The new-look New England Patriots take the field Sunday at 1 p.m. ET as they play host to the Miami Dolphins in the season opener for both teams. QB Tom Brady is no longer in the picture and QB Cam Newton, a mid-summer addition, takes over as QB1 for head coach Bill Belichick and company. Let’s analyze the Patriots-Dolphins odds, lines and spread as we make our Week 1 NFL wagers and best bets around this AFC East matchup.
Dolphins at Patriots betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Dolphins +270 (bet $100, win $270) | Patriots -334 (bet $334, win $100)
- Against the Spread/ATS: Dolphins +7 (-110) | Patriots -7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 41.5 (O: -110, U: -110)
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Dolphins at Patriots game notes
- The Patriots have had their struggles vs. the Dolphins, splitting the series each of the past three seasons.
- When the Patriots have won, they’ve won big — averaging 38.7 points to the Dolphins’ eight in those wins.
- When they’ve lost, they have often been close games, including their 27-24 loss to Miami last December. In Miami’s three wins, they’ve averaged 29.3 points to the Patriots’ 25.7.
- Is Newton back to 100% health? Newton hasn’t played a game since 9/12/2019; he had two shoulder surgeries in two years at that point and then needed surgery to repair a Lisfranc (foot) injury.
- Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick opens the season under center; but he’s keeping the spot warm for rookie Tua Tagovailoa.
- How good will the New England D be? The unit lost a number of key players during the offseason to free agency, while others opted out of the year due to COVID-19. 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore is still manning one of the cornerback spots for the Pats, however.
Dolphins at Patriots key injuries
Miami Dolphins
- S Clayton Fejedelem (pectoral) doubtful
New England Patriots
- WR N’Keal Harry (shoulder) questionable
- DE Chase Winovich (shoulder) questionable
Dolphins at Patriots: Odds, betting lines, picks and prediction
Prediction
Patriots 30, Dolphins 13
Moneyline (?)
If I was confident enough in Miami, the +270 (bet $100, win $270) on the moneyline is very attractive. In the last 11 matchups, the Patriots are 10-1 at home vs. Miami. The Patriots at -334 (bet $334, win $100) just isn’t worth a wager here, as the risk is too high for too little return profit. PASS on the moneyline.
Against the Spread (?)
When I first saw this line, I was leaning Miami (+7) to cover.
But in examining things further, even with the changes New England has dealt with, Belichick and Josh McDaniels will have this offense ready. Miami, on the other hand, is still in full rebuild. As noted earlier, when the Patriots have won lately vs. Miami, it’s usually by a wide margin. An offseason of being told the dynasty is dead and they are no longer the cream of the crop in the AFC East is just the motivation the Patriots need to set tone. PATRIOTS -7 (-110) is the play here. For every $10 wagered on the Patriots to cover, you profit $9.09 should they win by at least eight points.
Over/Under (?)
A 41.5-point line here is worth a small-unit play. It’s one of the lower ones for the week’s slate, and these two teams have hit the Over in their last eight matchups. Take the OVER (-110).
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Patriots vs. Dolphins 2020: Why New England has causes for concern (Patriots Wire)
- How to watch the New England Patriots and NFL this season without cable, season preview (Patriots Wire)
- Expert picks heavily favor the Patriots against Dolphins Week 1 (Dolphins Wire)
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