Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 7 seed Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2) host the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (2-1) Saturday at Target Center for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Memphis rallied from a 26-point deficit for a stunning 104-95 victory at Minnesota in Game 3 Thursday. The Grizzlies neutralized T-wolves All-Star C Karl-Anthony Towns, holding him to just 8 points on 4 shot attempts and Memphis outperformed Minnesota in three of the “four factors” in the win.

Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane and PF Brandon Clarke stepped up in Game 3. Bane scored a game-high 26 points, including 7-for-15 from 3-point land, and Clarke added 20 points on 66.7% shooting (6-for-9) with 8 rebounds off the bench.

Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Grizzlies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Timberwolves +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-115) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries

Grizzlies

  • SF Dillon Brooks (foot) questionable

Timberwolves

  • None

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Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 117, Timberwolves 112

Money line

LEAN GRIZZLIES (-145) since their ML is only 30 cents on the dollar more expensive than their spread.

But I prefer Memphis laying the points at a cheaper price point because these teams have a similar identity and the Grizzlies are way more efficient.

Both teams like to get out in transition by forcing turnovers or off of live rebounds. However, Memphis is outexecuting Minnesota in all “four factors” in this series.

It seems as though Minnesota and Towns have no answer for the Grizzlies’ adjustment of sitting C Steven Adams and playing more athletic bigs who can stay in front of Towns on the perimeter. KAT has been getting into foul trouble early and has been a non-factor offensively in Games 2 and 3.

Furthermore, this Minnesota team feels similar to last season’s Memphis playoff team. The Grizzlies made last postseason via the play-in tourney and stole Game 1 versus the Utah Jazz before losing the next 4 games. I think the T-wolves have a similar fate in these playoffs.

It’s only a LEAN GRIZZLIES (-145) because I’m confident enough in them to lay the points at a cheaper price.

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Against the spread

BET GRIZZLIES -2.5 (-115) based on the previous analysis and this is a much more profitable spot for Memphis.

The Grizzlies are 6-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 visits to Minnesota and 13-7 ATS as road favorites with a plus-3.1 ATS margin. While the T-wolves are 3-10 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs and 20-23-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.

The GRIZZLIES LAYING THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 232.5 (-110), if at all, because this Grizzlies-Timberwolves is by far the fastest-paced series in the playoffs, Memphis has the highest free-throw attempt rate and Minnesota has the 4th-highest 3-point attempt rate.

However, this total still feels too high because neither team plays good half-court offense and the Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (1-1) head to Target Center Friday for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Memphis rallied back from a Game 1 upset to blast Minnesota 124-96 in Game 2 Tuesday. The Grizzlies outscored the T-Wolves in all four quarters and outperformed them in three of the “four factors”.

Minnesota is 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home versus Memphis this season. The total is 3-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the six Grizzlies-Timberwolves meetings from the regular season and playoffs.

Also seeBet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 21 playoff breakdown

Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Grizzlies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Timberwolves +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 236.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries

Grizzlies

  • None

Timberwolves

  • None

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Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 119, Timberwolves 115

Money line

GIMME the GRIZZLIES (-140) because their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, made a crucial adjustment in Game 2 by sitting big Steven Adams and using more athletic bigs such as Jarren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. to defend Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns.

Even though Adams is a big reason why Memphis was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, the Grizzlies can still outrebound the T-Wolves with Adams off the floor. Memphis nearly tripled Minnesota’s rebounding rate in Game 2 and the Grizzlies have a strength-on-weakness edge on the offensive glass.

Memphis was first in both offensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game (PPG) during the regular season, while Minnesota was 28th in defensive rebounding rate and 25th in second-chance PPG allowed.

The T-Wolves also try to force turnovers that lead to easy baskets but the Grizzlies have a good offensive turnover rate and allow the third-fewest points off of turnovers per game.

Now that Jenkins has found a frontcourt solution that can frustrate KAT,  the gap between Memphis’s and Minnesota’s backcourt is wider than the gap between KAT and the Grizzlies’ bigs.

BET the GRIZZLIES (-140) to take Game 3.

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Against the spread

PASS because Memphis’s ML is only 28 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) and Game 3 most likely will be decided by the team that executes better down the stretch. It would be brutal if Memphis eked past Minnesota but the Timberwolves cashed.

However, the Grizzlies are 5-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Minnesota while the T-Wolves are 3-9 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.

If we like Memphis to win outright then the Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) probably gets there but let’s stick with the ML.

Over/Under

PASS.

I “lean” to the Over 236.5 (-115) because the T-Wolves’ role players should knock down more shots now that this series is back in Minnesota. And Memphis’s aggressive and fast-paced style is a nightmare matchup for Minnesota’s defense.

That said, the total has been steamed down by sharp line movement and the professionals seem to be betting the Under 236.5 (-107) while the public is backing the Over. It’s obvious which side we’d prefer to be on even though the Over makes a lot of basketball sense.

PASS.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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