The NASCAR Cup Series wraps up the 2020 season at Phoenix Raceway Sunday at 3 p.m. ET for the Season Finale 500. Below, we analyze the Season Finale 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
Season Finale 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:28 a.m. ET.
The Cup Series winds up its playoffs in Phoenix, crowning a championship at the track for the first time. From 2002 to 2019 a champion had been crowned at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (+450 for Sunday’s 500) is on the Busch pole. He finished seventh in the FanShield in the first stop at Phoenix back on March 8.
- Elliott has managed a 13.0 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in his nine career Cup starts in Phoenix, posting two top-5 finishes and five runs inside the top 10. That includes a runner-up finish in the fall ’17 installment.
- Penske Racing’s Joey Logano won the FanShield 500 in the first stop at Phoenix, and he has posted three straight top-10 finishes. However, he has a 14.1 AFP across the past 10 Cups starts in Phoenix with four finishes of 18th or lower during the span. He is one of four drivers vying for the overall series title, and he starts on the outside of Row 1 next to Elliott.
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin won the fall stop in Phoenix last season, and he has finished fifth or better in three of his past five runs. He was a dismal 20th earlier this season. He will go off fourth in Sunday’s race.
- Penske’s Brad Keselowski is also vying for a title, and he’ll go off third in Sunday’s starting grid. He has posted a very ordinary 13.0 AFP across his past 10 starts at Phoenix, including finishes of 19th, 10th and 11th in his past three runs at the flat track.
Who is going to win the Season Finale 500?
KEVIN HARVICK (+425) is the chalk, and it will be interesting to see how he responds Sunday. He was shockingly eliminated from the championship after last week’s 17th-place finish at Martinsville. He will not be running for a title despite the fact he could finish as the only driver this season with double-digit wins if he claims checkers.
Harvick has been Mr. Phoenix over the years. He has finished ninth or better in 10 straight starts at the track, and he has turned in two victories and nine finishes of sixth or better since the Fall ’15 Phoenix race.
JGR’s KYLE BUSCH (+900) is also outside of the top four, and he will not be running for a title. He won back-to-back starts in Phoenix in the Fall ’18 and Spring ’19 runs, and he has been third or better in each of his past five starts at the Arizona flat track. He picked up his first win of the season just two races ago, and he could finish up strong and build momentum for 2021 with a win here.
Place legal sports bets on NASCAR action in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV through BetMGM. Sign up and bet at BetMGM now!
You cannot ignore the “Top 4” running for a title, however. Among the championship contenders, HAMLIN (+500) has been the most consistent over the years. He won last season’s fall run at the track, and outside of Harvick, Hamlin has probably been the hottest and most consistent driver this season. Hamlin has never won the series championship, but if he can win Sunday, he would give JGR its fourth series title in the past six seasons. He’s a good bet to do just that.
Series Finale 500 long-shot bet
ARIC ALMIROLA (+4000) is a solid value at this price, as he has turned in five top-10 finishes in his past six starts, including a pair of fourth-place runs. Overall, he has six top-10 showings with 26 laps led in 19 career Cup starts at the track, turning in a respectable 14.89 AFP.
Lastly, we say good-bye to JIMMIE JOHNSON (+6500) and CLINT BOWYER (+6500), as the duo are calling it a career after Sunday’s race. The seven-time Cup champion Johnson has four wins in 34 career Cup starts at Phoenix with a 10.34 AFP, second-best to Harvick among drivers with at least two Cup starts. Bowyer hasn’t been as consistent in the Arizona desert, managing a 17.9 AFP in 30 Cup starts. However, both are worth a small-unit bet as they make their final start, especially with exceptionally long odds.
NASCAR Cup Championship odds
- Elliott +240
- Hamlin +240
- Logano +275
- Keselowski +300
Want action on this race? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1950]