Tag: Mavericks Nets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Dallas Mavericks (42-26) head to Barclays Center Wednesday to play the Brooklyn Nets (36-33) at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas has won seven of its last eight games — 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) — which includes back-to-back road wins at the Houston Rockets Friday (113-110) and Boston Celtics Sunday (95-92).

Brooklyn won its fourth straight game Tuesday after crushing the Magic 150-108 in Orlando as Nets SG Kyrie Irving scored 60 points on 20-for-31 shooting. However, as per the New York City COVID-vaccine mandate, Kyrie will not be playing in Brooklyn Wednesday.

The Nets beat the Mavs 102-99 in Dallas, covering as 1.5-point road favorites in their first meeting Dec. 7.

Mavericks at Nets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Nets +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
• Against the spread: Mavericks -2.5 (-120) | Nets +2.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Mavericks at Nets key injuries

Mavericks

• None

Nets (not yet submitted)

• SG Seth Curry (ankle) questionable
• PG Kyrie Irving (ineligible to play) out
• PG Ben Simmons (reconditioning) out

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Mavericks at Nets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Nets 102

Money line

BET MAVERICKS (-150), all the way up to -170 before laying the points with Dallas instead.

Brooklyn ranks 21st in defensive rating and Dallas performs well and is profitable against teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency.

The Mavs are 15-7 SU versus bottom-10 defenses with a plus-10.1 adjusted net rating (ranked seventh) and a plus-3.5 ATS margin (ranked third), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Dallas is sixth in defensive rating and Brooklyn is 8-15 SU versus top-10 defenses with a minus-3.7 adjusted net rating (ranked 15th) and minus-3.1 ATS margin (ranked 22nd), per CTG.

This is a also way better spot for the Mavs who are 12-3 SU as road favorites (plus-9.5 margin of victory) whereas the Nets are 2-5 SU as home underdogs (minus-11.0 margin of victory) and 2-9 SU in the second of a back-to-back (minus-6.5 margin of victory).

The MAVERICKS MONEY LINE (-150) is my favorite wager in this contest.

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Against the spread

I prefer Dallas’s ML but the MAVERICKS -2.5 (-120) is certainly the right side. Dallas is 11-4 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and has covered seven straight games versus winning teams.

Furthermore, Brooklyn is 2-5 ATS as home underdogs, 2-8-1 ATS on the second of a back-to-back and 3-13-1 ATS at home versus winning teams.

LEAN MAVERICKS -2.5 (-120) since Dallas’s ML is only 30 cents on the dollar more expensive.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 221.5 (-115) because my numbers say this total should be at least 10 points lower.

Both teams have a below-average free-throw attempt rate and a top-10 defensive effective field goal percentage.

There could also be a bunch of one-and-done possessions since Dallas has a low offensive rebounding rate, which helps Brooklyn who struggles closing out possessions on the boards. However, the Nets don’t crash the glass on offense and the Mavs are a fantastic defensive rebounding team.

These teams have a combined 28-37 O/U record when playing teams with a winning record. Since this is a nationally televised, primetime matchup pitting two All-NBA-caliber dudes head-to-head, this game will have more of a playoff atmosphere.

My favorite play in this game is Dallas’s ML, but there’s value in the UNDER 221.5 (-115).

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