Tag: MLB Playoffs NLDS betting odds lines picks best bets against the spread money line over under predictions

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Game 3 odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins NLDS Game 3 betting odds and lines, with MLB betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins will lock horns and match wits in Game 3 of their National League Division Series Thursday. The afternoon contest at neutral-site Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas is scheduled for a 2:08 p.m. ET start time.  The Marlins will bat last as the official home team. Below, we analyze the Braves-Marlins Game 3 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Series: Atlanta leads 2-0.

Braves vs. Marlins: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Kyle Wright vs. RHP Sixto Sanchez

Wright is a 25-year-old, third-year Major Leaguer making his first postseason start. The Atlanta right-hander posted a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts over the regular season.

  • Was shaky over four of his first five starts in the small-sample 2020 season, including back-to-back subpar efforts against these Marlins on either side of a stint on the injured list Aug. 14 and Sept. 8. He was solid over his last three regular-season starts with a 2.37 ERA.

Sanchez logged a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 7 starts during the regular season. The 22-year-old rookie was solid in his first playoff start, a scoreless five-inning stint against the Chicago Cubs Friday in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.

  • Excels at getting ground balls (58% GB) and limiting hard contact (29% HC).

Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, in NJ, IN, CO and WV.  Bet now!

Braves vs. Marlins: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Marlins

  • OF Starling Marte (finger) out

Braves vs. Marlins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:10 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML)

The Marlins (+125) were a good fade candidate coming into the postseason. By some analytic estimates, Miami was some six or seven games out too far over its skis with a 31-29 record in the regular season. There figures to be some overripe assessments of the Marlins starting pitching — including Sanchez — and the offense (big BABIP numbers in high-leverage scoring situations). Throw in a bottom-5 bullpen, and you get a team not worthy of backing in October.

Atlanta (-139) was hammered early by the money line market for this contest. The BRAVES (-139) are still the lean but it may be wise to wait out a possible line correction toward Miami in order to get a better price.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

For a high-ish postseason run total, the ATLANTA -1.5 (+110) is worth a look. Miami scuffles against right-handed pitching (.691 OPS in the regular season). The Marlins lineup creates more right-vs.-right matchups than average and that plays into a strength for Wright, who owns a career .982 OPS-against when facing lefty bats and a .716 mark when facing righties.

New to sports betting? A $50 wager on the Braves -1.5 (+110) returns a $55 profit it Atlanta beats Miami by 2-or-more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

An 8.5-run tag is drawing action on the high side. Again, that’s the lean and it’s worth waiting out the OVER 8.5 (-115) for a better price on a temporary dip.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 2 odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLDS Game 2 betting odds and lines, with MLB betting picks, tips and best bets.

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers continue their National League Division Series with Game 2 Wednesday night at 9:08 p.m. ET at the MLB postseason neutral location of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers will bat last as the official home team. Below, we analyze the Padres-Dodgers Game 2 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Los Angeles won Tuesday’s game 5-1 and leads the series 1-0.

Padres vs. Dodgers: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Zach Davies vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw

Davies is ticketed to make what marks his second postseason start (he also appeared in one playoff game as a reliever with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018). His first postseason outing was Thursday when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits in a two-inning outing against the St. Louis Cardinals. In the regular season, the 27-year-old right-hander posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

  • Has held current LA bats to a minuscule .505 OPS in past meetings (130 PA).

Kershaw posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 10 regular-season starts.

  • Has had his share of postseason woes (4.43 ERA in 158 1/3 IP from 2008-19), but he registered 8 tremendous innings in his Oct. 1 Wild Card Series start against the Brewers (0 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk). Kershaw fanned a career-best 13 in that start.
  • Has limited current San Diego bats to a .624 OPS and .132 ISO (121 PA).

Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, in NJ, IN, CO and WV.  Bet now!

Padres vs. Dodgers: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Padres

  • C Jason Castro (jaw) questionable
  • RP Kirby Yates (elbow) out

Padres vs. Dodgers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers (-223) are favored by a margin that equates to a 69% win probability. In other words, if you can get yourself to, say 4% higher than that figure, that’s where value can be found despite the higher price tag. The answer for me is yes, I can get to that value mark without a stretch.

For the Padres (+200) — a club whose starting pitching logged a 3.46 ERA in the regular season — Davies is a pitcher who undercuts their normal game odds substantially. His 2.73 ERA was buoyed by a .249 BABIP, and several analytic ERA metrics peg him as a 4.00-to-4.25 guy.

Add in the platoon advantages — a righty starter is a plus for LA (.842 OPS vs. RHP); a lefty starter is a negative for San Diego (.761 OPS vs. LHP)  — and recent batting trends, and the Dodgers are lined up for an above average night and the Padres are not.

