The Detroit Pistons (23-57) host the Milwaukee Bucks (50-30) Friday at Little Caesars Arena for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Pistons odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
This is the second of back-to-back games for Milwaukee who beat the Boston Celtics 127-121 Thursday but failed to cover as an 8-point home favorite. The Bucks are 4-3 straight up (SU) but just 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks.
Detroit had its three-game win streak snapped Wednesday at home in a 131-113 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. The Pistons are 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS over the last 14 days.
The Pistons ended a 12-game losing skid to the Bucks with a 115-106 win as 7-point road underdogs in their last meeting Jan. 3. Detroit is 2-1 ATS versus the Bucks this season.
Bucks at Pistons odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Bucks -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Pistons +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread: Bucks -5.5 (-105) | Pistons +5.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Bucks at Pistons key injuries
Bucks (not officially submitted)
- SG Grayson Allen (hip) questionable
Pistons
- PF Marvin Bagley III (hip) out
- PG Cory Joseph (back) questionable
- PF Jerami Grant (calf) out
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Bucks at Pistons odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pistons 113, Bucks 110
Money line
Slight LEAN to the PISTONS (+175), if at all, because based on the line movements in both the ML and ATS markets that the Bucks may not go full tilt for this game.
Nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Bucks but they’ve gone from a -275 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number according to pregame.com.
This reverse line movement suggests that perhaps the oddsmakers have a read on who will be in Milwaukee’s starting 5 even though no official injury report has been released at the time of writing.
The Bucks could still get the 2-seed but I’m not sure if that’ll be to their advantage. The Brooklyn Nets, with F Kevin Durant and G Kyrie Irving, are in the play-in tourney and are favored to be the 7-seed.
While Milwaukee definitely isn’t ducking Brooklyn, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucks use their final two games of the regular season to rest their Big 3, on the second half of this back-to-back set.
However, since all this is speculation, my favorite wager is Detroit’s spread and only LEAN PISTONS (+175).
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the PISTONS +5.5 (-120) instead of or heavier than their ML because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Detroit. More money is on the Pistons while slightly more bets have been placed on the Bucks.
Since the wiseguys wager put up more dough than the average Joe, it can be profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
This line also feels suspicious in the first place. Milwaukee has been favored by double digits in six of its last seven meetings with Detroit.
The Bucks were only -4.5 earlier this season versus the Pistons but Milwaukee was without SF Khris Middleton and PG Jrue Holiday.
This is a better spot for Detroit who is 10-5 ATS as a 5-to-7-point underdog, 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games versus teams with a winning record and 20-13-1 ATS as home underdogs with a plus-2.1 ATS margin. Milwaukee is 31-32 ATS as favorites and just 4-9 ATS on zero rest days with a minus-4.7 ATS margin.
The PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS is by far my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 227.5 (-108) because Milwaukee is 5-8 O/U in the second of a back-to-back, Detroit is 14-19-1 O/U as a home underdog, the Under has cashed in four straight Bucks-Pistons meetings and a majority of the action is betting the Over so we have a “fade the market” angle.
That said, I prefer Detroit’s spread more than the total hence the LEAN UNDER 227.5 (-108).
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