The white-hot Memphis Grizzlies (30-14) host the Dallas Mavericks (22-19) Friday at FedExForum for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis won its 11th consecutive game Thursday when it beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 116-108 as a 3-point favorite. It was also Memphis’s eighth straight cover.
The Grizzlies have the best non-garbage time net rating at plus-13.0 and the second-best ATS margin at plus-12.0 over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Dallas had its six-game win streak snapped Wednesday when it lost at the New York Knicks 108-85 as a 2.5-point favorite.
The Mavs are second in non-garbage time net rating at plus-12.9 and fourth in ATS margin at plus-6.6 in the last 14 days, per CTG.
Each team is 1-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS in the first two Mavericks-Grizzlies meetings this season with the road team winning and covering both.
Mavericks at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Grizzlies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-108) | Grizzlies -3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Mavericks at Grizzlies key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
Grizzlies (not officially submitted)
- C Steven Adams (non-COVID illness) questionable
- SG Dillon Brooks (ankle) out
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Mavericks at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 113, Grizzlies 108
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Mavs (+133) because this is a scheduled loss for the Grizzlies who are playing their fifth game in seven days.
Memphis played the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles Saturday and Sunday. The Grizzlies then flew all the way back home to host the Golden State Warriors Tuesday in what turned out to be a pressure cooker.
Then Memphis played Minnesota in a seesaw battle Thursday. That’s a lot of basketball in one week while the Mavericks have only played once since Sunday.
My issues with the Mavs at the current price are that I’m higher on the Grizzlies this season and Memphis is much better in clutch situations (defined by games with a 5-point margin with five minutes remaining in regulation).
Dallas is 7-11 SU and dead-last in net rating in clutch situation games while Memphis is 13-5 SU with the sixth-best net rating.
However, I’d wait because the public will bet this surging Grizzlies team and we could get a better number with the Mavs closer to tip-off.
If Dallas’s money line gets to +145 or higher then I’d “sprinkle” on the Mavs outright because I like taking an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.
Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-108) for 1.25 units because of Memphis’s aforementioned hectic schedule and the Grizzlies will have a tough time executing their style in this matchup.
Memphis likes to force turnovers, get out in transition and crash the glass on offense, but Dallas is fifth in offensive turnover rate, third in defensive rebounding rate and plays at the second-slowest pace.
The Mavs also play pretty good transition defense (Dallas ranks 10th in defensive efficiency in transition) and Memphis plays bad defense versus 3-pointers. The Mavs have the seventh-highest 3-point attempt rate and can get hot from deep and the Grizzlies are 25th in defensive 3-point percentage.
Furthermore, this is a good spot for Dallas since it’s 12-6 ATS following a loss with a plus-5.5 ATS margin and 12-10 ATS on the road.
Most importantly, Mavs All-Star G Luka Doncic is 3-1 SU versus Grizzlies PG Ja Morant in their careers and Luka typically gets up for big games and this is a national TV game on ESPN.
BET the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-108).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-112) because I have a hunch Dallas will shoot well Friday and the Over has cashed in four of the last five Mavericks-Grizzlies meetings in Memphis.
That said, it’s only a “LEAN” due to Dallas’s slow pace and good defensive rating, the Mavs have played the highest rate of Unders at 13-26-2 O/U with a minus-5.6 total margin.
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