The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) and San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) meet Saturday for the Hawaii Bowl. Kickoff at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu will be at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Middle Tennessee went 3-0 (1-1-1 against the spread (ATS)) down the stretch to earn a bowl berth. A pass-heavy Blue Raiders offense found some rushing success over those 3 final games but still heads into the Hawaii Bowl ranked 31st in passing yards (267.2 per game) and 100th in rushing (123.9).
San Diego State is 5-2 (4-3 ATS) since Oct. 1. The Aztec offense swings the other way, toward a run-first-pass-when-needed framework. However, it’s the SDSU defense that stands out. The Aztecs have yielded just 335.4 yards per game (27th) and 20.2 points per game (20th).
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Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Middle Tennessee +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | San Diego State -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Middle Tennessee +6.5 (-107) | San Diego State -6.5 (-113)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -111 | U: -109)
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Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 31, Middle Tennessee 24
Moneyline
San Diego State is the clear and worthy favorite here. Coach Brady Hoke and company went to Hawaii and won last season and also won their bowl game last December (Frisco Bowl vs. UTSA).
However, the Aztecs are not available at a budget price. PASS.
Against the spread
Look for Middle Tennessee to have trouble blocking a solid SDSU rush. The Aztecs’ offense became more balanced and capable late in the season.
This line has steamed towards the Aztecs since it opened. Any leverage is likely out of reach although an SDSU play at -5.5 would be worth some partial-unit action if the spread starts to swing back the other way. If not, PASS.
Over/Under
The Over is 7-0 in the Blue Raiders’ last 7 games following a straight-up win, and it is 3-1 across SDSU’s last 4 games away from home.
The San Diego State defense is somewhat more gettable through the air. The Raiders Air Raid offense should be able to help spiral this one forth in the warm weather on the Big Island. A little bit of turnover-short field leverage can also be expected.
BACK THE OVER 48.5 (-111).
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