The Milwaukee Bucks hope to even the 2021 NBA Finals when they host the Phoenix Suns Wednesday for Game 4 at Fiserv Forum before heading back to the Valley of the Sun for Game 5. Below, we make our NBA picks and predictions based on the updated NBA Finals line between the Bucks and Suns.
Milwaukee beat the brakes off Phoenix in Game 3, winning 120-100 to get back into the series. Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo has resoundingly answered all questions about his health and effectiveness entering the NBA Finals.
Giannis joined Shaquille O’Neal Sunday as the only players in NBA Finals history with back-to-back 40-point, 10-rebound performances. Antetokounmpo—in true Shaq form—was a bull in a china shop against Phoenix’s interior defense.
The “Greek Freak” bullied the Suns for 28 points in the paint and 12 second-chance points in Game 3. Phoenix had only 2 second-chance points as a team, and Antetokounmpo drew 12 fouls.
2021 NBA Finals best bet: Bucks (+225) vs. Suns
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Admittedly, this is a flip of my pre-series prediction of the Suns (-190) to win the NBA Finals but stubbornness in sports betting will lead to bankruptcy and there were legitimate questions regarding Giannis’ readiness.
Now that we’ve seen who the best player on the floor is (Giannis) and how he has rebounded from a knee injury that forced him out of the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, it’s time to adjust.
Almost every sports TV personality has yet to do this and the NBA Finals commentary after Game 3 was couched with “Yeah, but the Suns should still win this series”.
Heck, even a slight majority of the money line bets placed for Game 4 are on Phoneix to win outright, according to Pregame.com, so the market and media are behind the Suns.
However, if you’re a “contrarian bettor” like me you’re more than happy going against the market and there’s just too much value in Milwaukee’s adjusted NBA Finals price, especially since the Bucks are -190 favorites on the Game 4 money line to tie the series.
On paper, this series is a lot closer than you’d think since each game thus far has been decided by double digits, but these teams are tied in the “four factors” and Phoenix is only plus-1 in offensive rating and the scoring margin.
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The two deciding factors for me in taking the Bucks to win the NBA Finals at this point is their ability to dominate the boards and Milwaukee’s backcourt being able to neutralize Phoenix’s major edge, which is its backcourt offense.
The Bucks have a plus-6 per game rebounding differential. Even though Suns C Deandre Ayton has shown to be a building-block player for Phoenix, Milwaukee has a legit 7-footer in Brook Lopez to somewhat offset Ayton’s effectiveness.
Furthermore, Phoenix’s only other big—Dario Saric—was injured in Game 1 and will miss the remainder of the playoffs due to a torn ACL. This leaves Ayton to handle all the big-man responsibility for the Suns.
The Suns’ lack of size didn’t hurt them during the regular season, as they were second in the West despite having the 24th-ranked defensive field-goal percentage vs. attempts at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Expect it to be a bigger factor now.
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Finally, Suns PG Chris Paul has to shoulder too much of the load for the and SG Devin Booker‘s efficiency, or lack thereof is enough to split the difference between two evenly matched teams.
Booker is putting up 22.7 points per game in the NBA Finals but on just 38.3% field-goal shooting (33.3% from 3-point range). His biggest strength—getting to the foul line—should be mitigated as this series continues because Milwaukee had the best defensive FT/FGA rate in the Association in the regular season.
Obviously, I’m not stoked to be flip-flopping mid-series but when you see it, you see it and this is the year Giannis and his Bucks breakthrough to win the NBA Finals.
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