TAKE THE DODGERS (-223).

New to sports betting? A winning $223 bet on the Dodgers ML pays out a profit of $100.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

With the home team potentially batting one less time here, it’d be wise to steer clear of DODGERS -1.5 (-115) or hold out for a better price.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8.5 (-115) has some value at a -110 tag or an even 8 on the total.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Game 2 odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 2 sports betting odds and lines, with MLB betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Miami Marlins play the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS Wednesday in their neutral site of Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:08 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Braves MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Series: Atlanta leads 1-0.

Marlins vs. Braves: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Ian Anderson

Lopez: 6-4 with 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 57 1/3 IP over 11 starts.

  • Last start (Sept. 24): Win, 4-2, with 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K and 2 BB against Atlanta.
  • Career vs. Braves: 2-4 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 43 K and 16 BB in 40 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

Anderson: 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start (Oct. 1): Win, 5-0, with 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K and 2 BB against the Cincinnati Reds in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.
  • 2020 vs. Miami: 0-1, 1.04 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10 K, 4 BB, 8 2/3 IP, 2 starts.

Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, in NJ, IN, CO and WV.  Bet now!

Marlins vs. Braves: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Marlins

  • OF Starling Marte (finger) out

Marlins vs. Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Braves 7, Marlins 4

Money line (ML)

The Braves (-209) broke out for a six-run bottom of the seventh rally that the Marlins (+185) couldn’t answer in Atlanta’s 9-5 Game 1 victory. C Travis d’Arnaud and CF Ronald Acuña Jr. did the most damage. D’Arnaud went 3-3 with a three-run home run and an RBI double while Acuña led off the game with a solo shot, added a single which turned into a run.

The two most productive Braves hitters against Lopez are d’Arnaud and Acuña and the rest of Atlanta’s lineup is lethal. The Braves have the best lineup in the majors across several hitting categories. Plus, Marlins-Braves did this song and dance with this exact starting pitcher matchup Sept. 24, which the Marlins won, but Game 2 will go in Atlanta’s favor.

All this being said, I am still going to PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because it’s too expensive for an Atlanta outright win.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Braves (-209) to win would return a profit of just $4.78.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BRAVES -1.5 (-106) have owned the Marlins +1.5 (-115), going 36-13 since 2018.

Anderson is a third overall pick who has better stuff than Lopez and has been thrust into the playoff mix due to injuries to Atlanta’s starting rotation. This could be worrisome but you have to think the playoff jitters are lessened for the rookie considering the COVID-altered game conditions.

I expect Anderson to continue his strong play but even if he can’t the Braves have the hitters to outscore the Marlins. Also, not going to lie, the friendlier number for the run line helps too.

I “LIKE” BRAVES -1.5 (-106).

New to sports betting? A $106 wager on the Braves -1.5 (-106) returns a $100 profit it Atlanta beats Miami by two or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8.5 (-121) is the best play in Marlins-Braves Game 2. Atlanta has the second- and Miami the third-highest percentage of Overs in division games. These NL East games are slugfests. Three of the previous four Marlins-Braves contests went Over the projected total.

Despite all that mumbo jumbo, I said above about “the friendlier number,” the Over being more expensive is the reason I’m taking it. The market is hitting the Over in this game because the total should be in double digits given the matchup.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLDS Game 1 sports betting odds and lines, with MLB betting picks, tips and best bets.

The San Diego Padres start a National League Division Series against the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET at an MLB postseason neutral/bubble location of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Below, we analyze the Padres-Dodgers MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Season series: Dodgers won 6-4

Padres at Dodgers: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Mike Clevinger vs. RHP Walker Buehler

Clevinger: 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 41 2/3 IP over 8 starts with the Padres (4) and Cleveland Indians (4).

  • Last start (Sept. 23): No-decision with 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K and 0 BB in a 5-2 Padres loss against the Los Angeles Angels.
    • Pulled after one inning due to biceps tightness. Game 1 of the NLDS is his first start since being sidelined with an injury.
  • Clevinger has never faced the Dodgers.

Buehler: 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Career vs. Padres: 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 45 K and 8 BB over 33 IP spanning 5 starts.
    • The current Padres lineup vs. Buehler: .173/.218/.365 with 3 HR (52 batters faced).

Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, in NJ, IN, CO and WV.  Bet now!

Padres at Dodgers: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Padres

  • C Jason Castro (jaw) questionable
  • RP Kirby Yates (elbow) out
  • SP Dinelson Lamet (biceps) out

Padres at Dodgers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Padres 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers (-162) are going to be the most expensive team in the postseason from here on out. They’re the odds-on favorites to win the World Series. BetMGM will probably price me out of most LA action and that’s the case here.

