The Los Angeles Angels (1-3) host the Miami Marlins (1-2) Monday for the opener of their two-game interleague miniseries. First pitch from Angel Stadium is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Angels dropped their first series to the AL West rival Houston Astros by a combined score of 20-10. L.A.’s only win was SP Noah Syndergaard‘s debut for the Angels. Syndergaard got the win with 5 1/3 IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
Miami lost the rubber match with the defending NL West champion San Francisco Giants 3-2 Sunday to drop its first series. The Marlins were outscored by the Giants 10-9 and all three meetings were 1-run games.
Marlins at Angels: Projected starters
Miami RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. L.A. RHP Michael Lorenzen
Hernandez was 1-3 in 2021 with a 4.18 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 across 11 starts last season.
- Hernandez has never pitched against the Angels
Lorenzen was 1-2 last season with a 5.59 ERA in 2021 (29 IP, 18 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 27 relief appearances for the Cincinnati Reds.
- 2021 vs. Marlins: 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 3 2/3 IP with 2 H, 1 BB and 2 K in three games.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 2.48 FIP with a .128 batting average (BA), .150 wOBA, .235 expected slugging percentage, 17.1 K% and 84.2 mph exit velocity in 41 plate appearances.
Marlins at Angels odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:57 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Angels -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Marlins at Angels prediction and picks
Prediction
Angels 7, Marlins 4
Money line
BET the ANGELS (-140) because Hernandez is a bottom of the rotation starter and L.A.’s bullpen is sneaky good. Hernandez’s meatball rate was 1.4% higher than the MLB average and his barrel rate is 2.3% higher, per Statcast.
Angels 3B Anthony Rendon also mashed against Hernandez while playing in the NL East for the Washington Nationals. He has 2 home runs and a double in 10 PA versus Hernandez.
Rendon performing to his contract is major for L.A.’s lineup this season and his dominance over Hernandez means Angels’ 3-hole hitter 1B Jared Walsh should get some meatballs.
The ANGELS (-140) is my favorite wager in this game.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I don’t like L.A. enough to sprinkle on the Angels -1.5 (+140) because their lineup has been more sizzle than steak since the beginning of last season and hasn’t lived up to its potential.
Furthermore, Miami has one of the better bullpens in baseball so I wouldn’t rule out the Marlins relievers keeping this one close if Hernandez doesn’t get nuked.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (-102) because both starters are question marks, the weather forecast is predicting nearly 12 mph blowing out to right-centerfield and the presumed sharp side of the market is on the Over.
More than 70% of the cash is on the Over while nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Under according to pregame.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public.
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