The Miami Heat (36-22) host the Dallas Mavericks (36-23) Friday night at AmericanAirlines Arena with tip-off set for 8 p.m. ET. We analyze the Mavericks-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Mavericks at Heat: Key injuries
Mavericks
- SG Luka Doncic (thumb) questionable
- PG Jalen Brunson (shoulder) out
- C Willie Cauley-Stein (personal) out
- C Dwight Powell (Achilles) out
Heat
- PF Bam Adebayo (ankle) probable
- PF Kyle Alexander (knee) out
- C Meyers Leonard (ankle) out
- SG Tyler Herro (ankle) out
Mavericks at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Mavericks 117, Heat 115
Moneyline (ML)
The Heat (-143) have really struggled lately, going 3-7 in their last 10 games, including 1-4 in their last five. The Mavericks (+120) could be without Luka Doncic Friday, but they’ve been playing fairly well of late (6-4 in their last 10).
The problem is, Dallas hasn’t beaten Miami in any of the last five head-to-head meetings and the Heat have been dominant at home, going 23-4 this season at AAA. The Mavericks have actually been better on the road than at home, though, with a 20-9 away record.
Take the MAVERICKS (+120) at plus-money to upset the Heat, which will become an even better wager if Doncic plays.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Mavericks returns a profit of $12.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The Heat come in as 2.5-point home favorites over the Mavericks. Miami has been terrible against the spread in its last 10 games, though, going 3-7 ATS. The Mavericks have covered in six of their last 10 games and are 20-7-2 ATS on the road this season.
Recent matchups haven’t been kind to the Mavericks, with Dallas going 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Miami. The MAVERICKS (+2.5, -106) will cover the spread and stay within 2 points in a loss or win outright.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over/Under is 229.5 points in this matchup. The total has gone Over in eight of the Mavericks’ last 10 games and seven of the Heat’s last 10, including in each of their last five.
This total is accounting for Doncic’s potential absence, but even without him, the Mavs will find enough offense from their big men with Meyers Leonard out and Bam Adebayo not at full health. Take the OVER 229.5 (-110).
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