The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-6) visit the Troy Trojans (4-3) in a rare non-conference rematch Saturday. The 3:30 p.m. ET kick at Veterans Memorial Stadium will mark the second meeting between the Raiders and Trojans in this unique 2020 season. Troy won at MTSU (47-14) Sept. 19. Below, we analyze the Middle Tennessee-Troy college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Middle Tennessee at Troy: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Middle Tennessee +315 (bet $100 to win $315) | Troy -417 (bet $417 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Middle Tennessee +11.5 (-110) | Troy -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 59.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Middle Tennessee at Troy: Three things to know
- Middle Tennessee heads into Saturday’s road game on the heels of a 42-14 loss at Marshall last Saturday. That game marked MTSU’s first action since Oct. 24 (40-34 overtime win at Rice). At Marshall, the Blue Raiders fumbled three times (losing all three) and were outgained 520 yards to 303.
- Troy rambled for 240 rushing yards and three ground scores in its Sept. 19 win over MTSU. That marks a season-high for a Trojans offense which has been very much a pass-first group since (62-38 pass-run mix on the season). Starting QB Gunnar Watson (ribs) is questionable for Saturday’s game. Watson has missed Troy’s last two games, and backup QB Jacob Free has been spotty with a 60% pass completion rate and 4 touchdowns against 4 interceptions in directing the Trojans’ aerial game.
- The Raiders are tied for 118th in the nation with 16 giveaways on the season. MTSU has lost six fumbles — including three last week — while throwing 10 interceptions. Middle Tennessee quarterbacks combined to throw three interceptions in the Sept. 19 game against Troy.
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Middle Tennessee at Troy: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Troy 34, Middle Tennessee 21
Money line (ML)
The -417 tag on Troy carries an implied winning percentage of 80.65%. That offers some value on a Trojans team which has the advantage in just about every phase of the game in this matchup. BACK TROY (-417).
Against the spread (ATS)
Figure on a shaky Middle Tennessee front seven making for a big Troy advantage in this one. Three October home games — vs. Texas State (37-17 win), Eastern Kentucky (31-29 win), and Georgia State (36-34 loss) — look like unflattering comps on the surface.
Drilling down shows a Trojans team which didn’t score or defend as well as it played on 85% of plays from scrimmage. With less of a lean than the ML play above: BACK TROY -11.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is 8-1 in the last nine games between the Raiders and Trojans. The Under is also 7-1-1 in Troy’s last nine games overall; and that’s the fairly healthy lean in this one.
Troy does well against the run and pass, and the Trojans are solid in limiting explosive plays. The MTSU defense is subpar but still a better one than the national points-per-game ranking (115th) would indicate. TAKE THE UNDER 59.5 (-110).
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