Memphis Grizzlies betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 10

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (3-1) visit the FedExForum Wednesday to play the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (1-3) in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State rallied from a dismal first-half offensive performance to beat Memphis 101-98 in Monday’s Game 4. The Warriors scored just 38 first-half points and finished 9 of 37 from behind the arc.

The Grizzlies struggled in the half-court without All-Star PG Ja Morant, who will most likely miss the rest of this series with a knee injury. Memphis guards Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane scored a combined 20 points on 29.6% shooting (8 of 27).

Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Grizzlies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread: Warriors -4.5 (-105) | Grizzlies +4.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (neck) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

Grizzlies

PG Ja Morant (knee) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 115, Grizzlies 103

Money line

PASS because the Warriors (-175) is a little too expensive for a close-out game on the road vs. a Grizzlies (+140) team that’s shown it can play without their best player.

According to VegasInsider.com, roughly 90% of the action is on Golden State’s ML and it’s typically not profitable to follow such lopsided markets in sports betting.

But I don’t like Memphis’s chances of extending this series because the Warriors are outperforming the Grizzlies in 3 of the “4 factors” and Morant put Memphis on his back in the first 3 games of this series.

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Against the spread

LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) only because we are getting to the party a little late since Golden State opened as 3.5-point favorites (per VegasInsider.com), but have been steamed up to the current number by the market.

However, the Warriors couldn’t have played any worse in Game 4 and the Grizzlies +4.5 (-120) could only muster 98 points. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole all shot terribly in Game 4 and that won’t happen again.

Also, Golden State is outrebounding Memphis and the Grizzlies were the top rebounding team during the NBA’s regular season. The Warriors’ shooters will start cashing in on the extra possessions gained through rebounding.

Most importantly, Memphis is scoring 13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this postseason with Morant off the floor (according to CleaningTheGlass.com) and he was the best player on the floor through the first 3 games of this series.

LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) since we are getting the worst of the number.

Over/Under

PASS since my prediction aligns too closely with the market’s projected score.

If anything, I “lean” to the Under 218.5 (-110) because the Under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 Warriors-Grizzlies meetings and Memphis’s offense is greatly diminished with Morant out of the lineup.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (1-2) hope to even their Western Conference semifinals playoff series with the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (2-1) Monday. Game 4 at Chase Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State crushed Memphis 142-112 in Game 3 Saturday thanks to a 73.2% effective field goal rate by the Warriors, led by Steph Curry‘s team-high 30 points on 50.0% shooting (14-for-14 from the foul line).

Memphis PG, and 2021-22 Most Improved Player, Ja Morant is averaging a series-best 38.3 points on 62.3% true shooting (.506/.433/.857) with 6.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists and a plus-17 net rating.

However, the major storyline in the Grizzlies-Warriors series is Morant’s knee injury (and the controversy surrounding it) which may force Morant to miss Game 4.

The Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Warriors in their last 10 meetings and the total is 5-5 Over/Under (O/U) in those contests.

Grizzlies at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:17 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Grizzlies +440 (bet $100 to win $440) | Warriors -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
Against the spread: Grizzlies +10.5 (-112) | Warriors -10.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Grizzlies at Warriors key injuries

Grizzlies

PG Ja Morant (knee) doubtful

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (neck) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

[tipico]

Grizzlies at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 117, Grizzlies 110

Money line

PASS with a “lean” to the Grizzlies (+440) because I like their spread, this is such a fat payout and Memphis has shown it can play without Morant if it needs to.

The Grizzlies were 20-5 SU in games Morant missed during the regular season and Morant had a minus-3.2 adjusted on/off net rating, which grades out in the 34th percentile of all point guards, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

However, the Warriors were clicking on a championship-level in Game 3 and I cannot talk myself into a Grizzlies (+440) sprinkle.

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Against the spread

BET the GRIZZLIES +10.5 (-112) because they have enough ball-handlers to make up for Morant’s potential absence and a backdoor cover is wide open for Memphis at this number.

Memphis gets SG Dillon Brooks back after he served a Game 3 suspension for his flagrant foul against Payton. Brooks had a team-high plus-8.0 adjusted on/off net rating during the regular season and a plus-7.3 in these playoffs (CTG).

