The Memphis Grizzlies (17-16) host the Denver Nuggets (21-15) Friday at FedExForum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Denver won four straight going into the All-Star break—all on the road—and covered the spread in all four games. Three of those wins were by double digits.
The Grizzlies crushed the Washington Wizards 127-112 at home Wednesday. Memphis has won three of its past four games and is on a 4-game against the spread (ATS) winning streak.
The Nuggets beat the Grizzlies in two of their three regular-season meetings last year but they each covered once and the other game was a push.
Nuggets at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Grizzlies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets -3 (-115) | Grizzlies +3 (-105)
- Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Grizzlies: Key injuries
Nuggets
- PF JaMychal Green (shoulder) questionable
- PF Paul Millsap (knee) questionable
- SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
Grizzlies
- PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out
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Nuggets at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Grizzlies 106
Money line (ML)
PASS with a lean on Nuggets (-155) because Denver’s money line is on the fringe of playable for me and it might be worth putting in a parlay.
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Against the spread (ATS)
There are a few reasons I like NUGGETS -3 (-115) for 1.5 units.
First, CleaningTheGlass.com ranks Memphis as the 7th best defense in points per 100 possessions and Denver has knifed through good defenses this season.
The Nuggets are 11-4 overall with the third-highest points per 100 possessions on offense and the third-best spread differential vs. top-10 defenses.
Second, the Grizzlies’ offense relies on capitalizing on their opponent’s mistakes (1st in points off turnovers per game) and crashing the glass (fourth in second-chance points), but the Nuggets are top-10 defensively in both of those metrics.
Finally, this is a good spot for Denver, who’s 9-5 ATS as a road favorite and Memphis is 4-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Like I mentioned before, Denver’s mediocre defense matches up really well against how Memphis plays.
The Grizzlies don’t get to the foul line a lot (29th in FTA/FG rate), is a bad shooting team (21st in effective field-goal shooting) and the Under has cashed in their last five games as an underdog.
Also, the Nuggets are 28th in pace of play and they will definitely want to slow this game down since the Grizzlies score the most fast-break points per game.
BET 1 unit on UNDER 227.5 (-110).
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast: The Players Championship and NBA’s second half
- Hoops Hype rumors: Nuggets | Grizzlies
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