The New York Yankees (33-27 regular season) and Cleveland Indians (35-25) tangle in a best-of-three AL Wild Card Series opener at Progressive Field Tuesday night at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze the Yankees-Indians MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Yankees at Indians: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Cole struggled at times during the season but rallied to record a 2.84 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 12 starts. He enters his fifth postseason campaign having allowed just 3 earned runs (7 total) on 14 hits over his last 27 innings of the regular season.
- Logged a 1.72 ERA in 5 starts last October with the Houston Astros and has registered a 2.60 ERA in 65 2/3 postseason innings in his career.
- Has a limited-but-dominant history against current Cleveland bats: .341 OPS, .050 ISO allowed, 24.6% strikeout rate.
Bieber forged a tremendous 1.63 ERA on an 0.87 WHIP in 12 regular-season starts. He fanned a league-high 14.2 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.4.
- Excels in limiting hard contact. Allowed an average exit velocity of 95 mph on just 26.8% of balls in play.
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Yankees at Indians: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Yankees
- RP Tommy Kahnle (elbow) out
Indians
- RP Emmanuel Clase (suspension) out
Yankees at Indians: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
The Indians (-106) have a bullpen edge in the series, but New York’s (-106) best chance to have a two-inning stint for its underperforming relief crew is in Cole’s Tuesday start. The Yankees ace has faced 25 batters per game over his last four turns.
Bieber dominates lefty bats (.417 OPS allowed), but New York generates much of its offense from the other batter’s box. The Yankees are at their best against right-handed pitching (.818 OPS). They have struggled on the road (.677 OPS), but there is some small-sample and BABIP reasoning underlying that factor, one that appears to be overrated in the analysis of this contest.
In what is a tremendous starting pitching matchup, Cole has the edge in postseason experience with Bieber making his first playoff start. And then there is some strength-of-schedule to weigh into their numbers. As tremendous as Bieber is, he has not faced as many dangerous hitters as Cole.
An example going the other way: In regular season play, the Indians ranked 27th in the league in OPS with a .689 mark. In his dozen starts, Cole didn’t face any club ranked lower than 14th in OPS.
Peg New York as worthy of a -115 to -120 tag. There is value in the YANKEES (-106) play.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The YANKEES -1.5 (+165) would need to edge up over +170 to make for a recommendation on a night that figures to be dominated by elite starters.
Over/Under (O/U)
The tag — Over 6.5 (-110)/Under 6.5 (-110) — is low, but so are any trend signals that might trigger a lean either way. PASS.
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