 16th in the Southern 500 after starting from the pole and leading 37 laps. …

Bubba Wallace and 23XI Racing “weren’t good enough” to make the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs in their last chance on Sunday night at Darlington Raceway.

Wallace finished 16th in the Southern 500 after starting from the pole and leading 37 laps. Although he gained points on his competition (Chris Buescher, who was sitting above the cutline entering the night) in both stages, it came down to needing a victory in the final stage to overcome the deficit. A walk-off win by Chase Briscoe negated the night’s work for both Buescher and Wallace as Briscoe took the final spot on the playoff grid.

“Wasn’t good enough; simple as that,” Wallace said. “I can get into the weeds, but I’ll probably say the wrong thing. But we just weren’t good enough, and [you’ve] got to be good enough to get here. So that’s it.”

The final deficit for Wallace was 27 points.

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Wallace was outrunning Buescher through much of the final stage to cut the deficit to within just a few points in live time. With 46 laps to go, the favor fell back in Buescher’s hands after he pitted for fresh tires after being involved in a caution with Todd Gilliland. Wallace stayed on track.

On a restart with 26 laps to go, the playoff picture changed for the final time as Briscoe took the race lead. Briscoe led the rest of the way to the finish.

Wallace, meanwhile, was collected in a caution with 24 laps to go. The multi-car crash damaged the rear end of Wallace’s car and put him further behind on the leaderboard.

“We just got behind on our adjustments; we were back and forth,” Wallace said. “We were a little too loose, a little too tight. And that caution with a couple of laps on tires where we stayed out… I don’t know if that was the deciding factor, but we just got so tight there and got back there in traffic in a spot we hadn’t been all day and got caught up in someone else’s mess.

“It’s unfortunate. I hate it for our guys. But hats off to [Chase Briscoe]. I thought I did something yesterday (with the pole) – they one-upped us and showed up when it was game time, so that’s pretty badass. So congrats to them. Man, just wasn’t good enough for 16th this year. I hate that. It stings saying that, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort from all of us on the 23 car. So, best of luck to [Tyler Reddick], and hopefully, a Toyota wins.”

Wallace has made the postseason once (2023) in seven seasons.

Larson seeded first in Cup Series playoff field after Darlington

After one last summer surprise winner, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are set. Chase Briscoe won his way into the postseason Sunday night at Darlington Raceway. In doing so, Briscoe kicked out Chris Buescher, who was sitting on the bubble entering …

After one last summer surprise winner, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are set.

Chase Briscoe won his way into the postseason Sunday night at Darlington Raceway. In doing so, Briscoe kicked out Chris Buescher, who was sitting on the bubble entering the Southern 500. Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain also missed the postseason.

Briscoe’s victory puts one Stewart-Haas Racing driver into the playoffs. It is Briscoe’s second appearance in the postseason.

The summer stretch saw drivers like Joey Logano go from the cutline to winning his way into the playoffs in Nashville. Alex Bowman did the same in Chicago. Austin Dillon won his way in – for three days — before it was taken away by NASCAR. Harrison Burton and Briscoe capped things off in the final two weeks of the regular season.

Kyle Larson goes into the postseason as the No. 1 seed while Tyler Reddick claimed the regular-season championship. Burton and Ty Gibbs are two first-time drivers in the playoffs.

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The reseeded 16-driver playoff grid heading into the first round at Atlanta Motor Speedway is:

1. Kyle Larson: 2,040 points

2. Christopher Bell: 2,032 points

3. Tyler Reddick: 2,028 points

4. William Byron: 2,022 points

5. Ryan Blaney: 2,018 points

6. Denny Hamlin: 2,015 points

7. Chase Elliott: 2,014 points

8. Brad Keselowski: 2,008 points

9. Joey Logano: 2,007 points

10. Austin Cindric: 2,007 points

11. Daniel Suarez: 2,006 points

12. Alex Bowman: 2,005 points

13. Chase Briscoe: 2,005 points

14. Harrison Burton: 2,005 points

15. Ty Gibbs: 2,004 points

16. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,004 points

The first round of the postseason consists of Atlanta, Watkins Glen and Bristol Motor Speedway.

Wallace on Darlington: ‘I need the best race I’ve ever had in my career’

Bubba Wallace is not letting the magnitude of Sunday night’s NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway weigh on his mind. “I’m (more) stressed about being winless in damn near two seasons,” Wallace said. “That’s just a general …

Bubba Wallace is not letting the magnitude of Sunday night’s NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway weigh on his mind.

“I’m (more) stressed about being winless in damn near two seasons,” Wallace said. “That’s just a general overall. But the situation we’re in now compared to, let’s say this was Daytona last year or Bristol, the cutoff race, I have no stress compared to those last year. And I think that’s for the better. It’s allowing me to focus on the important things and the right things and everything we need to do to succeed.”

