In a women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Sabina Mazo meets Mariya Agapova Saturday at UFC Fight Night 194 – also known as UFC Vegas 39 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 194 Mazo vs. Agapova odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 2 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Mazo is coming off a loss last time out in Feb. against Alexis Davis by way of unanimous decision. That snapped a three-bout win streak, including a victory over Justine Kish in Sept. 2020. Four of her five fights at the UFC level have gone the distance.
The southpaw Agapova has split a pair of fights at the UFC level, topping Hannah Cifers via submission at her UFC debut in June 2020 and getting dropped by a second-round KO/TKO against Shana Dobson two months later.
UFC Fight Night 194 Mazo vs. Agapova: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Mazo -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Agapova +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -180 | No +130)
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UFC Fight Night 194 Mazo vs. Agapova: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Mazo (9-2-0) | Agapova (9-2-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
MAZO (-200) is a punching machine, and laying two times your potential return isn’t terribly out of line, although slightly risky.
The Colombian fighter holds a 6.56-to-3.70 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over her counterpart, while the Kazakh fighter is better if she can get it to the mat.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a roll of the dice as Agapova hasn’t had a pro fight go the distance since July 2019 at Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 3, Week 6. That was one of just three of 11 career pro fights to go the distance.
As such, I also like MAZO BY TKO/KO (+370) for a small-unit play with a chance to near quadruple up. In addition, a two-round block taking MAZO TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+850) and MAZO TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1400) is worth playing. Yes, you’ll lose one of the ends, but if Mazo wins in Rounds 2-3, you’ll be well ahead.
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