Tag: Milwaukee Bucks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Miami Heat (14-9) visit the “Cream City” Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Milwaukee Bucks (14-9) at the Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Miami is 3-3 overall and 2-4 ATS over its past six games with the latest being a 113-104 road win over the Indiana Pacers Friday. The Heat are 14-9 ATS and 14-9 O/U with the fifth-best net rating.

Milwaukee had its eight-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 97-93 road loss to the Toronto Raptors in a game Giannis Antetokounmpo missed. The Bucks are 10-13 ATS and 8-15 O/U with the seventh-best net rating.

Milwaukee swept Miami in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season (4-0 ATS) and won two of three regular-season meetings. However, the Heat blasted the Bucks 137-95 in their first meeting this season Oct. 21.

Heat at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Bucks -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-112) | Bucks -6.5 (-108)
• Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

• SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
• C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

Bucks

• SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) doubtful
• PG George Hill (knee) probable

Heat at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 116, Heat 112

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Heat (+220) because Miami plus the points is the side I’m on. Plus I think the Heat are too well-coached to be getting more than +200 against a team missing its best player.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is having an MVP-caliber season thus far and we’ve seen how mediocre the Bucks can be when they are without one of their Big 3.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT +6.5 (-112) based on the rationale above, but I’d wait to get an official announcement on Giannis’s game status before placing a wager.

If Giannis plays, the Bucks will probably smack the Heat. If Giannis doesn’t play then we’ll still get points with the Heat.

Furthermore, Giannis grades in the 99th percentile of on/off court efficiency differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

On top of that, Milwaukee is 0-2 overall without Giannis in the lineup and 3-5 overall when Khris Middleton was sidelined. The point is, the Bucks are far less profitable if one of these guys isn’t in the lineup.

For what it’s worth, there’s also a “fade the market” angle to play here since a vast majority of bettors are backing Milwaukee despite the probable absence of Giannis.

Also, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the league, which is a major reason the Heat are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.

Granted, the Heat are without their two best players but there’s just more value in the road underdog in this spot.

“LEAN” the HEAT +6.5 (-115) pending Giannis’s final game status.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 211.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my favorite play in this contest because of how these teams match up. For instance, these Heat-Bucks games in recent seasons have been 3-point shootouts.

Since the beginning of 2019, Miami has an average 3-point attempt rate of 45.6% and Milwaukee has a 43.4% average 3-point attempt rate in their 16 head-to-head meetings, which includes the postseason. To put that into perspective, those rates would be in top-5 across the NBA this year.

Moreover, I think the Heat picks up the pace and tries to turn this game into a 3-point shootout to compensate for Butler and Adebayo’s absence. Miami knows it’ll be significantly outgunned and the Heat’s best chance to win this game is to get hot from behind the arc.

Because Milwaukee is one of the fastest-paced, highest 3-point shooting teams in the Association, I think the Bucks will engage in a high-octane game.

Lastly, the market is hammering the Under in this game presumably because Giannis will most likely be out. But, you could make the argument Giannis’ absence affects Milwaukee’s defense as much as its offense.

Plus roughly 80% of the action is on the Over according to both the Yahoo! Sports app and Pregame.com. Eight out of 10 bettors don’t beat the House. And all the pro-Over money has steamed the Heat-Bucks total down four points from the opener. I’ll fade the market and all that line movement.

BET THE OVER 211.5 (-115).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]