Wallace is 21 points out of the final spot on the Cup Series playoff grid. He is the first driver on the outside looking in and can mathematically earn a spot on points. But he is approaching the Southern 500 in must-win mode for his 23XI Racing team.

This is why, despite saying he doesn’t feel stressed, he’s not denying there is stress there. In his fourth season driving for 23XI Racing, Wallace is seeking just his second postseason berth. A year ago, Wallace made it on points when it came down to the final race of the regular season.

“You get down to crunch time and say we have a great first, second stage and things start to get tighter — you have to keep the emotions in check,” Wallace said. “I think I’ve learned that over the last couple of years; the races aren’t over until the checkered flag falls. So, whatever happens, if all four corners on the car are still intact and you’re capable of running fast laps, you have to.

“No matter how tough the going gets, you have to keep pushing. (But) stress right now? I feel good.”

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There are three spots unclaimed in the postseason field. Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher are the drivers on the positive side of the battle.

Darlington has been one of Wallace’s better racetracks over the last two years. He has four straight top-10 finishes at the facility in the last four races and has qualified eighth or better in the last three.

The situation Sunday night boils down to Wallace believing, “I need to (have) the best race I’ve ever had in my career to make the playoffs.

“And I don’t say that from a desperation mode. I say it as I’m confident in our team, in our ability, as long all outside factors execute — example, pit crew and strategy. Then there is no reason why we can’t be in victory lane at Darlington on Sunday. So that’s what we need to focus on and that’s where we’re at.”

Chastain looks for breakthrough as playoff cutoff looms

Ross Chastain admitted Saturday that, yes, he is surprised to find himself going into the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale outside of a postseason position. Chastain then paused and took a small breath. “Yeah, yeah, it is [surprising],” …

Ross Chastain admitted Saturday that, yes, he is surprised to find himself going into the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale outside of a postseason position.

Chastain then paused and took a small breath.

“Yeah, yeah, it is [surprising],” Chastain reiterated. “This stuff is so hard. I knew that. I knew that whenever I ran my first Truck race in 2011 and as I stepped through the ranks, and I was in a Cup car here at Darlington where we were just there to run the laps and go a single-digit number of laps down.”

Chastain and Trackhouse Racing are 27 points from the final spot on the playoff grid. Mathematically, Chastain could point his way into the postseason if given an opening by his competition. He would need to leapfrog Bubba Wallace, who is the first driver on the outside looking in, and Chris Buescher, who holds down the final spot going into Sunday night at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA).

A driver can earn a maximum of 20 points by winning the first two stages. A victory in the Southern 500 is an automatic bid into the postseason.

“I knew, obviously, how challenging it was,” Chastain continued. “I also had this dream that it would be a whole lot easier when I had all the funding, the tires, the pit crews and everything. And it has; I don’t expect to go laps down anymore. It still happens every now and then.

“But I’d say, right now, it’s real that we are in this position. I’d say [I’m] surprised. If you would have had me fill out a bingo card at the start of the season, I wouldn’t have dabbed this block for sure.”

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Although he is 14th in the championship standings, Chastain has been pushed out of a playoff spot because there are three drivers with victories below him in points. It is the first time since Chastain has driven for Trackhouse Racing (2022 to the present) that Chastain has not been locked into the postseason before it began.

Being winless is also a change of pace. Chastain won two races in both of his first two seasons driving the No. 1 Chevrolet.

The point swing to push Chastain to a make-or-break weekend has been hefty. A little over two months ago, he left New Hampshire Motor Speedway sitting 12th on the playoff grid with a 93-point advantage.

One of the keys to his struggles has been the lack of consistent speed, Chastain said. He also hasn’t earned the stage points the team needs to accumulate like the other contenders. But not all of the misfortune has been his own doing.

Chastain was wiped out from the front row at Nashville Superspeedway on a late-race restart. He was spun from the middle of the pack during an overtime attempt at Michigan International Speedway.

In the seven races since New Hampshire, Chastain has failed to finish twice and has one top-10 finish. He’s led 57 laps.

“I didn’t crash on my own at Pocono in years past, so that one stands out for sure,” Chastain said of the loss of points. “You could go down the list, and we could dissect it over a four-hour media availability, but ultimately, it just comes back to how fast can you go and can you finish those benchmark moments of Stage 1, 2 and collect the points.

“I don’t really have anything to point at, but it adds up to points. I don’t know how else to answer that.”

Wallace and Chastain face make-or-break regular season finale

Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain are the only two drivers on the outside looking in who can mathematically make the NASCAR Cup Series postseason on points. The regular season comes to an end next weekend at Darlington Raceway and three spots remain …

Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain are the only two drivers on the outside looking in who can mathematically make the NASCAR Cup Series postseason on points.

