Mets Reds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The New York Mets (50-31) and Cincinnati Reds (28-52) meet Wednesday, at 6:40 p.m. ET, for the third of a 4-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: tied 1-1.

The Mets won Monday’s opener 7-4 and then lost 1-0 Tuesday. Game 2 is more indicative of how New York has performed of late. The Mets own a .653 OPS over their last 14 games.

The Reds have also struggled with the bats recently. Cincinnati is 2-5 with a .598 OPS over its last 7 games.

Mets at Reds projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft

Peterson (5-1, 3.24 ERA) has posted a 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 58 1/3 IP across 10 starts and 2 relief appearances.

Owns a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, with 25K and just 2 BB in his last 18 1/3 IP.
Has clocked a 2.17 ERA, 0.93 WHIP on the road.

Ashcraft (4-2, 4.53 ERA) is tabbed for his ninth start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 43 2/3 IP.

Coming off a rocky outing (7 runs in 2 1/3 IP) on the heels of making a season-high 104 pitches at San Francisco June 24.
Owns a 2.59 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 24 1/3 IP at home.

Mets at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mets -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
Run line (RL): Mets -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Mets at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Mets 4

Money line

Cincinnati is at its best against lefty pitching, and past performances say the Reds will be productive at home. The bullpens figure to loom large in this one. Cincinnati owns a Boeing 7.49 ERA over the last 30 days, but the play is on the Reds being essentially hard-to-repeat bad. And on the Mets being a bit overcooked overall.

MAKE A PLAY ON CINCINNATI (+135).

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Run line/Against the sp,read

More risk-averse bettors may want some cushion to work with. Consider the REDS +1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Peg both offenses as perhaps too far out over its skis (mostly due to some high hit rates on balls in play in high-leverage situations). Ashcraft does well to induce ground balls and soft contact. He has been a bit (unluckily) dinged by a high home runs-on-fly balls rate (13.9%).

BACK THE UNDER 9.5 (+100) on what is forecasted as a breeze-in evening in Cincinnati.

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The New York Mets (50-30) and Cincinnati Reds (27-52) meet Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET to continue a 4-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 1-0 after Monday’s 7-4 win.

The Mets’ 7 runs marked their most in a game since June 17. From June 18-July 3, New York clocked a mere .637 OPS, but after Monday’s holiday affair the ball club is 3-1 in its last 4 games.

The Reds have lost 5 of their last 6. They’ve scored just 3.33 runs per game on a .620 OPS in those 6 games. At home, Cincinnati has struggled mightily of late. The Reds are 3-14 with a 6.08 ERA in their last 17 games along the banks of the Ohio River.

Mets at Reds projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. LHP Nick Lodolo

Scherzer (5-1, 2.54 ERA) is tabbed for a return from the IL (oblique). He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

Reports are the veteran right-hander is targeting about 90 pitches over 6 IP in this outing.
Surrendered 4R on 7 H and 2 BB with 14 K in 8 IP in 2 rehab starts with Double-A Binghamton.
Current Cincinnati batters own a whiff-heavy .537 OPS against him.

Lodolo (1-2, 5.52 ERA) is making his 4th start of his rookie season. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 14 2/3 IP.

Is also coming off the IL (back strain). Has not pitched in the majors since April 24.
Logged a 5.54 ERA in 13 rehab innings, but was solid in his last 3 efforts on the farm.

Mets at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:16 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mets -210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Reds +170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Mets -1.5 (-130) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

Mets at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Reds 3

Money line

The juice is loose: PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The bullpens figure to loom large in this one. Cincinnati owns a Boeing 7.64 ERA over the last 30 days, but the play is on the Reds being essentially hard-to-repeat bad. And on the Mets being a bit overcooked overall.

BACK THE REDS +1.5 (+105).

Over/Under

Hot and humid (and likely wind blowing out) in Cincinnati mixed with some pitching uncertainly with a couple IL returnees could make for a high total.

One of those pitchers, however, is Scherzer. Add in some analytics that peg both offenses as perhaps too far out over their skis (mostly due to some high hit rates on balls in play in high-leverage situations), and there is ROOM FOR PROFIT ON THE UNDER 9.5 (-135).

A 25-cent take here doesn’t fit my eye. Consider a partial-unit play unless you can get the Under 9.5 at -125 or better.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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