The Miami Heat (25-15) head to the Big Peach Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Atlanta Hawks (17-22) at State Farm Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
This is the sixth and final game of Miami’s road trip; it’s 3-2 straight-up (SU) and 4-1 ATS through the first five games. The Heat have won their last two games against the Phoenix Suns Jan. 5 and the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday.
Miami has the sixth-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-7.8 points per 100 possessions and the fifth-best spread differential at a plus-6.7 ATS margin over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Atlanta just wrapped up its own six-game road trip, finishing 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS and 2-4 O/U. The Hawks have the fourth-worst non-garbage time net rating at minus-8.6 points per 100 possessions and the second-worst spread differential at a minus-8.0 ATS margin in the last 14 days (per CTG).
Heat at Hawks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Hawks -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +3.5 (-107) | Hawks -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Hawks key injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) out
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
- C Dewayne Dedmon (knee) questionable
Hawks
- C Clint Capela (ankle) doubtful
- SF De’Andre Hunter (wrist) questionable
- SG Cam Reddish (ankle) questionable
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Heat at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 117, Hawks 113
Money line
SPRINKLE on the HEAT (+135) with the plan of betting more on Miami’s spread because the Hawks struggle against good teams and don’t sleep on the importance of Capela’s possible absence.
Miami and Atlanta’s seasons are trending in opposite directions. The Heat are stacking wins and ranked third in the East despite missing several key contributors throughout the season.
On the other hand, the Hawks are 12th in the East and there are rumors PF John Collins is unhappy with his role in Atlanta. There’s even talk about possibly trading Collins for Philadelphia 76ers PG Ben Simmons.
Atlanta is 5-9 SU versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating with a minus-2.5 points per 100 possessions (CTG) and is 2-4 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.
Capela’s rim runs on pick-and-roll action and offensive rebounding tenacity greatly help Atlanta’s offense.
He grades in the 77th percentile of bigs in adjusted on/off net rating and 92nd percentile in adjusted on/off offensive rebounding rate, per CTG, and when he missed the Hawks’ previous game versus the Clippers and they were outrebounded 47-39 (13-6 in offensive rebounds).
L.A. has the fourth-worst rebounding rate in the NBA whereas Miami has the fourth-best rebounding rate. Capela’s potential absence may loom large.
The Heat also tear up bad defenses. Miami is 11-3 SU versus teams in the bottom 10 of adjusted defensive rating with plus-8.1 points per 100 possessions (ranked seventh, per CTG).
Only SPRINKLE on the HEAT (+135) because Miami’s spread is the sharper play.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the HEAT +3.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of their money line because Atlanta has lost ATS in its last nine home games and Miami is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
The HEAT +3.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because the Heat have gone Over the total in six consecutive games and the Hawks have gone Over in five of their last seven contests.
Plus both teams allow opponents to chuck 3-pointers and each rank in the top-five of 3-point shooting percentage.
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