Between Brooks and SG Desmond Bane, who is leading the Grizzlies in adjusted on/off net rating in these playoffs at plus-33.4 (CTG), Memphis can still execute its offense vs. Golden State’s suspect perimeter defense.

Memphis’s offensive turnover rate improves when Morant is off the floor and the Grizzlies have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Warriors in ball security. Golden State tends to get a little clumsy with the pill and Memphis is an ultra-aggressive defense that likes to get easy buckets off of turnovers.

This is also a profitable spot for the Grizzlies since they are 3-1 ATS when being spotted 7.5 or more points and 24-17-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.

BET the GRIZZLIES +10.5 (-112) for three-fourths of a unit.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 223.5 (-107) because there’s been too much line movement from the original total of 227, Golden State is 4-1 O/U in the last 5 games as a home favorite and Memphis is 4-1 O/U in the last 5 games vs. teams with a 60.0% or better winning rate.

But, it would make sense for the Grizzlies to slow this game down if Morant is unable to go and a slight majority of the action is on the Over (per VegasInsider.com) so there’s a contrarian angle in taking the Under here.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors Game 3 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (1-1) visit the Golden State Warriors (1-1) Saturday for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Grizzlies are among two teams left in the playoffs with both an offensive and defensive rating in the top six during the regular season (the Phoenix Suns are the other).

That play was in full effect against the visiting Warriors in Game 2 in which PG Ja Morant dropped a game-high 47 points in a 106-101 victory. He single-handedly abused the Warriors’ “fast five” lineup.

The series now moves to Chase Center, where the Warriors posted the NBA’s second-best home record (31-10) during the regular season – the Suns were first at 32-9. The Dubs are significantly better at home and likely won’t shoot 7-for-38 from deep again as they did in Game 2.

Golden State will be without SG Gary Payton II, the primary defender on Morant in the opener, due to a fractured elbow. Payton was injured when hit from behind on a breakaway by SF Dillon Brooks in the first 3 minutes of Game 2. Brooks received a flagrant foul 2, was ejected and has been suspended for Saturday’s contest.

Grizzlies at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:46 p.m. ET.

Money line: Grizzlies +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Warriors -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Grizzlies at Warriors key injuries

Grizzlies

SF Dillon Brooks (suspension) out

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (neck) out
SG Gary Payton II (shoulder) out

[tipico]

Grizzlies at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 112, Grizzlies 110

Money line

PASS.

The Warriors (-300) are entirely too expensive. The only playable side is the Grizzlies (+230), but considering the Warriors made a league-high 15 triples per game at home this season, I’d go with the points (spread) instead.

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Against the spread

BET GRIZZLIES +6.5 (-105).

I’m not ready to say the Grizzlies are better without Brooks, but trading Payton II for Brooks in Game 3 bodes well for Memphis. Brooks was a key player during the regular season but is shooting just 34.8% from the field during the playoffs.

Couple Payton II’s absence with the fact that the Warriors haven’t had an answer for Morant, and it seems crazy to lay 6.5 points with Golden State.

The Grizzlies had the fourth-best offensive rating and sixth-best defensive rating this season. While I expect the Warriors to come out on top, the Grizzlies will also have C Steven Adams, who was a key reason they led the league in offensive rebounding rate.

Combine it all, and GRIZZLIES +6.5 (-105) to cover is my favorite bet. Chances are this won’t end as a public-favorite play either. Pregame.com currently has 59% of the tickets on Golden State.

Over/Under

PASS.

Game 1 went Over the total, while Game 2 didn’t come close – finishing 21 points Under the 228 O/U line.

These two teams play at a sporadic pace that typically leans toward the style of the Grizzlies, who were one of the fastest-playing teams in the NBA.

If I had a lean here, it’s to the Under as I expect the Warriors to limit Morant, and Brooks’ willingness to take and sometimes make difficult shots will be missed.

With two top-six defenses, Under 225.5 (-110) is the safer play, but given the firepower for Golden State, it’s not a sure thing.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors visit FedExForum Tuesday to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 2 of their Western Conference semifinal. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors won the opener 117-116 Sunday.

PG Ja Morant led the Grizzlies in Game 1, scoring 34 points. PF Jaren Jackson Jr. was also incredible, scoring a season-high 33, including six 3’s to match a season-high.