The regular season comes to an end next weekend at Darlington Raceway and three spots remain unclaimed. Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, and Chris Buescher sit in those positions.

Wallace is the first driver below the cutline going into Darlington at a 21-point deficit. Chastain is 27 points below a transfer spot.

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“You have one [23XI Racing] car fighting for a regular season championship and another car right around the bubble,” Wallace said after finishing fifth at Daytona. “It’s unacceptable. I’ll take all of that weight on my shoulders – should have won multiple times this year and we haven’t. We don’t deserve to be here, and we are.

“I’ve got to go win next week. That’s it.”

Harrison Burton pushed Wallace further behind in the hunt by winning at Daytona and moving into a spot on the playoff grid. Entering the weekend, Wallace was one point behind Chastain.

Chastain finished 12th, salvaging the night after being involved in an early crash.

“I look at it like we have another chance to go win the Southern 500,” the Trackhouse Racing driver said. “That’s what I’m focused on this week. The points, they give them out at the stages and end of the race. If you run well, they give you a lot of them. I just get excited for a chance to go win the Southern 500.”

Wallace and Chastain both made the postseason last year.

The playoff grid battle going into Darlington:

14: Martin Truex Jr. + 58

15: Ty Gibbs + 39

16: Chris Buescher + 21

Those in a must-win situation to make the postseason include Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Dillon penalty doesn’t change strategies for drivers on playoff bubble

With three races left in the Cup Series regular season, the battle at the playoff cutline couldn’t be much tighter. And here’s the crazy thing – it was even worse four days ago. Bubba Wallace currently holds a three-point edge on Chris Buescher, who …

With three races left in the Cup Series regular season, the battle at the playoff cutline couldn’t be much tighter.

And here’s the crazy thing — it was even worse four days ago.

Bubba Wallace currently holds a three-point edge on Chris Buescher, who sits tied with Ross Chastain on the playoff bubble. After Austin Dillon’s shock win at Richmond Raceway, it looked like only Wallace would be in the provisional playoff grid. But an additional spot was opened up after Dillon was stripped of the playoff perks for crashing Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin, placing Buescher back in the field of 16 on a tiebreaker.

The news came as a relief to Wallace.

“It definitely helped us out,” Wallace said Saturday. “We’re still only in by three (points). But there’s four spots now instead of three. Definitely a relief there, but it’s still going to be a dogfight for the next three weeks.

“Still not safe, but there’s an extra spot open now.”

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Wallace has been on a roll in the heat of the summer, notching an average finish of 7.8 in the past five races. It’s been enough to elevate the two-time Cup winner from 15th to 12th in the standings, keeping him just inside of the playoff field despite the number of available spots on points dropping to just four. The only winless drivers ahead of him at this stage are Martin Truex Jr. — who sits 75 points clear of Wallace and comfortably in the playoff field without any issues — and sophomore Ty Gibbs, whose once lengthy advantage is down to 18 points over Chastain.

“We’ve shown up with a lot of speed the last five weeks,” Wallace said. “We’ve shown up with our heads in the game and we’ve been close a couple times. You’ve gotta keep putting your name in the hat. We went for a long time not even having the right size hat on. Showing up and being in the game from the start of practice to the end of the race, which is so hard to do every weekend.”

This summer stretch has been key for Wallace’s playoff ambitions, but he knows he can’t get complacent now. “

“It doesn’t matter how good your last five was, it doesn’t mean your next five are going to be the same,” he said. “It’s a new set of downs — it’s a new week.”

The drivers around Wallace on the cut line have been trending in the opposite direction. Buescher had five top 10s in the opening seven races of the season and came as close as possible to winning as anyone in the sport’s history at Kansas Speedway, but he’s had as many finishes outside of the top 20 (three) as in the top-10 over the past 11 weeks. Chastain had a similar early season stretch and sat as high as fifth in the standings, but, faded and suffered two DNFs in the weeks leading up to the Olympic break that helped push him from ninth in points to 13th.

It’s an uncomfortable position for both drivers, but one Buescher expected without a victory.

“We knew at the beginning of the year, before we ever got to Daytona, that the only way to really be comfortable at any point before the playoffs was to win,” he said. “There’s no way to get through the next three weeks and be comfortable without one.”

The discomfort isn’t going to get any better in the short term. Each of the final three races offers a unique challenge — high speeds at Michigan International Speedway, the risk of the Big One and a surprise winner at Daytona International Speedway, 500 grueling miles at Darlington Raceway. The points situation could swing wildly from week to week.

