Tag: MLB fantasy baseball

The MLB season, albeit significantly abbreviated, is a go for the 2020 season. While MLB bettors are breaking down where they are going to place their MLB futures bets, fantasy baseball participants are also scratching their heads on how to best approach the new season.

We sat down with fantasy baseball analyst Ray Murphy, co-GM of award-winning fantasy baseball service BaseballHQ.com, to pick his brain on some burning fantasy baseball questions entering the upcoming season. Because there are so many types of fantasy baseball leagues, we focused on standard 5×5, mixed-league scoring.

If there were ever a year we could all use some expert help, 2020 looks to be it and there is no better source than BaseballHQ, who has been in the fantasy baseball business for almost three decades.

SportsbookWire (SBW): What fantasy baseball strategy would you recommend to fantasy baseball participants to set themselves up best for a championship? 

Ray Murphy (RM): Everything depends on your league format, first and foremost. But generally speaking, the shortened season (and the abbreviated “summer camp” preceding it) is hurting pitcher values: fewer innings, fewer Wins (especially to start the season), more volatility in ratios.

You should compensate by pushing batters up your ranking lists. Focus on building a solid foundation on offense and then fill in your pitchers.

SBW: A shorter season means less time where you can sit on struggling players or evaluate trends in general. How do you plan to approach day-to-day, week-to-week roster management this season?

RM: Absolutely right.

“Our normal mantra in a full season is ‘practice excruciating patience’. That doesn’t apply this year.” — Ray Murphy, BaseballHQ.com

Every counting stat you can accumulate is critical. Every day a player sits on the bench while they are in your active lineup is a lost opportunity. You’ll need to have a very quick hook to make changes.

SBW: How do you see the shorter season impacting rookie players? 

RM: This is likely to vary widely team-by-team. Lots of top prospects are being added to the 60-man rosters, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to play… at least at the start. But once you get later in the season, expect to see teams (especially non-contenders) trying to create opportunities for those prospects to catch up on missed development time, as they turn eyes to 2021.

SBW: Who are some of your favorite fantasy baseball prospects that you’d still bank on?

RM: Mostly the same ones as we liked back in the offseason.

In the 2020 Baseball Forecaster, our top prospects for 2020 impact were Gavin Lux (LA), Nick Solak (TEX), Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert (CHW), Jo Adell (LAA). That said, the urgency of a short-season is a double-edged sword.

Take Robert for example: He has a ton of talent, but also some significant warts, namely a lot of swing-and-miss. If he starts out striking 50% of the time in the first couple of weeks of the season, the White Sox might well be less patient with him than they would have been in April.

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SBW: Which player(s) have fantasy baseball bust written all over them that you are avoiding at all costs?

RM: I don’t have too many absolutely avoid-at-all-costs guys… it’s all context/price dependent.

But I’ll give you a couple of categories of guys I’m avoiding:

1. You can’t take chances on injuries in a short season. Guys are going to get hurt (or sick), we’re all going to deal with that. I don’t need to start the season with guys who are already hurt. For instance, the news on Aaron Judge seems ominous: He’s been fighting a rib problem since the end of last year, and it sounds like he’s not at full strength yet. I’m out on him. And as guys inevitably get hurt during camp, I’m going to react the same way.

2. Young pitchers need to be evaluated closely: There may be pockets of value there as the year goes on, roles shift, some teams look to 2021. But for young pitchers who were hyped back in March (OAK’s Jesus Luzardo is a prime example), I’m devaluing them quite a bit, because I think their workload will still be heavily monitored, they could be used as relievers rather than starters, etc.

SBW: Lets flip that coin — Which fantasy baseball sleepers are among your favorites in 2020?

RM: There is a whole group of cheap/late-round power-hitting OFs that I liked a lot in the spring and still do: Randall Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez in TOR, Domingo Santana in CLE, Jesse Winker in CIN.

A more recent entry is Yoenis Cespedes, the additional time to recover from injury and the addition of the DH in the NL, make him a really nice target as the Mets DH.

SBW: We can’t let you out of here without picking your brain on the World Series… if you were spending $200 on MLB futures bets, which team(s) would you place your bet(s) on to win?

RM: If I’m throwing some darts at some of the longer odds:

• AL: I’ll spend $40 on Los Angeles Angels (+4000), $40 on Chicago White Sox (+2500), and $20 on Toronto Blue Jays (+10000)
• NL: Give me $50 on Cincinnati Reds (+2500), $30 on San Diego Padres (+5000), and $20 on Philadelphia Phillies (+2500)

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MLB betting odds via BetMGM. If you’re looking to place a wager on the MLB this season in CO, IN, NJ or WV, place your bets now at BetMGM.

Disclosure: BaseballHQ.com is owned by USA TODAY Sports Media Group, which also owns SportsbookWire.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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