Despite four-time All-Star PF Draymond Green being ejected in the second quarter, the Warriors still came out on top as SG Jordan Poole scored a team-high 31 points.

The Warriors failed to cover as 1.5-point favorites Sunday, dropping their ATS (against the spread) record as road favorites to 11-14-2. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs, the fourth-best covering rate in the league.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:31 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Grizzlies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread: Warriors -1.5 (-120) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (cervical) out
SG Klay Thompson (knee) probable

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) out
SG Desmond Bane (back) questionable
SG Ziaire Williams (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Warriors 111

Money line

BET GRIZZLIES (+105).

While there was quite a scene made around Green getting ejected, that may have lit a spark in the Warriors in the second half of Game 1.

While the Warriors averaged the second-most turnovers (14.9 per game) in the NBA this season, their inability to keep the ball should continue to play a factor as they lost the turnover battle 17-14 in Game 1 – Green had 5 turnovers before his ejection.

Poole shooting 60% (12-for-20) likely won’t be repeated, especially against Memphis’ top-6 defense. I also wouldn’t expect to see Grizzlies SF Dillon Brooks struggle as heavily as he did in the opener where he was 3-for-13 from the field.

Look for the Oregon Ducks product to bounce back in Game 2 just as he did in first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. After going 3-for-18 in a Game 5 win against Minnesota, he responded with 23 points in Game 6’s clincher.

Game 1 of this series came down to the wire. Quite a bit when right for the Warriors, especially considering they won the rebounding battle 51-47.

Expect turnovers and rebounds to be a bigger storyline and the Grizzlies to come out on top in Game 2.

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Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Grizzlies +1.5 (-105) to come out on top. However, their plus-money value on the money line is what I’d prefer to play instead of only getting 1.5 points.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 227.5 (-110).

Nothing really changed between these two teams, although two key players showed up on the injury report. Furthermore, sportsbooks got a peek at what the pace would be like which was frantic. The 117-116 Game 1 final eclipsed the Over 224 line by 9 points.

With both teams top-6 in defensive rating on the season, they should be better at limiting the other as both shot over 43% from the field and 36% from deep.

Odds are Green won’t get ejected again, so he should have a greater impact for the Warriors’ defense. Couple that with likely increased minutes for Warriors SG Gary Payton II, who has been the primary defender on Morant, and both teams should find it more difficult to score.

Lastly, 91% of the cash is on the Over, per pregame.com. The sportsbooks aren’t going to get burned that badly. Combine it all, and the Under seems like a strong play.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors visit FedExForum Sunday to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors come into this series after beating the Denver Nuggets in 5 games, only losing by 5 points in Game 4. The Warriors were 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in that series and 3-1 when giving a spread under 8.

Golden State was led by two-time MVP G Stephen Curry who averaged 28 points per game, shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep. The Dubs have covered 8 of their last 11.

Memphis it is coming off a tiring series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was 6 games of high-energy performances in which the Grizzlies covered 3 of them.

The Grizzlies were led in the series by G Desmond Bane who averaged 23.5 points per game and shot 49.1% from the field. Memphis is 55-32-1 ATS, the best covering rate in the NBA.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:13 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Grizzlies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -2.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (cervical) out

Grizzlies

F Steve Adams (health and safety protocols) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Grizzlies 107

Money line

PASS.

The Warriors opened at -140 which was a bit too pricey for me although I do expect them to come out on top. Although the line has flipped I’ll pass here and back the spread.

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Against the spread

BET the WARRIORS -2.5 (-110).

While the Grizzlies are young and should be able to quickly bounce back from their Game 6 on Friday night, preparing for the Warriors in such a quick time is difficult.

They’ll also be preparing for a lineup they’ve yet to see this season, the Warriors’ “Fast Five.”

Also, Memphis’ regular-season advantage was on the glass, where it was the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Without Adams, it won’t have that same size dominance on the smaller Warriors.

Considering his absence will take away their top advantage coupled with F Draymond Green‘s ability to limit G Ja Morant‘s drives, I expect the Warriors to tame a lethal Grizzlies attack.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 220.5 (-110).

The Warriors had the second-best defensive rating in the NBA, but much of the total will depend on the pace.

