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No. 24 Michigan State hosts the No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes Tuesday night (7:00 ESPN 2) in a matchup that will eliminate the loser from Big Ten contention. The Hawkeyes will roll into East Lansing on the back of Big Ten Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza. The junior big man is averaging a robust 23.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Iowa has one of the best offenses in college basketball and Michigan State is going to have their work cut out for them if they want to get a victory tonight.
Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.
Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.
Overview
Michigan State: 18-9 overall, 10-6 Big Ten
-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 18 in adjusted offense
-No. 14 in adjusted defense
-No. 98 in adjusted tempo
Iowa: 19-8 overall, 10-6 Big Ten
-No. 22 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 5 in adjusted offense
-No. 92 in adjusted defense
-No. 69 in adjusted tempo
As you can see, Iowa likes scoring points. Really, every college basketball likes scoring points, but Iowa *really* likes scoring points. They play at a fast pace on offense and they get a ton of shots up. You’ll soon see that they don’t really do any one thing as a team at an elite level, bu they are incredibly balanced on offense. They need to be, because woof, it is not pretty on defense for the Hawkeyes. Fran McCaffery’s squad comes into this game having won two straight and part of the logjam tie for second place in the Big Ten. The road has now been kind to Iowa in conference play; they’re 2-6 on the road and that includes a loss at Nebraska. As mentioned, Luka Garza is going to win Big Ten Player of the Year and it’ll be deserved. He’s been an efficient and productive machine this year and one of the best players in the country. Behind him Joe Wieskamp is an excellent wing player and then things thin out for the Hawkeyes. Freshman shooting guard CJ Fredrick is shooting 47% from three this year, but has been out with an injury the last few games. His status for this one is certainly up in the air. The Hawkeyes are a very good team, but have certainly had their struggles against MSU in the past.
Let’s dive into some specifics.
A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 69 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 132 in turnover %, No. 38 in Oreb%, No. 211 in free throw rate
Iowa defense four factors: No. 172 eFG% against, No. 236 in turnover %, No. 215 in Oreb%, No. 42 in FTR
Michigan State’s turnover numbers have been all over the place this season. Believe it or not, there was a good chunk of time earlier this year when they were a pretty good team at protecting the ball. That has certainly gone to hell and it seems like it doesn’t matter who the opponent is. Nebraska was not a team that forced turnovers, yet MSU turned it over 20+ times against them. Iowa is the same way. Can MSU protect the ball better? The Spartans should have a great advantage on the glass as they generally do. MSU’s shooting numbers are coming around lately, which is encouraging given the whole turnovers thing. If they’re gonna waste a bunch of possessions on turnovers, they better make up for it with shot making. Free throws remain an issue as nobody is getting to the line consistently for MSU. Iowa doesn’t foul much so I’d be surprised if MSU got to the line a bunch in this one.
When Iowa has the ball
Iowa offensive four factors: No. 68 in eFG%, No. 58 in turnover %, No. 58 in Oreb%, No. 116 in FTR
Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 2 in eFG% against, No. 323 in turnover %, No. 63 in Oreb% against, No. 92 in FTR
This is going to be a very interesting matchup. Michigan State is forcing missed shots better than anybody in the country over the last month and they’ve jumped all the way to No. 2 in eFG% against. Luka Garza is going to get a bunch of points and a bunch of rebounds. The key is can MSU make him inefficient on his way to his totals. Something like 20 points on 21 shots is right in line with what it takes to beat Iowa. Rebounding on this end of the floor is going to be huge. If Iowa is struggling to make shots, they’re going to need to win on the glass and while MSU has generally been a pretty good defensive rebounding team, they’ve been prone to games where they just don’t show up on the glass. They can’t afford one of those against Iowa. The path for MSU is the same as it always is; force tough, contested shots and grab the rebound. It’s as simple as that.
Other key numbers
Michigan State ranks No. 7 in both 2P% and 3P% against. They’re technically 2nd in eFG% against, but there really might not be a team in college basketball that is harder to make shots on right now than MSU.
Iowa has two good shooters from three in the absence of Fredrick. Garza shoots 38% on decent volume and Wieskamp shoots 37% on solid volume. Outside of those two, Iowa really struggles to shoot from deep. The thing is, those two take most of the shots.
As a team the Hawkeyes rank 81st in three-point percentage and are middle of the pack in terms of three point volume.
While he is tremendous at nearly everything and is nationally ranked in a ton of categories, Luka Garza struggles from the free throw line. After shooting 80% from the stripe last year, Garza has regressed back down to a career-low 65%. We know he can shoot the ball well from pretty much anywhere, so I’m guessing it’s a bit of a confidence/mental thing with him at the free throw line.
Conclusion
Iowa is a really good team with an elite offense. They are locked into the NCAA tournament and still have an outside shot at the Big Ten regular season title. The CJ Fredrick injury looms large here as the dynamic of the Iowa offense totally changes without his elite shooting. Luka Garza is going to get his, but MSU is going to have to do a great job on secondary scorers, most importantly Joe Wieskamp. If MSU continues to force tough shots and does a good job on the defensive glass, they should be fine. Iowa isn’t really built to win a slugfest and MSU is a much more balanced team and can play a multitude of styles. Iowa is going to have to take a few extra threes in this one and shoot it well from deep. On defense they’ll need to try and make sure MSU’s turnover struggles continue. KenPom projects this game as a 79-73 win for MSU, a 69% chance of victory.
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