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The Merrimack Warriors (5-7) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (9-2) meet Thursday at the University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, Calif. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Merrimack vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Merrimack suffered a 74-68 loss at the Stanford Cardinal on Tuesday, although the Warriors covered as a 15.5-point underdog. The Warriors have covered in 4 of the past 5 contests. The Over (135) cashed, and the Over and Under have alternated in the past 5 games. The Over is 5-2 in the past 7 outings.
Saint Mary’s lost 67-65 in OT against the Boise State Broncos Saturday at the Mountain American Center in Idaho Falls on a neutral-floor game. SMC is 4-0 straight up (SU) in 4 games against Quad 4 opponents, but the Gaels are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in those games while the Over is 3-1. However, the Under is 5-1 in the past 6 games for Saint Mary’s.
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Merrimack at Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds. Lines last updated at 10:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Merrimack +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500) | Saint Mary’s -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Merrimack +20.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s -20.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 129.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Merrimack at Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 77, Merrimack 59
Moneyline
Saint Mary’s (-5000) will cost you 50 times your potential return, which is obviously way too much risk for not nearly enough reward. In fact, you must risk $100 for every $2 of profit. That’s ridiculous, and not a recommended long-term betting strategy.
PASS, and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
PLAY MERRIMACK +20.5 (-110) catching this massive amount of points in Moraga.
The Warriors have managed to cover 4 of the past 5 games, and it is 3-1 ATS in the past 4 games as a double-digit underdog, including a straight up win at Troy Nov. 29 as an 11-point underdog.
Saint Mary’s -20.5 (-115) is just 1-3 ATS in the past 4 games, while going 3-7 ATS in 10 games this season.
Over/Under
OVER 129.5 (-110) is a strong play in this battle out west.
The Gaels have cashed low in 5 of the past 6 games, as SMC struggles to score, while locking it down defensively. Saint Mary’s has scored 76.2 PPG while hitting just 31.4% from behind the 3-point line. The Gaels have allowed just 63.4 PPG, while teams are hitting just 38.8% from the field.
For Merrimack, the Over is 5-2 in the past 7 games. However, the Warriors have really struggled offensively, going for 63.3 PPG, among the worst marks in the nation, while hitting just 41.1% from the field and 30.1% from behind the 3-point line.
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