Dillon’s removal from the equation, appeal pending, leaves an extra spot up for grabs. But it won’t change how Buescher or Chastain approach the next three weeks”.

“Yeah, it affects us,” Chastain said. “You look at that and how it resets, kind of just note it and move on. There’s still an appeal next week, so we’ll see how that plays out.

“But it doesn’t change how I drive here. The math says it doesn’t really change for us much. All of us just slid one spot. It’s just points. If we gain a handful of points, we’ll be ahead of all of them.”

Buescher admits his team would prioritize limiting mistakes if there are any issues to his bubble rivals. But in the absence of that, his team is just focusing on execution.

“It’s similar to the last couple months for us,” he said. “When we go to the racetrack, we need to control what we can. We need to take these Saturdays and be good in qualifying. Figure out how to have a good race car. If we can qualify well, then you can typically grab stage points early. That just comes with running well — it’s not that we’re chasing stage points in Stage 1, it’s just a matter of just being good.

“For us that’s the same way we’re going to approach these. How do we have fast race cars and how do we get our Fifth Third Bank Mustang into victory lane.”

As for Chastain, the goal is simple.

The only goal for the 1 team and Trackhouse is to just go faster,” he said. “That’s going to solve a lot of our problems.”

Wallace, Chastain at opposite ends of playoff momentum swings

Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain continue to trend in opposite directions on the NASCAR Cup Series playoff grid. Wallace earned a fifth-place finish Sunday at Indianapolis to further cut into the bubble spot. With four races to go in the regular …

Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain continue to trend in opposite directions on the NASCAR Cup Series playoff grid.

Wallace earned a fifth-place finish Sunday at Indianapolis to further cut into the bubble spot. With four races to go in the regular season, the 23XI Racing driver is seven points out of a spot in the postseason.

Unfortunately for Chastain, he’s the guy with the slim seven-point advantage. Chastain has fallen to the bubble spot due to four finishes of 15th or worse in the last six races. Before the slide began, Chastain was comfortably above the cut line, sitting 12th on the grid leaving Iowa Speedway with a 71-point advantage.

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Here is how it’s all played out since:

• Joey Logano went from below the cutline by six points to above the cutline by 13 on Wallace after New Hampshire. Chastain, still 12th on the grid, increased his gap to the cutline from 71 to 93 points.

• Logano won a week later at Nashville Superspeedway, pushing below the cutline by 51 points to Alex Bowman. Chastain, meanwhile, fell to 14th on the grid with a 66-point advantage.

• Another shake-up came in Chicago where Bowman went from the cutline to locked in with a victory. Wallace, still below the cutline, knocked a few points off his deficit to be 45 points behind Chris Buescher. Chastain fell another spot to 15th on the grid with a 53-point advantage.

• Wallace took a big chunk out of the gap at Pocono Raceway thanks to a top-10 finish while Chastain crashed out. Chastain fell to the cutline with a 27-point gap on Wallace.

• Wallace finished fifth at Indianapolis while Chastain finished 15th. The gap narrows to seven points.

“We were fifth — what a day,” Wallace said. “I just did not do a good job on Friday and Saturday and set us behind for track position. I really didn’t know what our car had, but I knew the people we had on it and that is what matters the most. I appreciate Bootie (Barker, crew chief) and the gang for just giving me a car to work with. The No. 23 U.S. Air Force Toyota Camry was really, really fast. It felt really good.

“After a few laps, I was like, ‘I don’t know what we have but it is good to be back on the oval.’ The finish is making my mood better, but it was really difficult to pass. All-in-all, a good day. A good points day.”

Here is the playoff grid heading to Richmond Raceway (Aug. 11):

1. Kyle Larson: 4 wins, 28 playoff points

2. Christopher Bell: 3 wins, 24 playoff points

3. Denny Hamlin: 3 wins, 21 playoff points

4. William Byron: 3 wins, 16 playoff points

5. Ryan Blaney: 2 wins, 12 playoff points

6. Tyler Reddick: 1 win, 8 playoff points

7. Austin Cindric: 1 win, 7 playoff points

8. Chase Elliott: 1 win, 6 playoff points

9. Joey Logano: 1 win, 6 playoff points

10. Brad Keselowski: 1 win, 5 playoff points

11. Alex Bowman: 1 win, 5 playoff points

12. Daniel Suarez: 1 win, 5 playoff points

13. Martin Truex Jr.: +108 to the cutline

14. Ty Gibbs: +42 to the cutline

15. Chris Buescher: +17 to the cutline

16. Ross Chastain: +7 to the cutline

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17. Bubba Wallace: -7

18. Chase Briscoe: -83

19. Kyle Busch: -112

20. Todd Gilliland: -118

Richmond, Michigan, Daytona and Darlington will complete the regular season.