The Golden State Warriors (45-22) host the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks (42-25) Saturday. Tip-off at Chase Center is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Milwaukee enters on a 6-game winning streak — 5-1 against the spread (ATS) — with the latest being a 124-115 victory over the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday, covering as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Golden State has won back-to-back games over the Los Angeles Clippers and at the Denver Nuggets following a 5-game losing skid from Feb. 27 to March 7. The Warriors are 3-5 straight up (SU) and 4-4 ATS after the All-Star Game.
The Bucks pummeled the Warriors 118-99 in Milwaukee Jan. 13 as 1-point home underdogs. PF Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a 30-11-12 triple-double on 11-for-17 shooting while PG Steph Curry and SG Klay Thompson scored a combined 23 points on 7-for-22 shooting.
Bucks at Warriors odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Bucks -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Warriors +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread: Bucks -1.5 (-120) | Warriors +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 237.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Bucks at Warriors key injuries
Bucks
- SG Pat Connaughton (finger) out
- C Brook Lopez (back) out
Warriors
- PF Draymond Green (back) out
- SG Gary Payton (knee) out
- PF Otto Porter Jr. (illness) out
[tipico]
Bucks at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 121, Warriors 114
Money line
GIMME the BUCKS (-130) for 1.25 units because the Warriors aren’t the same team without Draymond who’s been sidelined with an injury since Jan. 11.
Golden State is 3-7 SU versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a minus-7.2 adjusted net rating (ranked 17th) and a minus-6.8 ATS margin (ranked 28th) over that span, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Draymond missed the first Bucks-Warriors meeting this season and Milwaukee had 15 more fastbreak points and 12 more paint points than Golden State.
The Bucks are also starting to find their groove entering the final stretch of the regular season.
Milwaukee is third in adjusted net rating (plus-9.6) and ninth in ATS margin (plus-2.4) since the All-Star break, per CTG. On the other hand, Golden State is 20th in adjusted net rating (minus-2.4) and 26th in ATS margin (minus-4.4).
I’d BET the BUCKS (-130) all the way up to -145 before laying up to 4 points with Milwaukee.
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Against the spread
PASS because Milwaukee’s ML is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Bucks -1.5 (-120). I’m confident enough in Milwaukee to spend a little more for an outright victory and don’t want to sweat a cover.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 237.5 (-112) because most of the public will be betting the Over based on obvious reasons but “fading the obvious” is typically where you find value in sports betting.
However, since I don’t have any basketball logic behind my analysis, I wouldn’t bet the Under very hard.
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