Yet another season in which the Raiders leading receiver was the tight end. Part of that is Jon Gruden likes tight ends and Derek Carr likes to check down. Hell, last season the second leading receiver was running back Jalen Richard.
The other part of that has been the overall lack of talent at receiver since Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper had been sent away. Gruden and new GM Mike Mayock thought they had fixed the problem with the acquisition of Antonio Brown via trade and the additions of Tyrell Williams, JJ Nelson, and Ryan Grant. But Brown went off the deep end and the other three weren’t what the team hoped they would be.
Williams at least has the injury excuse, but even if he had been healthy, it still leaves the Raiders without a key element to the receiving corps – the ability to take the top off the defense.
“We don’t have enough outside speed,” Mayock said in an interview with the Las Vegas Review-Journal at last week’s Senior Bowl.“People started to load up on Josh [Jacobs] and Darren [Waller]. Our offensive line is a big, strong, tough group that we’re happy with. But let’s be honest. If we’re going to take it to another level, that position has to get better.”
Naturally, there are two places teams go about adding talent in the offseason – free agency and the draft. Most will tell you the draft is always the best option for long term success. That’s Mayock’s wheelhouse. He made his name as a draft analyst with the NFL Network for 15 years. He has his thoughts about this draft as well as drafting receivers high.
“It’s early, but I certainly think there’s a lot of wideouts in this draft,” Mayock continued. “It’s a deep wide receiver draft. Now, you have to be careful, especially the higher you go. Do yourself a favor and go look at (the history of the draft) and look at first-round wide receivers over the last 10 years. It’s sobering. And I think there’s some reasons why college wide receivers can struggle coming into the NFL. So I think you have to be careful. Everybody thinks if you draft a wide receiver in the first round it’s immediate production. It doesn’t necessarily mean that. Take a look at the numbers. So I think you have to be aware of what you’re facing and I think you have to be smart with what you’re doing.
Mayock’s out here handing out homework. Don’t worry, I’ll do it for you.
There have been 34 players selected in the first round over the past ten years. Of those, eight have gone on to be Pro Bowlers at their position – AJ Green (7), Julio Jones (7), DeAndre Hopkins (4), Demaryius Thomas (4), Amari Cooper (3), Mike Evans (3), Odell Beckham Jr (3), and Dez Bryant (3). That’s not great odds.
Worst still is that no receiver drafting in the first round the past three years has made the Pro Bowl. A total of 11 players. The most recently drafted first round receiver to make a Pro Bowl? Amari Cooper who was drafted 4th overall by the Raiders in 2015 and this year headed to his fourth Pro Bowl, second as a member of the Cowboys.
On the other end of that spectrum are the duds. Like Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Blackmon, AJ Jenkins, Jonathan Baldwin, John Ross, Corey Coleman, and Josh Doctson. That’s 11 players. Though Patterson is a special case because he has made three Pro Bowls as a return specialist.
But that’s 19 players out of 34, leaving a bunch of guys who are neither elite nor busts. Sure, if you’re taking a player at 12 or 19 overall, where the Raiders are picking the first round, you expect to get an elite level player.
But right now even one of those mid-level, solid starting receivers would be a significant upgrade. And if Mayock is worth his salt, and last year’s draft showed signs he is, he should be able to pick the right first-round receiver.
Keep in mind, even with a deep receiver class, if the Raiders don’t get one in the first round, they may have to wait until the third round to revisit it. They don’t currently have a second round pick. It was sent to Chicago in the Khalil Mack trade.
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