The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets meet for Game 5 of the NBA Finals Monday at Ball Arena. The Nuggets lead the series 3-1. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we break down FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA Finals Game 5 prop bet odds and lines, and tab the Heat vs. Nuggets prop bets to make among SportsbookWire’s expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Nuggets are on the verge of bringing their first NBA championship title to the Mile High City with the first of 3 chances to secure the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.
The Nuggets picked up a 108-95 victory in Miami to push the Heat to the brink of elimination Friday. Denver was 49.4% (39-of-79) from the field, while Miami shot 44.9% (35-of-78). Denver also burned it up from beyond the arc, connecting at a 50.0% clip (14-of-28), while Miami was a cooler 32.0% (8-of-25).
If the Heat did anything well in Game 4 it was at the free-throw line, going 85.0% (17-of-20), while the Nuggets were just 76.2% (16-of-21). Miami also outrebounded Denver by a 37-to-34 margin, including 8 offensive boards.
The Nuggets posted 11 steals to just 2 for the Heat, while blocking 7 shots to just 3 for the Heat. The Heat were also mistake-prone, posting 15 total turnovers to just 8 for the Nuggets.
Denver C Nikola Jokic had another strong game, going for 23 points and 12 rebounds with 3 blocked shots, while F Aaron Gordon dropped a game-high 27 points with 7 boards and 6 dimes. Both Gordon and Jokic were good for 3 triples, too.
Miami F Jimmy Butler did his best to will his team to a win, posting a team-high 25 points with 7 assists and 7 rebounds, while C Bam Adebayo was good for 20 points and 11 rebounds for the team’s only double-double.
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Game 5: Best Heat at Nuggets prop bet picks
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:10 a.m. ET.
0 Dunks in the 1st Quarter 12:00-9:00 (-162)
It seems like a relatively high price to pay for this particular prop, but it’s well worth the money.
We have had just 5 total dunks in the 1st Quarter of this series, with a total of just 1 in the previous 3 games. Gordon had a dunk with 9:27 left in 1st Quarter of Game 1, and he had another with 7:11 to go in the 1st Quarter of Game 2. Hold your breath in the first 3 minutes when Gordon has the ball, and hope Miami can clog up the paint.
We have had a total of just 32 dunks in the entire series, and 4 of the 5 total dunks in the 1st Quarter came in Game 1. In the 2nd Quarter, we have had 11 dunks, the 3rd Quarter has been the most prolific with 13, and the 4th Quarter has had just 3 dunks and 1 missed attempt by Adebayo in Game 3.
Heat SF Jimmy Butler Points: UNDER 27.5 (-125)
Jimmy Buckets had been playing out of his mind, almost single-handedly getting the Heat out of jams all throughout the playoffs. The Nuggets have done a pretty decent holding him in check as he’s shooting 40.8% from the field, including 39.3% (13-of-33) over the first 2 games in Denver.
At Ball Arena, Butler is averaging just 17.0 points per game (PPG) with a total of 3 triples in 2 games in this series. Look for the Nuggets to keep him at bay, for the most part, yet again in Game 5.
Heat C Bam Adebayo Rebounds: OVER 10.5 (-120)
Adebayo averaged 9.2 rebounds per game (RPG) during the regular season, but he has exceeded those numbers in this series by miles.
Adebayo pulled down 13 boards in Game 1 in Denver while going for 9 in Game 2. He managed 17 rebounds in Game 3 and snagged 11 more in Game 4. He is averaging 12.5 RPG in 4 games in this series, and if the rebound prop was 10.5 in each game, he would have cashed Over in 3 out of 4 outings.
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Nuggets F Aaron Gordon Player Combo: OVER 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Gordon crushed it in Game 4, going for 27 points to outscore everybody. That’s probably not going to happen again. In fact, it was his best scoring performance since dropping 37 on the Orlando Magic in a regular-season game back on Feb. 9.
However, hitting a combined total of points, rebounds and assists Over 23.5 seems too good to pass up.
Gordon is averaging 16.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 3.5 APG in the 4 games of this season, and that’s good for 27.5 combined, which would be well Over the threshold for this prop. He has at least 7 boards in the past 3 games, and 5.5 APG in the past 2 games. As long as he doesn’t get into foul trouble, I like this combo prop a lot.
Miami Heat 1st Quarter Line: +3.5 (-122)
The Heat were outscored by 9 points in the 1st Quarter in Game 1 in Denver, but they were leading 26-23 after 12 minutes in Game 2. In Game 3, the Heat was tied 24-24, and in Game 4 Miami was up 21-20 before being outscored in Quarters 2 and 3.
Miami has found a way to hang tough in the early portion of the game before strong showings in the middle of the game by Denver.
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