In a women’s strawweight title fight on the main card, Rose Namajunas meets Zhang Weili Saturday at UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Below, we analyze the UFC 268 Namajunas vs. Weili odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card begins on PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Namajunas reclaimed her championship strap April 24 in the most recent meeting between these two fighters at UFC 261. Namajunas picked up the KO/TKO victory in just 78 seconds. With a split-decision victory July 11, 2020, over Jessica Andrade at UFC 251 the win over Zhang marked her second straight win.
Zhang opened her UFC career with five consecutive victories, and she picked up a championship belt Aug. 31, 2019, with a KO/TKO win in just 42 seconds over Jessica Andrade. She followed that up with an emotional split-decision win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2020. She will be looking for redemption after not lasting long in the process of losing her belt to Namajunas.
UFC 268 Namajunas vs. Weili: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:53 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Namajunas -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Weili -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -107 | Under -127)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -117 | No -116)
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UFC 268 Namajunas vs. Weili: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Namajunas (11-4-0) | Weili (21-2-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
NAMAJUNAS (-102) is a good bet as a slight underdog in this fight. She has a two-inch reach advantage and will be looking to get the fight to the canvas as quickly as possible.
Namajunas holds a 1.89-to-1.24 takedown advantage, with a 53.33-to-23.81 lead in takedown accuracy percentage. In addition, she has a 0.83 submission average compared to just 0.49 for Zhang.
I think Namajunas will use her reach advantage to knock out Zhang for the second consecutive fight. As such, NAMAJUNAS BY TKO/KO (+330) is a tremendous value play for a chance to more than triple up.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (-116): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the play since I expect a stoppage by Namajunas. Playing UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-127) is also worth a look if you want a little bit of wiggle room.
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