Miami at Florida odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami at Florida odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators open their 2024 NCAA football seasons Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Miami vs. Florida odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Hurricanes hit the road to battle the in-state rival Gators. Miami has one of the top transfer portal additions with QB Cam Ward joining the Canes, while the team also added RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State. Casual fans might not be too excited by those moves, but they might be the 2 most important additions in the ACC.

Defensively, the Canes really struggled last season in the secondary, and that’s the biggest question heading into 2024. The front 7 will certainly be stout, and a late addition of Simeon Barrow from Michigan State bolsters the defensive line further.

The Gators won just 5 games last season, and obviously missed a bowl game. Coach Billy Napier heads into the season with a lot of pressure. QB Graham Mertz was surprisingly effective in 2023, and he should jell nicely with WR Eugene Wilson III for big things. RB Montrell Johnson is back to lead the run game.

The Florida defense had a rough time last season, especially trying to stop the run. Like all other programs, the Gators looked to the portal to fill gaps, but the jury is definitely out.

Miami is No. 19 in the US LBM Coaches Poll — conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.

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Miami at Florida odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:41 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Miami -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Florida +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Miami -2.5 (-115) | Florida +2.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 54 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Miami at Florida picks and predictions

Prediction

Miami 30, Florida 23

Moneyline

MIAMI (-145) is a good play if you’re a little on the conservative side, and you would rather not mess around with the points in a game which could potentially be close.

Opening on the road in a tough environment against an in-state rival is a difficult spot. However, on paper, the Hurricanes should be much, much better than Florida (+120).

Against the spread

Back MIAMI -2.5 (-115) laying the points, if you’re a more traditional bettor.

The Hurricanes haven’t visited Gainesville since Sept. 6, 2008, and it lost 26-3 that day. But things have changed significantly, as Florida +2.5 (-115) is a little toothless these days, winning just 11 times in the past 25 games across 2 seasons under Napier’s tutelage.

The Hurricanes look to get off to a fast start with Ward under center, and he could be one of the more exciting players in the entire conference.

Over/Under

The UNDER 54 (-110) is a strong play despite the fact both of these teams have their flaws on defense.

Florida struggled to stop the opposition in the run game in 2023, including more than 200 yards per game on the ground in SEC play. Miami had a difficult time containing the pass game, and it remains to be seen whether the 2024 additions in the secondary will do the trick.

Still, we should see enough D to just hit the Under, but be prepared to sweat it out.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / DukeFlorida / Florida StateGeorgia / Iowa / KentuckyLSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / UCLA / USC / WashingtonWisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire / High School

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First look: Miami at Florida odds and lines

Looking at Saturday’s Miami at Florida college football odds, lines and trends. Here’s what you need to know.

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The Miami Hurricanes and the Florida Gators open their seasons at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+). Below, we look at Miami vs. Florida odds from BetMGM Sportsbook before making our expert college football picks and predictions later in the week.

Miami had a great transfer portal season, and look extremely talented on paper. Coach Mario Cristobal lured QB Cam Ward (Washington State) from the broken-up Pac-12, and he might be one of the more exciting signal callers in the ACC, if not the entire nation. They also added talented RB Damien Martinez (Oregon State), giving them a solid core of skill position players to go along with holdover WR Xavier Restrepo.

However, it isn’t all like The U in the 80’s, as the defense was a mess last season, and the team must replace 4 defensive backs from 2023. This team might be a little heavy up front, and susceptible to the pass downfield.

Florida was a disaster last season, and coach Billy Napier is starting to make Dan Mullen and Ron Zook look pretty good right about now. He is just 11-14 in 2 seasons in The Swamp, including just 5 wins a season ago. QB Graham Mertz was actually pretty solid, and Florida has talent on offense with RB Montrell Johnson and WR Eugene Wilson III.

Like Miami, though, Florida had plenty of issues on defense in 2023, and it had tremendous difficulty stopping the run. In fact, SEC teams averaged more than 200 yards per game on the ground against the Gators. Florida tried to address those issues via the transfer portal, but the jury is obviously still out.

Miami is No. 19 in the US LBM Coaches Poll — conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Miami at Florida odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:59 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Miami -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Florida +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Miami -2.5 (-115) | Florida +2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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2023 betting stats

  • ML: Miami 7-6 | Florida 5-7
  • ATS: Miami 6-7 | Florida 4-8
  • O/U: Miami 8-5 | Florida 7-4-1

Miami vs. Florida head-to-head

Miami leads the all-time series 29-27. The most recent meeting was Aug. 24, 2019, a 24-20 win by Florida in Orlando. The Gators have won 2 of the past 3 meetings, including 26-3 in the most recent meeting in Gainesville in 2008.

Despite the fact Florida has won 2 of the previous 3 meetings, Miami holds a 7-2 series advantage in the past 9 meetings since 1986. The Hurricanes last won in Gainesville on Sept. 7, 2002, a 41-16 rout.

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Are you counting the days to NFL Week 1 or the kickoff of college football? You can fill the time at the best online casino in your state and play blackjack, roulette, slots, video poker and more.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / DukeFlorida / Florida StateGeorgia / Iowa / KentuckyLSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / UCLA / USC / WashingtonWisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire / High School

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