The New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals Thursday for a 7:09 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. A year ago, deGrom went 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 13.76 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9 in 68 IP over 12 starts. In his last five season debuts, the Mets ace has allowed just 2 earned runs over 28 2/3 IP for a 0.63 ERA.
RHP Max Scherzer is scheduled to get the ball for the Nationals. In 2020 he went 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 12.30 K/9 and 3.07 BB/9 over 67 1/3 IP spanning a dozen starts. Scherzer has scuffled against lefty bats the last couple seasons (.861 OPS allowed in 2020), and that could present a problem against a Mets nine that can lean that way with strength. The 36-year-old right-hander was managing an ankle sprain in spring training.
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Mets at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -160 (bet $150 to win $150) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+115) | Nationals +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: +105 | U: -130)
Prediction
Mets 5, Nationals 3
Money line (ML)
New York batters have gotten to Scherzer for a .775 OPS in past meetings and the Mets are a lean Thursday but not at this price. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The run line here is worth a look as a partial-unit play. A deGrom opening start, and the Mets likely having the better bullpen of the two clubs makes for a sliver of value on NEW YORK -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over hit in four of the last five meetings between these two clubs last season. The forecasted wind and weather (temperature in the 40s, wind in from left field) and the reputation of the starters has this total down at a level 7. There is value in wagering for a game flow that gets to 8 or more combined runs.
The starters are tremendous, but a maybe-injured Scherzer of 2021 is not the same as vintage Scherzer. Both bullpens were bottom-10 groups a year ago. Figure on a third of this game being played against those hurlers and with revamped offenses that are certainly dangerous in spots.
BACK THE OVER 7 (+105).
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