The Minnesota Timberwolves (41-30) host the Milwaukee Bucks (44-26) Saturday at the Target Center for a 5 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Milwaukee has won 8 of its last 9 – 7-2 against the spread (ATS), which includes back-to-back road victories at the Utah Jazz Monday (117-111) and the Sacramento Kings Wednesday (135-126).
Minnesota has won 9 of its last 10 (9-1 ATS) and is on a 3-game winning streak with wins over the Miami Heat last Saturday (113-104), the San Antonio Spurs Monday (149-139) and the Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday (124-104).
The T-Wolves snapped a 6-game losing skid to the Bucks, Oct. 27, with a 113-108 in Milwaukee as 6-point road underdogs. The Bucks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the T-Wolves.
Bucks at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Bucks -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Timberwolves +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Against the spread: Bucks -2.5 (-120) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 244.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Bucks at Timberwolves key injuries
Bucks
- SG Pat Connaughton (finger) out
Timberwolves
- SF Anthony Edwards (knee) probable
- PF Jarred Vanderbilt (quad) questionable
[tipico]
Bucks at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 129, Timberwolves 119
Money line
LEAN to the BUCKS (-150) because I prefer laying the points and paying less juice, but there’s an argument for Milwaukee’s ML being the sharper play.
Either way, the Bucks are the right side because they have a couple of edges in rebounding and getting to the charity stripe.
For instance, Milwaukee has a plus-2.3 rebound-per-game differential whereas Minnesota has a minus-1.2 rebound-per-game differential.
Also, the Bucks are eighth in non-garbage time offensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr) and the T-Wolves are dead-last in non-garbage time defensive FTr, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Furthermore, Milwaukee was without PG Jrue Holiday in the Bucks-Timberwolves meeting Minnesota won earlier this season. The Bucks score 9.4 more points per 100 possessions when Holiday is on the floor, per CTG.
Again, it’s only a LEAN to the BUCKS (-150) since I’m confident enough in Milwaukee to lay the points.
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Against the spread
BET the BUCKS -2.5 (-120) for 1 unit because they have a higher differential in three of the “four factors”, and Milwaukee should be motivated by its loss to the Timberwolves +2.5 (-105) in October.
Plus I’m okay fading Minnesota here because several of its recent wins were against chumps.
The T-Wolves are 7-1 overall in their last eight games. But, four of those wins came against tanking teams — two versus the Portland Trail Blazers and two versus the Oklahoma City Thunder — and the other two victories were against the slumping Lakers and Spurs.
The BUCKS LAYING POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS because this is a sharp total.
I lean to the Over 244.5 (-108) because the Bucks should get a ton of easy points on free throws, and both teams play at a fast pace and chuck a bunch of 3-pointers.
However, Milwaukee’s rebounding and transition defense could cause troubles for Minnesota’s offense. Also, just one bad shooting quarter puts any Over wager in peril.
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