In a welterweight bout on the main card, Max Griffin and Michael Morales meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 48 — also known as UFC Vegas 76 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 48: Griffin vs. Morales odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
Records: Griffin (19-9-0) | Morales (14-0-0)
Griffin has been involved in a pair of split-decision results in his past 2 fights, winning against Tim Means last time out in late October and losing to Neil Magny in late March 2022. He has won 4 of the past 5 fights overall, with his past 3 outings going the distance.
Morales is 2-for-2 since making his debut at UFC 270 in January 2022, and each of the victories has been via KO/TKO. He dropped Trevin Giles at UFC 270 in the 1st round and took care of business against Adam Fugitt at UFC 277 in the 3rd round.
Morales has a 1-inch height advantage and a 3-inch reach advantage. He is also 13 years younger than his counterpart.
Morales also holds a 5.36-to-4.23 significant strikes landed advantage and lands them at a 56.64% clip. He also has a slight takedown average advantage at 1.98-to-1.60, although Griffin is more accurate at 50.0% on takedowns.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
UFC on ESPN 48: Griffin vs. Morales odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Griffin +215 (bet $100 to win $215) | Morales -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -134 | Under +104)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -116)
UFC on ESPN 48: Griffin vs. Morales picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Morales (-260) will cost you more than 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not enough reward. There is no value in playing such heavy favorites for a singular wager, and including Morales in a multi-fighter parlay also sucks the value out of a parlay ticket.
Let’s look to the method of victory instead. He has managed 11 KO/TKO victories in 14 career professional bouts — all wins — and has 1 victory via submission. Just 2 of his fights have involved the judges for a decision, and that has happened just once since Dec. 2018.
I like MORALES BY KO/TKO (+195) for a chance to nearly double up. In addition, you can play a Method & Round combo. Roll with MORALES BY KO/TKO & ROUND 1 (+500) and MORALES BY KO/TKO & ROUND 2 (+750) in that category. If he wins in Rounds 1 or 2 via knockout, you will obviously lose one of the ends, but you’ll still be well ahead, too.
There is a risk here, as Griffin hasn’t been knocked out since his debut at UFC 202 against Colby Covington in Aug. 2016. But Morales has a 3-inch reach advantage and will be able to use that to his advantage, picking and choosing spots to move in and out, while keeping Griffin at a distance when needed.
Over/Under (O/U)
WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? NO (-116) is the way to go. Morales doesn’t like to leave it up to the judges to decide a winner. While Griffin has ended up going the distance in 3 straight outings, that will not be the case here.
For a better value, I like UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+104) at plus money.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]