The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-3) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (3-3) Sunday for Game 7 of their Western Conference playoff series at the Footprint Center with tip-off scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas tied this series by crushing Phoenix 113-86 in Game 6 at home Thursday. The Mavs outperformed the Suns in three of the “four factors” and outscored Phoenix in all 4 quarters.
Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic had game-highs in points (33) and assists (8) and added 11 rebounds. Phoenix’s ball security has become an issue in this series and the Suns had an 18-to-22 assist-to-turnover ratio in Game 6.
These teams have split the “four factors” for this series and the home team has won and covered each game and the total is 2-4 Over/Under (O/U).
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:36 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Suns -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) | Suns -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Suns
- None
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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 103, Suns 100
Money line
SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+225), if at all, because their spread is the much sharper play but Dallas’s ML has some value here. Luka is by far the best player in this series and his playoff career numbers are insane through his first 3 postseasons.
Doncic’s dribble penetration has collapsed Phoenix’s perimeter defense and has led to wide-open 3-pointers for the Mavs in this series, which explains Dallas’s absurd 49.9% 3-point attempt rate in the playoffs.
This is concerning because the Suns are neither “making Luka beat them” nor shutting down Luka. If Doncic is “getting his” and finding open teammates on 3-pointers then Dallas could end Phoenix’s season earlier than expected.
Also, the Mavs figure to control the pace of Game 7 since Dallas has the second-best offensive turnover rate in the postseason. Possessions will be even more important in his win-or-go-home Game 7 and the Suns have been careless with the rock in this series.
Again, I’d only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+225) with the plan of hitting Dallas’s spread harder.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-110) instead of or heavier than their ML because these teams are neck-and-neck in this series with the Suns -6.5 (-110) only scoring 1.9 more points per 100 possessions and 1.8 more points per game.
The spread hasn’t been a factor through the first 6 games of this series but, from an efficiency standpoint, there’s not a lot separating these teams and Game 7 should come down to the wire.
Lastly, the “backdoor cover” is wide-open in this game because Dallas obviously will be fighting until the final whistle and a late-game 3-point barrage could cash a MAVERICKS +6.5 (-110) ticket.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 204.5 (-110) because Game 7s typically play Under the total and the Mavericks-Suns series is playing at a slower pace than the NBA postseason average. In fact, Dallas played at the slowest pace during the regular season.
However, the oddsmakers already assumed the Mavericks-Suns Game 7 would be more of a rock-fight because the total is 11 points lower than the Game 5 total set at 215.5.
There isn’t a lot of value in this number, but the UNDER 204.5 (-110) is the only side of the total I’d play.
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