It has been a solid season for Buehler, but he is giving up more home runs per nine than his previous two seasons (1.7 HR/9). Also, Buehler’s only outing this season against the Padres was a 5-4 Dodgers loss where he gave up three solo home runs as his only hits allowed over five innings.

The PADRES (+145) are getting their trade deadline splurge—SP Mike Clevinger—back in the nick of time. The injury to Castro means C Austin Nola is catching Clevinger in Game 1 and Clevinger has had much better results throwing to Nola over Castro.

He’s had two outings with both and throwing to Nola, Clevinger has two quality starts with 13 frames (six innings in his two starts with Castro), a 1.50 ERA (6.00 ERA with Castro) and opposing batters have a worse slash line in each category.

Nevermind Clevinger being their best starter, the Padres are a young team that has thrived off of energy and Clevinger’s return should be a boost of morale for an explosive San Diego team with the NL’s second-best record (37-23) heading into its first postseason since 2006.

Let’s splash on PADRES (+145) to steal Game 1. New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Padres (+145) pays out a profit of $72.50 if San Diego upsets Los Angeles.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GOTTA TAKE PADRES +1.5 (-143) as insurance for our money line wager. It’s as simple as that. There are no interesting trends to use and the season series run line record is tied 5-5 this year.

A $71.50 bet on the Padres +1.5 (-143) cashes a $50 profit if San Diego wins or loses by a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS ON THE TOTAL in Padres-Dodgers. If this goes bad for San Diego and Clevinger can’t recapture his pre-injury form, the Dodgers could hit the Over (8.5) themselves.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 1 sports betting odds and lines, with MLB betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves begin their best-of-five NL Division Series Tuesday at 2:08 p.m. (on FS1) with all the games being played at Houston’s Minute Maid Park. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Braves MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Season series: Braves won 6-4

Marlins vs. Braves: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. LHP Max Fried

Alcantara finished the regular season 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER) in 7 starts.

  • Last start (postseason debut): Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K at Chicago Cubs in Wild Card Series Game 1 last Wednesday – Marlins won 5-1
  • Last 4 starts (including playoffs): 2-1, 1.73 ERA (26 IP, 5 ER)
  • 2020 vs. Braves: 0 appearances
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-0, 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER) in 3 starts – Marlins went 2-1

Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA (56 IP, 14 ER) in 11 regular-season starts.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K vs. Cincinnati Reds in Wild Card Series Game 1 Wednesday – Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings
  • 2020 vs. Marlins: 0-0, 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER) in 2 starts – Braves went 2-0
  • Career vs. Marlins: 0-1, 5.13 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 15 ER) in 6 starts
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 3.38 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 5 ER) in 1 start and 8 relief appearances

Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, in NJ, IN, CO and WV.  Bet now!

Marlins vs. Braves: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Marlins

  • OF Starling Marte (finger) questionable

Marlins vs. Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Marlins 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (+175) are a great value play. While Fried is 7-0 for Atlanta (-200), Miami is 6-2 in Alcantara’s 8 starts this season, including the Wild Card win at Wrigley Field.

Back the MARLINS (+175) with a small-unit wager, which should be half your usual bet.

New to sports betting? Every $1 bet on the Marlins’ ML profits $1.75 if they pull off the upset. Every winning $2 bet on the Braves’ ML will profit $1.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS +1.5 (-129) are the way to go here, too. At 38-24, they’re tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best ATS record in the majors.

The Braves -1.5 (+105) are one of the worst ATS teams at 27-35. They’re also 22-26 ATS as a favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

The Braves took the season series 6-4, but the Marlins went 6-4 vs. the RL in those 10 games.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 8 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1.5 times your usual bet – thanks to several trends:

  • Alcantara’s last 4 starts finished Under.
  • The Marlins averaged 3.18 runs per game in their last 11 games. They scored just 5 runs twice in that stretch, but still went 6-5.
  • Toss out an 11-run outing by the New York Yankees and Marlins pitching allowed just 6 runs in their last 5 games with 2 shutouts.
  • In the Braves’ two Wild Card Series wins vs. the Reds, they took the opener 1-0 in 13 innings and claimed the clincher 5-0, scoring 4 runs in the bottom of the eighth.

My point is both offenses have been struggling, while the pitching has been on point. Those ingredients equal Under, Under, Under!

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Johnny’s 2020 MLB record 67-42-1
2020 MLB postseason 3-5
2020 overall record (all sports) 108-72-3
Strongest plays (all sports) 55-28-1

Follow @JohnnyParlay11 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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