That’s what the Grizzlies bring to the table. The Grizzlies ranked 4th in pace during the regular season and their series with the Minnesota was the fastest-pace first-round matchup.

The extremely high totals forced it to just be 4-2 O/U. The Warriors were 4-1 O/U during their 5-game series. Golden State scored 120 or more in 3 of the 5 games.

I expect similar offensive prowess from the Dubs, and they should be able to do just that with the extra possessions a quicker game will undoubtedly provide.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (3-2) visit the Target Center Friday to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-3) in Game 6 of the first-round Western Conference playoff series. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

While many thought this series would be over quickly, the Timberwolves, led by C Karl-Anthony Towns, have embraced the underdog role and come out on top twice. They won Game 1, riding high off their play-in win over the Los Angeles Clippers, and won Game 4. They lost Game 5 by 2 points.

While Towns is the most impactful, G Anthony Edwards is leading the team in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game. Minnesota is 7-7 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog.

Memphis has played well when traveling up north. The Grizzlies lost by 1 to Minnesota in Game 4 after beating them by 9 in Game 3.

While G Ja Morant was the league’s Most Improved Player, the Grizzlies have been led by G Desmond Bane, who is averaging 23.4 points per game. F Brandon Clarke has been impressive as well, notching 16.4 per game.

Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 a.m. ET.

Money line: Grizzlies -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Timberwolves -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies -1.5 (-108) | Timberwolves +1.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) out

Timberwolves

None

[tipico]

Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Timberwolves 111

Money line

LEAN to the GRIZZLIES -117.

Simply put, the Grizzlies are the better team. The main difference between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves is the impressive Memphis defense. The Grizzlies ranked 6th in defensive rating during the regular season.

They were also the league’s best offensive rebounding team. As a series goes on, these impressive numbers start to show themselves more clearly.

Memphis was 13-8 ATS as a road favorite this season, so it plays well on the road. The Grizzlies are +8 at the Target Center in their 2 games this series.

With the last 2 games decided by 3 points, I’ll just lean to the Grizzlies as they’re the more proven side and have shown that all season long.

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Against the spread

PASS.

This game should be a nail-biter, and I’d prefer the money line value here rather than getting the point on the spread.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 228.5 (-108).

The Under has hit 3 times in this series, and this is going to be the lowest total yet. Almost 80% of the tickets per pregame.com at the time of writing are on the Over yet just around 65% of the cash is.

This total hasn’t moved though. The books haven’t adjusted it yet which means they’re comfortable with their stance despite not being risk-averse in this situation. I’d side with the books here.

The Wolves and Grizzlies are respectively 14th and 10th in the playoffs in shooting, which has made the drastically high pace not matter as much.

Both play at an ultra-fast pace, but if shots continue not to fall, the Under should still be the better bet, which it is in what could be a series-ending Game 6.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2) head back to the FedExForum Tuesday for Game 5 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the Memphis Grizzlies (2-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and airs on TNT. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Minnesota evened the series by winning Game 4 119-118 Saturday in what was a redemption game for T-Wolves big Karl-Anthony Towns who scored just 8 points in 32:46 minutes of work in Game 3.

Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane and backup PF Brandon Clarke stepped up Saturday with Bane scoring a game-high 34 points and Clarke adding 15 points on 77.8% shooting off the bench.

The T-Wolves outperformed the Grizzlies in three of the “four factors” in Game 4, especially in free-throw attempt rate where Minnesota nearly doubled Memphis.

Timberwolves at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Timberwolves +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Grizzlies -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
Against the spread: Timberwolves +6.5 (-120) | Grizzlies -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 231.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Timberwolves at Grizzlies key injuries

Timberwolves

None

Grizzlies

None

[tipico]

Timberwolves at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 116, Timberwolves 113

Money line

LEAN to the TIMBERWOLVES (+205) because of the fat payout and Minnesota is getting better play from their stars.

KAT got ripped for his Game 3 performance, and rightfully so, but he is averaging 21.3 points on 70.7% true shooting (.565/.417/.875) with 10.8 rebounds. T-Wolves SF Anthony Edwards is scoring a series-best 24.8 points on 65.4% true shooting (.485/.421/.864).

On the other hand Grizzlies PG Ja Morant, the league’s Most Improved Player, is struggling from the field with a 42.3% effective field goal shooting rate. PF Jaren Jackson Jr. has a minus-10 net rating and has gotten at least 5 fouls in three games this series.

