The Memphis Grizzlies (24-14) meet the Cleveland Cavaliers (21-16) Tuesday at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis won its fifth straight game Monday by beating the brakes off the Brooklyn Nets 118-104 as a 6.5-point underdog.
The Grizzlies are 5-1 straight-up (SU), 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the past two weeks with the sixth-best adjusted net rating plus-7.8 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Cleveland snapped its three-game losing skid by defeating the Indiana Pacers 108-104 Sunday as a 4-point favorite.
The Cavs are 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS and 1-4-1 O/U in the last 14 days with the 14th-ranked adjusted net rating at plus-0.4 points per 100 possessions (per CTG).
The Grizzlies took down the Cavs 132-121 as 7-point home favorites in their first meeting Oct. 20.
Grizzlies at Cavaliers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Cavaliers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +3.5 (-112) | Cavaliers -3.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Grizzlies at Cavaliers key injuries
Grizzlies (not officially submitted)
- SF Dillon Brooks (health and safety protocols) out
- SG De’Anthony Melton (health and safety protocols) out
- SG John Konchar (health and safety protocols) out
- PF Xavier Tillman (health and safety protocols) out
Cavaliers
- SG Isaac Okoro (elbow) out
- SF Cedi Osman (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Ricky Rubio (knee) out
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Grizzlies at Cavaliers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Grizzlies 107, Cavaliers 104
Money line
SPRINKLE on the GRIZZLIES (+125) with the plan on betting a full unit or so on Memphis’s spread. However, the Grizzlies are 6-3 SU versus teams in the top-10 of efficiency differential while Cleveland is 5-10 SU (per CTG).
The Cavs also have the third-best defensive rating but the Grizzlies play very well against good defenses. Memphis is 8-3 SU against top-10 defenses with the fourth-best adjusted net rating and the fifth-best spread differential at a plus-2.1 ATS margin.
More importantly, the Grizzlies have strength-on-weakness edges in their favor in the ball security and rebounding departments.
Memphis has the fifth-best defensive turnover rate and scores the third-most points off of turnovers per game. Whereas Cleveland has the third-worst offensive turnover rate and ranks 24th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.
While PG Darius Garland returning to action is a good thing for Cleveland its turnover rate actually increases by 1.3% when Garland is on the floor, which grades in the 24th percentile of point guards.
Memphis thoroughly dominated Cleveland on the glass in their first meeting this season. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Cavs 53-36 (13-7 in offensive rebounds) and Memphis big Steven Adams owns Cleveland big Jarrett Allen on the glass in their head-to-head history.
Adams outrebounds Allen 13.1-6.4 on average per game in their seven career head-to-head meetings. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Adams’ teams are 6-1 all-time versus Allen’s teams.
The plan is to bet more on Memphis plus the points but SPRINKLE on the GRIZZLIES (+125) for a little extra value.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the GRIZZLIES +3.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of the money line because this is a much better spot for Memphis.
The Grizzlies are 4-2 ATS on the second game of a back-to-back set and have the best cover rate when playing with a rest disadvantage at 6-2 ATS with a plus-4.8 ATS margin.
The GRIZZLIES +3.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 217.5 (-110) for a half-unit because this total is suspicious. The first Grizzlies-Cavaliers meeting went over the 217-point total by 35 points yet this game’s total is only a half-point higher. Hmmm.
Cleveland is 3-7 O/U as a home favorite and Memphis is 2-4 O/U on zero days rest with a minus-7.3 total margin.
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