The T-Wolves plus the points is a sharp play and I typically like sprinkling on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover the spread.

These teams have similar identities but the Grizzlies are more efficient and the home team for a pivotal Game 5.

Hence LEAN TIMBERWOLVES (+205).

The prediction is an honest assessment of Game 5.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-120) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and because there’s reverse line movement headed towards Minnesota in the betting market.

Game 5’s look-ahead line was “Grizzlies -7” and has been lowered down to the current number despite a majority of the action being on Memphis, according to Tipico Sportsbook.

There also isn’t 6 points worth of difference between these teams. They are tied 2-2 ATS in the series but the Grizzlies’ Game 3 win and cover featured their incredible comeback from down 26 points. The T-Wolves were clearly the right side for Game 3.

The TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 231.5 (-112) because the total has been steamed down by sharp line movement, both teams have a below-average offensive rating in these playoffs and the Under has cashed in four of the last six Timberwolves-Grizzlies.

However, I cannot fully get there on the Under because this is the fastest-paced series in the postseason with the highest free-throw attempt rate.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 7 seed Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2) host the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (2-1) Saturday at Target Center for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Memphis rallied from a 26-point deficit for a stunning 104-95 victory at Minnesota in Game 3 Thursday. The Grizzlies neutralized T-wolves All-Star C Karl-Anthony Towns, holding him to just 8 points on 4 shot attempts and Memphis outperformed Minnesota in three of the “four factors” in the win.

Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane and PF Brandon Clarke stepped up in Game 3. Bane scored a game-high 26 points, including 7-for-15 from 3-point land, and Clarke added 20 points on 66.7% shooting (6-for-9) with 8 rebounds off the bench.

Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Grizzlies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Timberwolves +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-115) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-107)
Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries

Grizzlies

SF Dillon Brooks (foot) questionable

Timberwolves

None

[tipico]

Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 117, Timberwolves 112

Money line

LEAN GRIZZLIES (-145) since their ML is only 30 cents on the dollar more expensive than their spread.

But I prefer Memphis laying the points at a cheaper price point because these teams have a similar identity and the Grizzlies are way more efficient.

Both teams like to get out in transition by forcing turnovers or off of live rebounds. However, Memphis is outexecuting Minnesota in all “four factors” in this series.

It seems as though Minnesota and Towns have no answer for the Grizzlies’ adjustment of sitting C Steven Adams and playing more athletic bigs who can stay in front of Towns on the perimeter. KAT has been getting into foul trouble early and has been a non-factor offensively in Games 2 and 3.

Furthermore, this Minnesota team feels similar to last season’s Memphis playoff team. The Grizzlies made last postseason via the play-in tourney and stole Game 1 versus the Utah Jazz before losing the next 4 games. I think the T-wolves have a similar fate in these playoffs.

It’s only a LEAN GRIZZLIES (-145) because I’m confident enough in them to lay the points at a cheaper price.

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Against the spread

BET GRIZZLIES -2.5 (-115) based on the previous analysis and this is a much more profitable spot for Memphis.

The Grizzlies are 6-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 visits to Minnesota and 13-7 ATS as road favorites with a plus-3.1 ATS margin. While the T-wolves are 3-10 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs and 20-23-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.

The GRIZZLIES LAYING THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 232.5 (-110), if at all, because this Grizzlies-Timberwolves is by far the fastest-paced series in the playoffs, Memphis has the highest free-throw attempt rate and Minnesota has the 4th-highest 3-point attempt rate.

However, this total still feels too high because neither team plays good half-court offense and the Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (1-1) head to Target Center Friday for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Memphis rallied back from a Game 1 upset to blast Minnesota 124-96 in Game 2 Tuesday. The Grizzlies outscored the T-Wolves in all four quarters and outperformed them in three of the “four factors”.

Minnesota is 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home versus Memphis this season. The total is 3-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the six Grizzlies-Timberwolves meetings from the regular season and playoffs.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 21 playoff breakdown

Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Grizzlies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Timberwolves +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 236.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries

Grizzlies

None

Timberwolves

None

[tipico]

Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 119, Timberwolves 115

Money line

GIMME the GRIZZLIES (-140) because their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, made a crucial adjustment in Game 2 by sitting big Steven Adams and using more athletic bigs such as Jarren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. to defend Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns.

Even though Adams is a big reason why Memphis was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, the Grizzlies can still outrebound the T-Wolves with Adams off the floor. Memphis nearly tripled Minnesota’s rebounding rate in Game 2 and the Grizzlies have a strength-on-weakness edge on the offensive glass.

Memphis was first in both offensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game (PPG) during the regular season, while Minnesota was 28th in defensive rebounding rate and 25th in second-chance PPG allowed.

The T-Wolves also try to force turnovers that lead to easy baskets but the Grizzlies have a good offensive turnover rate and allow the third-fewest points off of turnovers per game.

Now that Jenkins has found a frontcourt solution that can frustrate KAT, the gap between Memphis’s and Minnesota’s backcourt is wider than the gap between KAT and the Grizzlies’ bigs.

BET the GRIZZLIES (-140) to take Game 3.

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Against the spread

PASS because Memphis’s ML is only 28 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) and Game 3 most likely will be decided by the team that executes better down the stretch. It would be brutal if Memphis eked past Minnesota but the Timberwolves cashed.

However, the Grizzlies are 5-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Minnesota while the T-Wolves are 3-9 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.

If we like Memphis to win outright then the Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) probably gets there but let’s stick with the ML.

Over/Under

PASS.

I “lean” to the Over 236.5 (-115) because the T-Wolves’ role players should knock down more shots now that this series is back in Minnesota. And Memphis’s aggressive and fast-paced style is a nightmare matchup for Minnesota’s defense.

That said, the total has been steamed down by sharp line movement and the professionals seem to be betting the Under 236.5 (-107) while the public is backing the Over. It’s obvious which side we’d prefer to be on even though the Over makes a lot of basketball sense.

PASS.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (1-0) visit FedExForum Tuesday to take on the Memphis Grizzlies (0-1). Tip-off for Game 2 of the first-round playoff series is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Timberwolves stole Game 1 as SportsBook Wire’s Geoff Clark correctly predicted. Keeping that confidence following their 130-117 victory is going to be far more difficult.

In Game 1, G Anthony Edwards scored 36 points while C Karl-Anthony Towns added 29 points and 13 rebounds. The Grizzlies were led by Most Improved Player candidate G Ja Morant, who scored 32.

Minnesota is 43-38-2 against the spread (ATS) this season. While it struggled to cover near the end of the season, going 1-6 ATS, Minnesota has covered both of its postseason battles. It is 13-13 ATS as a road underdog this season.

Memphis was among the best covering teams in the NBA at 52-30-1 ATS. The Grizzlies were the league’s fourth-best team as a home favorite at 19-12 ATS. They’ll look to even the series in Game 2.

Timberwolves at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Timberwolves +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Grizzlies -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +6.5 (-105) | Grizzlies -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 240.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Timberwolves at Grizzlies key injuries

Timberwolves

None

Grizzlies

None

[tipico]

Timberwolves at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 119, Timberwolves 111

Money line

PASS.

Memphis is going to bounce back, but at -300, it’s not worth betting three times a potential return that it manages to even the series. PASS on the Grizzlies money line.

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Against the spread

BET GRIZZLIES -6.5 (-105).

The Grizzlies are too good to get punked twice in a row. Memphis is going to have a better game plan to slow down Edwards.

Edwards only had 1 back-to-back 30-point game this season. He’s averaging 17.1 points per game following a 30-point night. He topped 30 points 9 times this season and scored under 15 in the next game 4 times.

Edwards is too inconsistent to not regress.

Also, the Grizzlies had just 8 offensive rebounds, and they are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. Expect them to be more aggressive on the glass.

Memphis is the superior team, and it’s been great as a home favorite this season. If it can play to its strengths, I expect the Grizzlies to play better while the Wolves and Edwards take a step back.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 240.5 (-110).

The Grizzlies ended the regular season with the sixth-best defensive rating. While the Wolves were red hot in Game 1, Memphis should be able to quench their flame in Game 2.

Minnesota shot 50% from the field and 89% from the free-throw line. That likely won’t be repeated. However, given both teams rank in the top 4 in pace, I wouldn’t suggest a full-unit play.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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